Jeff Sims, the Offensive Struggles, and Overall Physicality

For your information, here are Sims' career passing stats:

31 TD's / 26 INT's

So, if he "holds to form" I'm not sure his results look too much different than they did against Minnesota. He needs better coaching, and he needs to execute at his position much better than he has throughout his career, in my opinion.


I am not saying Sims is Dan Marino or anything...

But Minnesota was the first time he ever threw 3 picks in a game.  He threw half of his career picks (13 of 26) when he was thrown in to start as a true freshman.  He has shown improvement each year in reducing interceptions.

Interception Percentage

Freshman 5.1%

Sophomore 3.7%

Junior 1.6%

For reference, Thompson had an interception percentage of 3.6% last year.  Adrian's interception percentages were 2.3%, 3.6%, 2.0%, and 3.3% his 4 years here.

 
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@Red Five: I do like your stats on interceptions as a percentage of total throws. That's a good stat because it equalizes all of the various schemes that different QB's play in. So, you're maybe changing my mind there.

Maybe I should have changed "needs to execute at his position much better than he has throughout his career" to something different. But what I'm sticking with though is that coming into this season, I really predicted he was going to struggle throwing the ball in the Big 10. I felt like he was going to struggle hard on 3rd & mediums and especially on 3rd & longs.

But like you mentioned, it was only one game, and it was his only game where he's ever thrown 3 picks.

Another thing though is that we weren't playing from behind really bad all game or anything to where we needed him to throw to win. The game was winnable without throwing much at all.

 
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I've seen some people blaming the O line for his interceptions claiming he was under pressure.  No....just no.  I rewatched the game and there was only one interception where there might have been some pressure and that was was still just a very bad decision.
His first interception he literally had a guy holding onto his leg and got hit up top as he was throwing.  It sailed over Kemp's head and the DB made a nice grab.  2nd was a bad read but I also feel like the play call was bad.  Put 3 rec all within 5 yards of each other making it easier on the defense.  The 3rd he just starred down his target and the db made a nice break.  

 
Just some plays that stood out to me:

  • Piper had a couple whiffs in the run game 
  • Corcoran had some whiffs in the pass game 
  • Reimer came down to the ball nicely 
  • Singleton had some good sticks from the Safety spot 
  • Wright had a few nice plays 
  • DL was alright. Nash made some havoc in the middle
  • DBs were too far off the ball most game
  • Only getting one possession in 1Q (starting from the 1 yard line) wasn't ideal 
  • Sims with some nice runs (obvious poor decisions passing)
  • Two false starts inside the 5 were absolute killers 
  • Throwing 3x in a row after getting ball back with 12 min was mind boggling dumb 



Commercials and the new running clock are going to massively suck vs teams who bleed the clock 

 
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 2nd was a bad read but I also feel like the play call was bad.  Put 3 rec all within 5 yards of each other making it easier on the defense.  The 3rd he just starred down his target and the db made a nice break.  


Again, if you watch that play develop, that bunch of WRs in the corner left our TE wide open in the middle, just across the goal line, crouched and waiting for a TD throw. It was a great call unless Sims wasn't alerted that #87 was a good option. 

 
Piper had a couple whiffs in the run game 
Yes.  And, on one of Corcoran's sack's, he should have been there to help but totally whiffed on it.  Corcoran should have done better.  But, Piper was absolutely worthless on the play.

Two false starts inside the 5 were absolute killers 
Absolutely unacceptable with the amount of experience on the line.

  • Throwing 3x in a row after getting ball back with 12 min was mind boggling dumb 
I was honestly OK with the first shot down field on 1st and 10.  But, the second play should have been a run of some kind.  Then, decide on the third play based on down and distance.  If it's 3rd and short, run again.  If it's 3rd and long, run some form of play action or RPO.

 
Again, if you watch that play develop, that bunch of WRs in the corner left our TE wide open in the middle, just across the goal line, crouched and waiting for a TD throw. It was a great call unless Sims wasn't alerted that #87 was a good option. 
He was open but you know his #1 was the corner.  The TE was in front of his man and the LB who was supposed to work underneath got there way late.  If he would have done his job nobody would have been open.  Dumb play, bad read 

 
He was open but you know his #1 was the corner.  The TE was in front of his man and the LB who was supposed to work underneath got there way late.  If he would have done his job nobody would have been open.  Dumb play, bad read 
Are we sure all the WRs ran the routes they were supposed to?  I'd be surprised if the play design had them all in the same corner of the endzone.

 
He was open but you know his #1 was the corner.  The TE was in front of his man and the LB who was supposed to work underneath got there way late.  If he would have done his job nobody would have been open.  Dumb play, bad read 


It's the decision making part of being a QB. If your #1 is well-covered, you're prepared to throw out of bounds and take the field goal. But you still have a second or two to see if your TE got in front of his man. They designed the TE route for this reason, so it's hard to blame the call. 

Jeff Sims seems to make better decisions running the ball, and that's where the offense is likely headed. It's a simpler scheme, which some fans prefer, but it's going to be easier for DCs to scheme against. One game samples obviously aren't fair, but I can't shake the feeling that Casey Thompson wins that game.

 
He was open but you know his #1 was the corner.  The TE was in front of his man and the LB who was supposed to work underneath got there way late.  If he would have done his job nobody would have been open.  Dumb play, bad read 




Are we sure all the WRs ran the routes they were supposed to?  I'd be surprised if the play design had them all in the same corner of the endzone.




According to this breakdown the routes were right, and the progression should have gone to the hook before the corner, and Sims just failed.

https://black41flashreverse.substack.com/p/offensive-recap-2023-minnesota

Minnesota is in a zone, with the outside corner and safety standing under the “M” in the end zone and dropping deep, and the edge defender (#9) going to the hook/curl area of the field toward the sideline (circled in purple below). The progression on Spot/Snag is first to the flat, here the running back Johnson in purple. The hook/curl defender takes that away, widening to the sideline with Johnson. The second in the progression is the snag route, which comes open when both the safety and corner both cover the corner route (highlighted by the green arrows below):

a6a57500-a334-44d2-a2ec-85963f2bfc4a_2784x1496.png


Sims throws the corner route, a completely inexplicable decision based on the coverage he gets, the behavior of the defenders, his progression, and the situation in the game. With the flat taken away, he should have never gotten past the tight end on the snag route in his progression, sitting shockingly open with the blue arrow above. Screenshotting an open receiver after the fact and dropping a, “Why didn’t you throw it here?” is often misleading and stupid, but this is a play that happens quickly with extremely defined and well-known reads; I think it’s fair under these circumstances to say this was a real bad one. Hopefully Sims is able to learn from that, because it was a good call by NU’s coaching staff that should have been converted for an easy score against one of the best secondaries in the country.
 
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Just some plays that stood out to me:

  • Piper had a couple whiffs in the run game 
  • Corcoran had some whiffs in the pass game 
  • Reimer came down to the ball nicely 
  • Singleton had some good sticks from the Safety spot 
  • Wright had a few nice plays 
  • DL was alright. Nash made some havoc in the middle
  • DBs were too far off the ball most game
  • Only getting one possession in 1Q (starting from the 1 yard line) wasn't ideal 
  • Sims with some nice runs (obvious poor decisions passing)
  • Two false starts inside the 5 were absolute killers 
  • Throwing 3x in a row after getting ball back with 12 min was mind boggling dumb 



Commercials and the new running clock are going to massively suck vs teams who bleed the clock 


Thereinlies the biggest issue to me: our biggest win is going to come if/when Prochaska can get healthy. Corcoran is not a LT, and while Piper is a fantastic ambassador for the program, Teddy getting healthy allots for Corcoran to slide inside to a more natural position. 

 
It's the decision making part of being a QB. If your #1 is well-covered, you're prepared to throw out of bounds and take the field goal. But you still have a second or two to see if your TE got in front of his man. They designed the TE route for this reason, so it's hard to blame the call. 

Jeff Sims seems to make better decisions running the ball, and that's where the offense is likely headed. It's a simpler scheme, which some fans prefer, but it's going to be easier for DCs to scheme against. One game samples obviously aren't fair, but I can't shake the feeling that Casey Thompson wins that game.
I will point this out that just because we can all see an open TE doesn't mean the QB can see him.  He does have large individuals in front of him tryimg to block other large individuals.  If he saw him he needs to get in the throwing lane and hit him.  But he may have had his line of sight covered by linemen.  Also if there wasn't a false start by two linemen who are notorious for jumping then we wouldn't be talking about an INT in the back of the endzone 

 
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