What are your minimum requirements for a successful season?
- Thread starter Mierin
- Start date
MyBloodIsRed16
Active member
If this team stays healthy 9 wins. Won 5 games with injuries to key guys and had a million turnovers. WR room looks much better on paper and now have a QB who can make more throws. Lot or reasons to be optimistic. I think the first game will tell a lot. If they don't win by at least 4 tds its gonna be a long year.
Nebfanatic
New member
Dr. Strangelove
Well-known member
Where a team finishes in rankings isn't an accurate reflection of recruiting talent. Because of talent consolidation among top teams, the gap between the team that finishes 25th in national rankings, for example, is closer to the team that finishes 50th than they are the team that finishes 15th.
Instead of looking at raw finishing in the rankings, which doesn't accurately reflect recruiting prowess because it doesn't consider the distance between the teams. Use the blue chip ratio to determine talent acquisition.
I agree that good coaching and adequate talent can go a long way. I think the Big Ten has good coaching across the board. Brett Bielema at Illinois is a good coach, so is PJ Fleck, so is Kirk Ferentz, and so is Greg Schiano. I think top to bottom, the Big Ten has the best coaching in the country, which is why teams without a lot of talent beat bad teams (like Miami) who have talent.
But this idea that Nebraska is more talented than Wisconsin, Iowa, or some of our other conference peers is... strange. Nebraska has a good advantage over Northwestern, Illinois and perhaps Purdue. The number of Blue Chip players recruited by each school (4 and 5 star players):
2021 2022 2023 2024 4 Year Total
Wisconsin 9 Wisconsin 2 Wisconsin 3 Wisconsin 11 Wisconsin 25
Nebraska 4 Nebraska 2 Nebraska 4 Nebraska 8 Nebraska 18
Iowa 7 Iowa 2 Iowa 2 Iowa 6 Iowa 17
Minnesota 4 Minnesota 2 Minnesota 2 Minnesota 3 Minnesota 11
Rutgers 3 Rutgers 5 Rutgers 0 Rutgers 4 Rutgers 12
Northwestern 3 Northwestern 2 Northwestern 1 Northwestern 0 Northwestern 6
Purdue 1 Purdue 4 Purdue 0 Purdue 5 Purdue 10
Illinois 0 Illinois 0 Illinois 3 Illinois 2 Illinois 5
In the past, I've posted a similar chart that included blue chip transfers - which schools held onto their blue chip talent and kept it in the program. I don't have the time to update the chart or go through my post history. But I do know that Nebraska had the most blue chip transfers. For example, 2 out of the 4 blue chip players Nebraska recruited in 2021 transferred. In 2022, 1 out of the 2 transferred.
I would argue that the idea that Nebraska's roster is significantly more talented than conference rivals like Minnesota, who does a better job of holding onto their blue chip talent is a false one. Nebraska does have a few more blue chip players on its roster, but I don't think that's enough to confidently say that they are much better. It's why we lose to those teams.
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BigRedBuster
Well-known member
When looking at the elite programs of the recent era, you are correct in that they recruit more 4 and 5 star players than we do. However, that's not what we are discussing here. We are discussing the difference between Nebraska and Rutgers recruiting. Recruiting doesn't just encompass the top few of the class. It includes entire classes. On any given Saturday, there are 22 players that start on offense and defense. The difference in recruiting for Nebraska compared to Rutgers, gives us way more better players (according to recruiting analysis) than Rutgers. We out recruit Rutgers and should be winning every game against them. Interestingly, I think we have accomplished that.
And...even looking at your analysis above, we have 50% more "blue chip" recruits than they do. I would say that's significantly out recruiting them.
Dr. Strangelove
Well-known member
My goal wasn't to compare Nebraska to elite programs. Ohio State, for example, recruits more blue chip players every year than Nebraska does in 4 years. It's why Nebraska doesn't belong on the field when they play that type of team. Few teams are able to play at that level. My goal was to demonstrate that the talent gap between the middle teams in the Big Ten - who Nebraska has struggled to consistently beat - isn't significant for anybody other than maybe Wisconsin. Most of Nebraska's conference games are in the toss-up category because the teams are similarly talented.
While there are 22 players on the field, I don't know that the regional 3* player Nebraska recruits is any better than the regional 3* player that Rutgers, Minnesota or Iowa recruits. We all get excited and think that the N on the helmet makes the Nebraska kid better, but the reality is that the probability of that player becoming an NFL draft pick, all conference selection, or All-American is about the same. Unfortunately for Nebraska, one of the worst developmental programs in the country, we haven't done nearly as good of a job developing our roster as our conference rivals. Iowa and Wisconsin are similarly talented and are also among the best developmental programs in the country.
Having "50% more blue chip talent" than Rutgers is great, but in the context of roster size I don't think 6 more blue chip players over a 4 year period on an 85 man scholarship (or 120 man total) roster is hugely significant.
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teachercd
Well-known member
Yep!!
This was pretty much the main reason for firing Bo (that and Bo did not want to give all of us HJ's for being amazing fans)
The Maudfather
New member
- At least 7-5
- Closer to + in turnover margin
- Better QB play
Can't average 4 turnovers from the QB spot this season
[*]Build on last year's defense
Get off the field on 3rd downs more
runningblind
Active member
@Dr. Strangelove@BigRedBuster This is what you are after (not updated for 2024 yet, 2023 is the latest). This is recruiting ranking of every person on the roster, including transfers I believe. This shows we are a little ahead of Wisconsin overall, and a little more ahead of Iowa. We are fairly behind the top 3 in the B1G (last years teams, doesn't include the new 4), for 4th in the conference. We are a good deal ahead of the likes of Purdue/NW/Minny/Rutgers though. We should be beating those teams easily and regularly.
https://247sports.com/Season/2023-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/
https://247sports.com/Season/2023-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/
Enhance
Administrator
I'm not surprised. This program hasn't been bowl eligible since 2016 and we've been sold plenty of off-season snake oil in recent years regarding improved lines, better QB play, RB's who are 'starting to get it' or whatever other superlatives they want to throw at us. I'm personally not going to start predicting 8-9+ seasons again for this program until they prove they can actually do it.
Dr. Strangelove
Well-known member
The issue with including transfers is that it's unclear if that player is already determined to be a "bust" or not.
Out of High School, the probability of a player becoming a bust is fairly well established for 4* and 5* players. If a player goes to Georgia, Ohio State or Bama, doesn't play much and transfers, that player me already be a "bust" at the college or P4 level, but gets counted in the college team talent index as if the probability is yet to be determined.
Examples are 4* transfers like Corey Collier, Stephen Wynn or Kaine Williams. All were busts at their previous programs and didn't play much at Nebraska. But their inclusion in previous Team Talent Lists made Nebraska appear "more talented" than the team actually was.
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