Wistrom Disciple
Well-known member
Again, I understand your argument about expanded opportunities could create parity, but the support you're making for that argument is misaligned. The teams seeded 5-9 are: Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Ohio State & Tennessee... all perennially top 10-20 programs. All start the year as possible contenders every year.This is year 1 of expanded playoffs, immediate change will not happen overnight. There is a very solid likelihood the national champ this year comes from a team currently seeded 5-9. In previous years, these teams weren’t even afforded an opportunity to compete for the title. I get what you’re saying about the difference between opportunity and parity but the lack of opportunity has been one of the main drivers that has hindered CFB historically- there is inherent bias when schools begin the season ranked higher, largely due to previous years performance, and this directly prevents a level playing field when we talk about who’s most deserving to play for a natty.
For instance, some schools have much tougher schedules and one loss in a close game against another top squad left them out of contention in years past. Texas Georgia came down to the wire, Oregon OSU came down to the wire, I think Tennessee is more than capable of knocking off any of these schools.
This is what I mean by an expanded field naturally driving more parity. I am confident that as the years progress and we see more teams have success in the post season and win the title that we will see a greater number of consistent title contenders each year.
The parity you are referencing should focus on the teams at the margins who now are included in the postseason: Boise State, Arizona State, SMU, & Indiana. These four are the newcomers to title talk and would definitely have been left out of a two team championship game or 4-team playoff. Therefore, their opportunities are growing, but they are all still considered afterthoughts when it comes to being title contenders (Vegas odds has the best chance at Indiana +4000, worst is Boise State at +6000).
So while the variety of teams in the playoff is expanding with 12 spots, the on-field parity is really yet to be seen. You may be correct that it will change further as NIL, revenue sharing, transfer rules, etc. expand, but it is too soon to tell whether true parity will come to fruition or not.