Israel - Iran War

Guy Chamberlin said:
What does regime change in Iran look like? 

Seriously, if the mullahs resign tomorrow, what happens next? 
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Per this WSJ article, it could be worse with the Revolutionary Guard ruling. 

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/irans-islamic-revolutionary-guard-poised-for-more-power-7ed0ba63

But the attacks are also increasing the chance of a change in leadership that would concentrate power in the hands of the elite military force, potentially resulting in a more hawkish and anti-Israeli Iran.

Recent Israeli strikes killed many senior Guard personnel, including its top commander and the architect of Iran’s ballistic-missile program. The Revolutionary Guard has responded with daily missile barrages over Tel Aviv, including at military sites and a hospital on Thursday, and warned the U.S. not to get involved.

The war has dealt the most severe blow to Iran in four decades, and thrust it into existential peril. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s rule depends to a large extent on loyalty from the Guard. In turn, he has empowered the military force to the extent that it is likely to outlive the supreme leader. If Khamenei were toppled or killed, the Revolutionary Guard would most likely step in and dictate a new ruler—and in doing so, assume unprecedented power.

“The balance of power within Iran in the aftermath of this will shift in the direction of the military, in the direction of the Guard,” said Ray Takeyh, an Iran expert and senior fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations. “Those in charge will be the men with guns. And they will try to bring back some sort of clerical leadership because, after all, this is an Islamic Republic.” 

Since its formation in 1979, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, has been the most powerful branch of Iran’s armed forces and is separate from—and more powerful than—the national army. It has its own ground forces, navy, air force, intelligence and special forces, totaling roughly 125,000 personnel. It is also deeply embedded in Iran’s economic system, political affairs and social fabric.

The Islamic Republic isn’t a one-man rule but a constellation of power centers coalescing under the supreme leader’s authority. In a fragmented country, the Revolutionary Guard has over time emerged as the single-most powerful actor, partly due to an expansive economic empire.

The U.S. has sought to curb the influence of the Guard by designating it a terrorist organization in 2019 and targeting it with economic sanctions. In 2020, during the first Trump presidency, a U.S. military strike killed Qassem Soleimani, the head of the Guard’s international Quds Force and its most prominent commander.
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ZRod said:
Yes, about the laughy faces. Everything's made up and the points don't matter!
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Eh, because what you said was true, it didn't seem like a joke. Still not clear what was made up, and I wasn't even thinking about "points." Didn't think my response was particularly bent either. 

See how Netanyahu has poisoned your mind? 

 
Archy1221 said:
my post was in regards to the last sentence not the first.  
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Yeah, that's the part I'm talking about. If you'd like to expand on "Good Lord" I'd love to hear it.

My only point regarding laughy emojis is that some posters use them rather than coming up with words and thoughts, often involving a post or subject that isn't funny at all.

Bit cowardly in my book. 

 
Guy Chamberlin said:
Eh, because what you said was true, it didn't seem like a joke. Still not clear what was made up, and I wasn't even thinking about "points." Didn't think my response was particularly bent either. 

See how Netanyahu has poisoned your mind? 
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Gotta lay off the cheeba Guy. The laughy faces are made up and don't matter.




 
Technically, HuskerBoard doesn't matter. And Earth is a speck in the infinite universe.

But here we are. 

On the P&R Board. 

Are you telling me I shouldn't want to punch someone in the face?

 
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Lorewarn said:
f#&% that. Israel can send their troops in.
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Of course that would be preferable. Or give Israel the bombs ….but I don’t think they have a bomber that can deliver them.

I do think it’s imperative that their enrichment facilities get wiped out though. And the elephant in the room is, Iran will blame us regardless of any direct or indirect involvement. They are already blaming us so it’s kinda wishful to think we’ll stay off their s#!t list. But yeah, the more arm’s length we can keep it, the better.

 
No new news here.  Trump is lying again.  But what the hell did he think we used to end WWII?


But that doesn't stop the State Department spokesperson from going full Orwellian.  BTW is she the most cringe worthy spokesperson we've seen to date, regardless of party?  Can you get anymore condescending?


Trump didn't oppose invading Iraq until after the fact. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/10/29/politics/fact-check-trump-false-claim-opposed-iraq-invasion

"What Trump actually said before the war
In his 2000 book “The America We Deserve,” Trump argued that a military strike on Iraq might be necessary."

"Trump wrote that the US still did not know the true status of Iraq’s nuclear program. He then wrote, “I’m no warmonger. But the fact is, if we decide a strike against Iraq is necessary, it is madness not to carry the mission to its conclusion. When we don’t, we have the worst of all worlds: Iraq remains a threat, and now has more incentive than ever to attack us.”

"He continued: “Am I being contradictory here, by presenting myself as a deal-maker and then recommending preemptive strikes? I don’t think so. There’s nothing really comparable to unleashing a squadron of bombers, but in the world of business sometimes you have to make quick, secret, decisive moves in order to gain a negotiating advantage.”

"When radio host Howard Stern asked Trump in September 2002 if he is “for invading Iraq,” Trump responded, “Yeah, I guess so. I wish the first time it was done correctly.”

"Trump did not express a firm opinion about the looming war in a Fox interview in January 2003, saying that “either you attack or don’t attack” and that President George W. Bush “has either got to do something or not do something, perhaps.”

 
Guy Chamberlin said:
Yeah, that's the part I'm talking about. If you'd like to expand on "Good Lord" I'd love to hear it.

My only point regarding laughy emojis is that some posters use them rather than coming up with words and thoughts, often involving a post or subject that isn't funny at all.

Bit cowardly in my book. 
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Man, what till you see how many I get with no comment.   That didn’t seem to bother you 🤷‍♂️

 
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