B1G Week 7

Wisconsin is straight up dog s*** under Fickell. That program rolled the dice, wanting to win conference titles instead of just having "good" seasons...welcome to the club.

Ped State is wandering lost right now. You love to see it.
 
Mavric said:
Somebody help me out:

Michigan scored a TD to get the score to 24-13 = down by 11 (9:17 to play in the game). Then they go for two (and don't get it).

Why do you want so badly to be down 9 instead of down 10? So a TD (+PAT) and FG will win it?
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I texted my family that coaches are bad at knowing when to go for two or not after I saw that. Just a stupid decision.
 
Mavric said:
Somebody help me out:

Michigan scored a TD to get the score to 24-13 = down by 11 (9:17 to play in the game). Then they go for two (and don't get it).

Why do you want so badly to be down 9 instead of down 10? So a TD (+PAT) and FG will win it?
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The make outcome helps you more than the miss outcome hurts you.

You still have to score a TD and a FG in either scenario.

In the scenario that you just kick the PAT, and then kick another, then you have to win overtime.

In the scenario that you kick the PAT, then go for two at the end of the game to win it, you're limiting yourself to one chance to win or lose.

If you go for 2 on the first one, you give yourself that chance to (be set up to) win, but you still have another chance to tie if you don't get it.
 
Lorewarn said:
The make outcome helps you more than the miss outcome hurts you.

You still have to score a TD and a FG in either scenario.

In the scenario that you just kick the PAT, and then kick another, then you have to win overtime.

In the scenario that you kick the PAT, then go for two at the end of the game to win it, you're limiting yourself to one chance to win or lose.

If you go for 2 on the first one, you give yourself that chance to (be set up to) win, but you still have another chance to tie if you don't get it.
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This is exactly wrong. Making the two point conversion is below 50%, so you're more likely to miss than make it. Plus making it is MUCH less likely than making the XP. Missing the two point conversion means you MUST make the next two point conversion or you lose the game. Making both XP is very likely and allows you a chance in overtime.

The only reason to go for it is if you think you aren't going to win in overtime AND you have a two point conversion play you are very confident will succeed.

Basically, you should always kick the XP in that situation.
 
RedDenver said:
This is exactly wrong. Making the two point conversion is below 50%, so you're more likely to miss than make it. Plus making it is MUCH less likely than making the XP. Missing the two point conversion means you MUST make the next two point conversion or you lose the game. Making both XP is very likely and allows you a chance in overtime.

The only reason to go for it is if you think you aren't going to win in overtime AND you have a two point conversion play you are very confident will succeed.

Basically, you should always kick the XP in that situation.
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I'm not claiming it's right or wrong, I'm just explaining the logic.

There is actual math involved that I'm not privy to, but it ultimately comes down to the odds of making one of two 2-pt conversions and the odds of winning overtime being close enough that the added benefit of potentially setting up for the win says to go for it.

It's not the right decision for each team or each scenario but there are plenty where that makes sense.
 
Lorewarn said:
I'm not claiming it's right or wrong, I'm just explaining the logic.

There is actual math involved that I'm not privy to, but it ultimately comes down to the odds of making one of two 2-pt conversions and the odds of winning overtime being close enough that the added benefit of potentially setting up for the win says to go for it.

It's not the right decision for each team or each scenario but there are plenty where that makes sense.
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I agree it sometimes makes sense. But not in that scenario.
 
Lorewarn said:
The make outcome helps you more than the miss outcome hurts you.

You still have to score a TD and a FG in either scenario.

In the scenario that you just kick the PAT, and then kick another, then you have to win overtime.

In the scenario that you kick the PAT, then go for two at the end of the game to win it, you're limiting yourself to one chance to win or lose.

If you go for 2 on the first one, you give yourself that chance to (be set up to) win, but you still have another chance to tie if you don't get it.
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This is 100% the new NFL way to do things.

It seems to be catching on in CFB too.
 
SuperBigFan69 said:
This is 100% the new NFL way to do things.

It seems to be catching on in CFB too.
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I watched SF vs TB and they did a similarly stupid one. TB is up 14-13 in the first half, score a TD, go for two, and miss it. Because of that, later in the game the score was 27-19, which kept SF within a single score because TB stupidly went for two earlier.

Whoever is telling changes when to go for two either needs to learn game theory or how to apply it correctly because they such at it.
 
RedDenver said:
I watched SF vs TB and they did a similarly stupid one. TB is up 14-13 in the first half, score a TD, go for two, and miss it. Because of that, later in the game the score was 27-19, which kept SF within a single score because TB stupidly went for two earlier.

Whoever is telling changes when to go for two either needs to learn game theory or how to apply it correctly because they such at it.
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Yeah, I don't know why it has caught on but it keeps getting more popular.
 
RedDenver said:
This is exactly wrong. Making the two point conversion is below 50%, so you're more likely to miss than make it. Plus making it is MUCH less likely than making the XP. Missing the two point conversion means you MUST make the next two point conversion or you lose the game. Making both XP is very likely and allows you a chance in overtime.

The only reason to go for it is if you think you aren't going to win in overtime AND you have a two point conversion play you are very confident will succeed.

Basically, you should always kick the XP in that situation.
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I do think the math says to go for two. I just didn't extend it to being down the extra score. I've usually seen it as you should go for two when you score a TD to get it to eight. I guess the same logic probably applies to being down 11.

Last year, college teams converted two-point attempts at 45.8%. Granted that was higher than historic. But that gives you a pretty good chance to make one out of two. And when you factor in the chance of losing in overtime (50/50-ish), the math probably saying going for it on the first TD makes sense.
 
Mavric said:
I do think the math says to go for two. I just didn't extend it to being down the extra score. I've usually seen it as you should go for two when you score a TD to get it to eight. I guess the same logic probably applies to being down 11.

Last year, college teams converted two-point attempts at 45.8%. Granted that was higher than historic. But that gives you a pretty good chance to make one out of two. And when you factor in the chance of losing in overtime (50/50-ish), the math probably saying going for it on the first TD makes sense.
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Even at 46%, that's less than a 50/50 chance. The chance of missing both two point tries is (1-.46)*(1-.46)=0.29. That's a 29% chance of losing without even giving your team a chance in overtime.
 
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