"A lock to beat Iowa"
I like your version better than mine. Iowa looks to me to be the toughest team left on our slate. If I had to pick our most likely loss it would be Iowa. An always great defense now has a potent offense.
Iowa is the best team left on the schedule, but I wouldn't be shocked at winning or losing any of the remaining games.
I know UCLA's home field advantage is next to nothing, but they've gotten better. It's the first start for Lateef, on the road and they've had an extra week to prepare. We haven't done a good job containing mobile QBs, although I do think QB run was what Butler was willing to allow in the gameplan against Cincy and MSU more than a permanent weakness. You can't take away everything - against UCLA, containing QB run game will be a priority.
Penn State is a dumpster fire and
we have the extra week, but Happy Valley is a tough place to play and they are still really talented. Not an easy place for a freshman QB to play, and they will test the run defense. Best case is they get blown out by Indiana and then drop the MSU game on the road (which I do not expect) to eliminate themselves from bowl contention. They may be completely checked out when they get to us anyway, but if they're not even eligible for a bowl we could see a team full of 3rd stringers.
Iowa is again the best team, but it's a home game that this team desperately wants to win, and they are not difficult to prepare for. "Potent offense" might be a stretch - the ppg (31.2) are good, but buoyed by 4 defensive/special teams TDs and some incredible field position. Other teams have short drives, so maybe it's not as much of an outlier as I think, but they have two 1-yard TD drives and I think four other TD drives of less than 25 yards. They are difficult to
play because they will punch us in the mouth and test whether this defense can stop the run consistently enough. But for once special teams is not a massive advantage for them, I think we can make them throw enough to get a pick or two, and frankly I like an offensive gameplan with a mobile QB against them. If Lateef is turnover prone it's another story.