I do not agree, except to say that the coach is the variable that effects immediate success. There is an exception, if you happen to put together a long enough run with a legend or two to build a History, then I would concur. I would argue the predicatable factors (coaches are tough), over the long term, are...
1) Money
2) Geographic access to good recruits
3) Great Fan Base
4) History / Game day experience (related because history that is too stale, that no one gets excited about, is not too valuable.)
5) Great facilities
6) Proximity to fans to fill stadium (which effects Money, fan base and game day experience)
On a side note, NU does spend a fair amount, pretty close to OU in spending (within 20%).
1. Money - Money is important to attract a good coach and have good facilities. Also to pay recruits under the table.
2. Geography - Not so important. Kids want to play where they will be successful, where they will be seen on TV, and somewhere that gives them a good shot at going to the NFL. A good coach sells them on all of these things and convinces them to join his program. How do you think Osborn was able to get all those kids from FL and NJ to come to NU?
3. Great fan base - Another selling point to recruits. Great fans fill the stadium through thick and thin, not just when the team is winning. A great fan base would never allow another school to outnumber them a home games (I was in the sea of red in Lawrence in '98).
4a. History - Selling point. Also builds the fan base. Players want to play where they saw other great players, but not as much as they want to be on TV.
4b. Game day experience - More for the fans than the players, but bringing in recruits to a packed house going crazy for the home team can seal the deal.
5. Great facilities - Not that important. Snyder build a some very good teams with the worst facilities in the conference. Kids want to play for a winner.
6. Proximity to fans - Aren't most fans already close to the school? It's not like the majority of fans at NU games have to be bussed in from Ohio.
All these things can attract top recruits, but unless you have a good coach who can develop the talent (Osborne, Snyder, Mangino), a top 5 recruiting class is for naught (Callahan, Blake, Neuheisel).
I put your points in red, I thought you would appreciate that, then answered each. This article was not on recruiting (although that is a part of it), it was on the factors that I think will lead to the long term success of a program that are quantifiable. I left out specific playes and coaches, as those are variables that cannot be predicted over the long term, outside of the definable factors that raise the odds of getting good ones.
1. Money - Money is important to attract a good coach and have good facilities. Also to pay recruits under the table.
I guess we agree, I am not using long term cheating as part of the prediction.
2. Geography - Not so important. Kids want to play where they will be successful, where they will be seen on TV, and somewhere that gives them a good shot at going to the NFL. A good coach sells them on all of these things and convinces them to join his program. How do you think Osborn was able to get all those kids from FL and NJ to come to NU?
NJ kids did not have a lot choices nearby, but that helped Penn State, but they tended to be more willing to travel. I guess maybe you did not take my advice in looking to the deep south at how many top kids are leaving their state. California, Florida and Texas kids are definitely more willing to leave their state, but the emergence of so many good programs in places like Florida has made it harder to get that talent out. I would argue that you do not like this arguement because it hurts Nebraska. Lots of stories in the media have shown ths to be true, but good look with beating UT, USC and Florida in recruiting...
3. Great fan base - Another selling point to recruits. Great fans fill the stadium through thick and thin, not just when the team is winning. A great fan base would never allow another school to outnumber them a home games (I was in the sea of red in Lawrence in '98).
This is literally inane. How could KU have some of the best basketball fans in the US, and yet be so allegedly terrible? Well, if one looks, a team that is consitently mediocre or bad over a long period of time will not have many fans. A really good team, with a built up fan base whose fans have a tradition of supporting their team, will have that momentum to help them throught he bad times. The fans follow the sustained success of the team. Go to an SMU game, where did their fans all go? They used to have em, but they lost their momentum. The more built up your fan base is, though, the bigger the speed bumps your program can get through and maintain itself.
4a. History - Selling point. Also builds the fan base. Players want to play where they saw other great players, but not as much as they want to be on TV.
Granted this is a bit of a mixed bag for a given recruit, but this is not a recruiting article. History attracts other factors, not just recruits. It inspires alumni, helps maintain fan support and improves the gameday experience.
4b. Game day experience - More for the fans than the players, but bringing in recruits to a packed house going crazy for the home team can seal the deal.
Indeed, and this is about the long term success of the progeam, so both about fans and recruits, and both like this part. In the end, this gives fans more reason to pack up each year and show up at the games.
5. Great facilities - Not that important. Snyder build a some very good teams with the worst facilities in the conference. Kids want to play for a winner.
Very important, this did hurt recruiting and it is why K-State could not maintain it's success and risks losing a lot of its progress right now. Go name some real sustained powers without good facilities, if K-State is the best you have, you are making this point for me.
6. Proximity to fans - Aren't most fans already close to the school? It's not like the majority of fans at NU games have to be bussed in from Ohio.
Are you in business? If you are, you know they do not put Best Buy in little towns in western Nebrsaska. Why, because no one would go. Collee sports needs to fill seats. It helps to be in a sweet spot. Close enough to fans to be able to really pack a big stadium, but it can get too big, and then pro sports can come along and make for competition. (See NY metro area as an example where college sports is hurt by so many pro teams). K-State is a fine example. It is really far from most of it's fans, over 2 hours from Kansas City and Witchita, fo rinstnace. Yeah, they have closer fans, but it is hard ot fill an 80,000 seat stadium with their population proximity. Also, when your team goes mediocre, if fans were driving 3 hours each way, that means their tolerance for that sort of effort to see a mediocre product is a little more at risk.
In summary, I do not agree with you. Coaches make a big difference, but that is one of those things that is hard to predict, other than by using the factors (i.e. Money does help with coaches). I think your logic is to focused on how things are, not how they get ot be that way, and how they stay that way.
