Say it ain't so!

[hack]

bo defies your petty 'math'!

 

[caveman99]

He may have something close to give us something to talk about, but seems to me that you can easily get pretty close if you study patterns of this team should win this and should win that right? Not dogging on this formula it just seems like most people can make some of these predictions and get just as close without a formula. 2 games off is kinda big. In some cases 2 games determines whether or not you make it to a bowl game or go undefeated or not...wouldn't you agree? I love the speculation don't get me wrong, I just love picking at formulas though since I hate them.

Yes, I see what you are saying. Maybe you should make a formula to rank who has the best predictions :bang

Seriously, two games does make a big difference, but this far out with all the intangibles (who gets injured, sho gets suspended, whacky weather during one game, trying the same fake field goal one too many times) is a crap shoot. It is much easier to predict one game at a time. This is why I gave a two game lee way.

You mean like this site?

Prediction Accuracy Rankings

 

[huskered17]

He may have something close to give us something to talk about, but seems to me that you can easily get pretty close if you study patterns of this team should win this and should win that right? Not dogging on this formula it just seems like most people can make some of these predictions and get just as close without a formula. 2 games off is kinda big. In some cases 2 games determines whether or not you make it to a bowl game or go undefeated or not...wouldn't you agree? I love the speculation don't get me wrong, I just love picking at formulas though since I hate them.

Yes, I see what you are saying. Maybe you should make a formula to rank who has the best predictions :bang

Seriously, two games does make a big difference, but this far out with all the intangibles (who gets injured, sho gets suspended, whacky weather during one game, trying the same fake field goal one too many times) is a crap shoot. It is much easier to predict one game at a time. This is why I gave a two game lee way.

You mean like this site?

Prediction Accuracy Rankings

Excellent site, to see how these preseason prediction sites do each year. Looks like Phil Steele's and Athlon are the best of the bunch. Thanks for the info.

GBR!!!

 

[HuskerJen]

2009 Schedule
9/5 FAU W

9/12 Arkansas State W

9/19 at Virginia Tech L

9/26 Louisiana-Lafayette W

10/8 at Missouri L

10/17 Texas Tech L

10/24 Iowa State W

10/31 at Baylor W

11/7 Oklahoma L

11/14 at Kansas L

11/21 Kansas State W

11/27 at Colorado W

Okay here are the problems I have with these picks...

1. The loss at Virginia Tech isn't a given. The Huskers damn near beat the Hokies with a team that committed way too many mental errors.

2. This person is obviously basing the predicted losses to Missouri and Texas Tech based on the past and does not take into account coaching changes (Nebraska) and personnel losses (Missouri and Texas Tech).

3. To assume Nebraska will lose in Lawrence is foolish and probably based on what happened in previous years.

Now could this prediction happen? Sure. But I wouldn't count on it. We have finally have a great coaching staff, the team has a better attitude, they practice better and the gameplans are 100% better.

Oh and not to mention that this coaching staff can actually game plan in such a way where they can put players in the right spots to make plays.

 

[Hokieluv]

2009 Schedule
9/5 FAU W

9/12 Arkansas State W

9/19 at Virginia Tech L

9/26 Louisiana-Lafayette W

10/8 at Missouri L

10/17 Texas Tech L

10/24 Iowa State W

10/31 at Baylor W

11/7 Oklahoma L

11/14 at Kansas L

11/21 Kansas State W

11/27 at Colorado W

Okay here are the problems I have with these picks...

1. The loss at Virginia Tech isn't a given. The Huskers damn near beat the Hokies with a team that committed way too many mental errors.

2. This person is obviously basing the predicted losses to Missouri and Texas Tech based on the past and does not take into account coaching changes (Nebraska) and personnel losses (Missouri and Texas Tech).

3. To assume Nebraska will lose in Lawrence is foolish and probably based on what happened in previous years.

Now could this prediction happen? Sure. But I wouldn't count on it. We have finally have a great coaching staff, the team has a better attitude, they practice better and the gameplans are 100% better.

Oh and not to mention that this coaching staff can actually game plan in such a way where they can put players in the right spots to make plays.

I'm working on my PhD with forecasting as my specialty. Take it from me, using multiple regression can predict just about anything, and many of our models are accurate... on average. However, I really don't think any model can accurately predict what will happen on September 19 in Blacksburg, besides being one heck of a fun day thanks to two great teams and two great fan-bases.

 

[JGS30]

This site has predicted W/L for each team with some formula. It predicts a 1st place in the north between Kansas and Missouri, with Kansas winning the head to head between those two. (Each with 9-3 records and 5-3 in conference).

While it could happen, I'll be very disappointed if we don't do a little better than 7-5 and 4-4, as this formula dictates.

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/analysi...welve_nebr.html

His picks don't seem to outrageous. <_<

 

[HuskerJen]

2009 Schedule
9/5 FAU W

9/12 Arkansas State W

9/19 at Virginia Tech L

9/26 Louisiana-Lafayette W

10/8 at Missouri L

10/17 Texas Tech L

10/24 Iowa State W

10/31 at Baylor W

11/7 Oklahoma L

11/14 at Kansas L

11/21 Kansas State W

11/27 at Colorado W

Okay here are the problems I have with these picks...

1. The loss at Virginia Tech isn't a given. The Huskers damn near beat the Hokies with a team that committed way too many mental errors.

2. This person is obviously basing the predicted losses to Missouri and Texas Tech based on the past and does not take into account coaching changes (Nebraska) and personnel losses (Missouri and Texas Tech).

3. To assume Nebraska will lose in Lawrence is foolish and probably based on what happened in previous years.

Now could this prediction happen? Sure. But I wouldn't count on it. We have finally have a great coaching staff, the team has a better attitude, they practice better and the gameplans are 100% better.

Oh and not to mention that this coaching staff can actually game plan in such a way where they can put players in the right spots to make plays.

I'm working on my PhD with forecasting as my specialty. Take it from me, using multiple regression can predict just about anything, and many of our models are accurate... on average. However, I really don't think any model can accurately predict what will happen on September 19 in Blacksburg, besides being one heck of a fun day thanks to two great teams and two great fan-bases.

Just some food for thought...

Before Nebraska played Clemson in the Gator Bowl some site simulated the game 1,000 times and Clemson won between 65-70% of the simulations.

 

[Hokieluv]

2009 Schedule
9/5 FAU W

9/12 Arkansas State W

9/19 at Virginia Tech L

9/26 Louisiana-Lafayette W

10/8 at Missouri L

10/17 Texas Tech L

10/24 Iowa State W

10/31 at Baylor W

11/7 Oklahoma L

11/14 at Kansas L

11/21 Kansas State W

11/27 at Colorado W

Okay here are the problems I have with these picks...

1. The loss at Virginia Tech isn't a given. The Huskers damn near beat the Hokies with a team that committed way too many mental errors.

2. This person is obviously basing the predicted losses to Missouri and Texas Tech based on the past and does not take into account coaching changes (Nebraska) and personnel losses (Missouri and Texas Tech).

3. To assume Nebraska will lose in Lawrence is foolish and probably based on what happened in previous years.

Now could this prediction happen? Sure. But I wouldn't count on it. We have finally have a great coaching staff, the team has a better attitude, they practice better and the gameplans are 100% better.

Oh and not to mention that this coaching staff can actually game plan in such a way where they can put players in the right spots to make plays.

I'm working on my PhD with forecasting as my specialty. Take it from me, using multiple regression can predict just about anything, and many of our models are accurate... on average. However, I really don't think any model can accurately predict what will happen on September 19 in Blacksburg, besides being one heck of a fun day thanks to two great teams and two great fan-bases.

Just some food for thought...

Before Nebraska played Clemson in the Gator Bowl some site simulated the game 1,000 times and Clemson won between 65-70% of the simulations.

I predict that the Huskers will beat twice as many teams from Kansas as from Iowa. I also predict that they will beat twice as many teams from Texas as from Colorado. Finally, my models suggest that the chance of beating a team from the Show Me State is greater than the chance that you will lose to a team from Florida. That's what I can get out of my crystal ball!

 

[Scarlet Overkill]

I predict that the Huskers will beat twice as many teams from Kansas as from Iowa. I also predict that they will beat twice as many teams from Texas as from Colorado. Finally, my models suggest that the chance of beating a team from the Show Me State is greater than the chance that you will lose to a team from Florida. That's what I can get out of my crystal ball!

:clap

Now there's a prediction I can learn to love in under 2 seconds, but the post is worthless without tables, charts and graphs!