I'll raise the odds from 1% to 5%. I still don't think there's a reasonable chance. This happens all the time. Big name recruit keeps Nebraska on the list until late because of great fans, tradition, etc. But those things almost never trump location and a manipulative (or good, whichever term you prefer) recruiter like Rick Neuheisel. I also don't think it's ever as simple as, "He wants to go to A, his mom/dad/uncle/coach wants him to go to B." I'm sure Owa loves a lot of things about Nebraska football-wise, but in the back of his mind he has never considered them the leader.
For me it goes all the way back to Carlyle Holiday. This was when the online recruiting services were just starting up and everyone was obsessing over Carlyle. He was the option quarterback to lead us back to the promised land. It was down to Notre Dame and us, and the story floating around the forums was that his mom (if I remember correctly) wanted him to go to ND, and he wanted to go to Nebraska. I never bought that it could be that simple. And although I continued to obsess over his recruitment, I always had the feeling that we just weren't really as in it as we all thought. Sure enough, he went to ND. And ever since then, the same type of story repeats itself over and over and over. When we are in the running for an elite recruit (I'm talking Rivals 100) going into the final week before NSD, we end up getting beat 99% of the time.
I know I'm being a bigtime Scrooge here, and I'll gladly eat the crow if he ends up a Husker, but I just don't see anyway to be optimistic here.