HuskerNLimbo
Five-Star Recruit
That is some mad SASS action. Nice work! :thumbs
Team Ranking (w the 3 targets)
- Thread starter kchusker_chris
- Start date
kchusker_chris
All-American
It certainly doesn't look like the calculations work nearly as well until you get a little closer to that 20 player mark, then it all evens out. I think Rivals assumes that most classes will reach 20. Essentially, we should all take the rankings with a grain of salt until later in process. (most of you would argue to take them w/ a grain of salt at all times - i like em, but tend to agree)Before Marsh the class value was 1152, after it was 1146. In the forumula average stars play into the N value. Marsh took the average star count from 3.22 to 3.15 which cost us 7 points in the "N" value of the formula.
If you took out Evans, Marsh and Cotton the class would be around 1166 by my calculations, this is where the formula has a flaw IMO, it's better NOT to take 2*'s and have open spots than add them.
And by my calculations, if you dropped all of the 3 stars except Vestal and Moody, and then added Owa, Carnes and Cooper we would be at 1249.
So Rivals thinks just having Owa, Cooper and Carnes is better than the combo of Ashburn, Bell, Enunwa, Evans, Guy, Jackson, Mitchell and Okuyemi. 1 5 star and 2 4 stars is worth more than 8 3 stars. That deserves a
I'd say there are groups. 1-10, 11-30, 30+ You could easily find superiority in the top 10 classes vs. the classes over 30, but the different between a #3 class and a #8 class is not really measurable. Likewise with the classes in the teens and 20's. Is Mizzou's class really that much better than ours? Probably not, but I'd say Florida's looks to have more pure tallent than our's (sorry if I offended some of you Bo worshippers w/ that)
caveman99
All-American
Alright, I'm your Huckleberry. I don't disagree that Florida's recruiting class looks better on paper. I love to see top recruiting classes just like you do, I am just as enthralled to get Owa, Cooper, and Carnes, I want NU to have a Top 15 or 20 class this year. I think we disagree how important it is to have Top 10 classes each and every year, actually I think you said a Top 3 class.It certainly doesn't look like the calculations work nearly as well until you get a little closer to that 20 player mark, then it all evens out. I think Rivals assumes that most classes will reach 20. Essentially, we should all take the rankings with a grain of salt until later in process. (most of you would argue to take them w/ a grain of salt at all times - i like em, but tend to agree)Before Marsh the class value was 1152, after it was 1146. In the forumula average stars play into the N value. Marsh took the average star count from 3.22 to 3.15 which cost us 7 points in the "N" value of the formula.
If you took out Evans, Marsh and Cotton the class would be around 1166 by my calculations, this is where the formula has a flaw IMO, it's better NOT to take 2*'s and have open spots than add them.
And by my calculations, if you dropped all of the 3 stars except Vestal and Moody, and then added Owa, Carnes and Cooper we would be at 1249.
So Rivals thinks just having Owa, Cooper and Carnes is better than the combo of Ashburn, Bell, Enunwa, Evans, Guy, Jackson, Mitchell and Okuyemi. 1 5 star and 2 4 stars is worth more than 8 3 stars. That deserves a
I'd say there are groups. 1-10, 11-30, 30+ You could easily find superiority in the top 10 classes vs. the classes over 30, but the different between a #3 class and a #8 class is not really measurable. Likewise with the classes in the teens and 20's. Is Mizzou's class really that much better than ours? Probably not, but I'd say Florida's looks to have more pure tallent than our's (sorry if I offended some of you Bo worshippers w/ that)
The 5 year averages show that even the best teams don't recruit that well every year. Per your suggestion, I have started to gather the roster and participation information for the participants of the last 4 MNC Games so I can add weight to each of the 5 classes that made up those teams. Should be interesting at the very least. The teams playing in the MNC have a 5 year un-weighted recruiting class ranking average just above 10. Playing on the point that you mentioned just made about the difference in classes being small within a certain range, I am not so sure that there is much of a difference between a 15th rated class and a 10th rated class. I do think that getting a few of those highly ranked classes seems to be a common factor though, but frankly I think NU gets one next year. Keep the level of talent inside the Top 20, preferably around the Top 15, and get a Top 10 class every 2 or 3 years and that would get the NU pretty close to a 5 year recruiting ranking average of 10. History seems to show that this would be enough.
Pat Forde's recent article on ESPN had a great line, "signing day is just the launching pad, not the landing zone." This says it all IMO, I put a lot more emphasis on the abilities of a Coach to set the environment and develop these young men to their fullest potential. A big part of that is getting talent with the type of character that exemplifies what is needed to succeed in a particular environment. A lot of great talent is in Florida, Texas, and California, a good portion of those players don't want to go where it is cold, want to stay close to home, etc. It takes a certain kind of player that wants to leave that and go to NU, add to that the environment of constant competition that Bo demands as well as system needs and that weeds out another group of players. I think NU can get elite talent, and getting Owa would prove that, I just don't think that NU can get it in the same numbers as some other teams. I will however say that NU has an advantage in Coaching that I think can nullify the differences in recruiting classes.
kchusker_chris
All-American
I agree, I think NU will have a VERY hard time ever competing against teams like Florida on the recruiting trail. Although, give us a couple National Championships in a 3 year span and I might be completely wrong. Florida has an advantage in that area. Kids tend to want to play for winning programs. Unfortunately, most of these kids were about 5 years old the last time we were really dominating college football.
I do "slightly" disagree w/ your statement that we have an avantage in coaching. True, over 99% of the teams out there we certainly do. Over EVERY team in the BIG12 North that's obvious. However, I would say that Bo still has a little ways to go in order to prove that his "entire" staff is better than the other 1%. You look at the rankings of Watson's offenses in the big12 since his time with CO - it's not all that impressive. Fortunately w/ Bo's D, middle of the pack should be enough. I'd argue the staffs at Florida, Texas, Alabama, & Oklahoma are superior to ours...at least to this point, and those are the ones we'll be fighting for NC's with in the near future. A lot of seasons we'll have to play 2 of those 4. I'd say we match up well with LSU, USC, Georgia, Oregon (though Kelley is building a solid program - minus the thugs), Virginia Tech, etc. All teams on the cusp, but not quite over the hump. (LSU made it over the hump but they had Bo then too)
We'll see, I like our chances. We can once again dominate the North I believe, and after his showing in the big12 championship game I'd give Bo an even chance of winning the Big12 any day of the week. Win the Big12, probably have a spot in the NC. I bet we are playing for NC's regularly for the next 10-15 years. What I'm not convinced of yet is if we can beat the Florida's or the Alabama's. Ohio State makes a lot of NC and BCS games, but they always lay an egg. They are usually outmatched when it comes to tallent - and that starts w/ recruiting. If we face Florida or Alabama next year for the NC...we'll be outmatched when it comes to tallent as well. If I had to bet my house on the game, I'd go w/ tallent.
I do "slightly" disagree w/ your statement that we have an avantage in coaching. True, over 99% of the teams out there we certainly do. Over EVERY team in the BIG12 North that's obvious. However, I would say that Bo still has a little ways to go in order to prove that his "entire" staff is better than the other 1%. You look at the rankings of Watson's offenses in the big12 since his time with CO - it's not all that impressive. Fortunately w/ Bo's D, middle of the pack should be enough. I'd argue the staffs at Florida, Texas, Alabama, & Oklahoma are superior to ours...at least to this point, and those are the ones we'll be fighting for NC's with in the near future. A lot of seasons we'll have to play 2 of those 4. I'd say we match up well with LSU, USC, Georgia, Oregon (though Kelley is building a solid program - minus the thugs), Virginia Tech, etc. All teams on the cusp, but not quite over the hump. (LSU made it over the hump but they had Bo then too)
We'll see, I like our chances. We can once again dominate the North I believe, and after his showing in the big12 championship game I'd give Bo an even chance of winning the Big12 any day of the week. Win the Big12, probably have a spot in the NC. I bet we are playing for NC's regularly for the next 10-15 years. What I'm not convinced of yet is if we can beat the Florida's or the Alabama's. Ohio State makes a lot of NC and BCS games, but they always lay an egg. They are usually outmatched when it comes to tallent - and that starts w/ recruiting. If we face Florida or Alabama next year for the NC...we'll be outmatched when it comes to tallent as well. If I had to bet my house on the game, I'd go w/ tallent.
caveman99
All-American
Fair enough comment on the coaching abilities, I admit a large part of my confidence in this staff is because of what they did on the defensive side of the ball. There is work to do on the offensive side of the ball for sure, but I would put the defensive staff up with anyone in the country. I will take a more of wait and see approach on the Offensive Side, but if the staff as a whole is a very good one then that should offset some talent deficiencies IMO. Scheme and well developed players can make even the best teams look bad, just like NU in the 90's with TO's offense. NU did recruit pretty well, but we weren't on an elite top 3 level in recruiting rankings. I think Bo can and will have to do a bit of the same, recruit pretty well as defined previously, yet use his Coaching Prowess to offset the rest of the difference.
kchusker_chris
All-American
Andy Staples disagrees with your recruiting rankings from the 90's. And of course this is in retrospect - at the time of signing this 92' class was not viewed as "one of the best all time" Maybe Bo can add one of these 20th ranked classes to the best all time. If he does, the list of notables will be all defensive guys
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/andy_staples/01/29/best-classes/2.html
EDIT: Didn't notice someone had already posted this link in another forum and you already commented on it caveman. To quick for me.
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caveman99
All-American
Yeah that was my point though, that class was rated 14th by SuperPrep. Point is that at the time TO's classes weren't in the Top 3 or near there more often than not. It goes to show a bit of the uncertainty in the process, part of why I take the ratings with a grain of salt, and also goes to show you what Coaching can do including scheme. We have some pretty good players on D, but per your previous comment the talent on the Blackshirts wasn't near the talent brought in by Florida, Texas, OU, Alabama at the same time per the recruiting services, well 2005 was rated pretty high. The 2009 Blackshirts were #1 in Scoring Defense without as good a talent level as the other big dogs per the rankings given to the players by Rivals and Scout. Coaching at NU made the 2009 unit the best in the nation.Andy Staples disagrees with your recruiting rankings from the 90's. And of course this is in retrospect - at the time of signing this 92' class was not viewed as "one of the best all time" Maybe Bo can add one of these 20th ranked classes to the best all time. If he does, the list of notables will be all defensive guys
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/andy_staples/01/29/best-classes/2.html
EDIT: Didn't notice someone had already posted this link in another forum and you already commented on it caveman. To quick for me.
EZ-E
All-American
--Every Iowa and Missouri fan I have ever talked to.
:sarcasm :sarcasm :sarcasm :sarcasm
carlfense
Heisman Trophy Winner
MrBumstead
Three-Star Recruit
kchusker_chris
All-American
saw that earlier. They calculate the average stars off the entire class, not just the top 20. That affects my calculations some because those 2*s don't drop off completely.
Yep, did the math, not taking Marsh, Cotton and Evans would bump us 22 points right now and actually jump South Carolina.
If Simek commits we will jump to 1445, one lousy point behind MU. Also rumored that we might pick up another 2* greyshirt Griffin.
RedDenver
Heisman Trophy Winner
That might be the stupidest thing I've heard about recruiting rankings. So not having 3 guys on the roster is better than having them? Yeah, the class is obviously better if those guys don't have any chance to succeed than if they do. <sigh>
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