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MNJhawk
Prairie Warrior
Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: lawrence, ks Nebraska hype
#1658891 - Fri Feb 05 2010 05:37 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
another story on how nebraska will contend for a national championship next season..
http://collegefootball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1048047
it seems to me the national media has bought into the idea that nebraska is officially "back" and will be a favorite to win the big12 next year and possibly a national championship. I just do not understand where all of this is coming from. I think if it was any other big12 north team that had nebraska's season last year and returned what they return, they would be considered a borderline top 25 team, certainly not not 5.
Nebraska had the 11th best offense and 3rd best defense in the big 12 last year, certainly nothing too great.
-They lose their heisman candidate and probable #1 pick in the draft in Suh. He was the complete anchor of that defense and therefor their team. He could become one of the best D-tackles ever. That is an ENORMOUS loss, yet the media thinks it wont hurt that defense??
-they lose MLB, Phillip Dillard (2nd on team in tackles with 83)
-they lose both safeties Asante and O'hanlon who combined for 148 tackles and 8 ints
-and they lose their other starting defensive tackle Barry Turner, who had 51 tackles and 5.5 sacks.
Their offense was terrible, and they have a decent QB, but not a national champion caliber QB, however the O should improve a little with many returning starters. however they do lose their center (who was a 3 year starter).
In order to make it to the national championship they cannot have more than 1 loss, and no more than 2 losses for a BCS bowl (without winning B12 title). They have games @washington, @KSU (on a thursday night on ESPN), Texas, @OSU, @A&M (who should be improved), against the other 4 north teams, and if they get there, the big12 title against against another south power.
I think there is no way they come out of there with 0 or 1 losses. and there is a very small chance at 2. I think the media and husker fans are setting themselves up for a huge disappointment, as i see this team as a much more likely 3-5 loss team. certainly not a title contender
Edited by MNJhawk (Fri Feb 05 2010 05:43 PM)
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shades
Max Falkenstien
Reged: Fri
Posts: 14265
Loc: South of Paris Re: Nebraska hype [Re: MNJhawk]
#1658905 - Fri Feb 05 2010 05:54 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Huskers attracted a lot of attention at the end of the season with an impressive performance in the Big 12 title game, and they looked like an elite team (evoking memories of the glory years) in their 33-0 bowl win over Arizona.
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"Short days, short days."~K. (Franz Kafka)
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Ryan2845
Max Falkenstien
Reged: Mon
Posts: 7610
Re: Nebraska hype [Re: shades]
#1658924 - Fri Feb 05 2010 06:30 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Their fans are definitely buying into the hype, my husker friend guaranteed me this week that they would win 5 north titles and at least 2 BCS bowls in the next 5 years, at a minimum...
Although he's also been saying they would "restore the order next year" for at least 6 years now
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max4
spacey
Reged: Thu
Posts: 1457
Loc: North Mexico Re: Nebraska hype [Re: Ryan2845]
#1659057 - Fri Feb 05 2010 10:56 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
You can't contend for anything without a QB and they absolutely don't have one.
Plus they lost the only strength they had Suh and Turner.
They will not be even a top 20 team with that horrible offense they have
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hasbeen=neverwas
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t_jayhawk
Pure Jayhawk
Reged: Sat
Posts: 4238
Loc: evansville, indiana Re: Nebraska hype [Re: max4]
#1659064 - Fri Feb 05 2010 11:09 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
-my only real problem with what you said was that they had the 3rd best defense in the big 12. i know they had the #1 scoring d in the country and their defense dominated pretty much every game.
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colonel henchman
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MNJhawk
Prairie Warrior
Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: lawrence, ks Re: Nebraska hype [Re: t_jayhawk]
#1659068 - Fri Feb 05 2010 11:17 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Quote:
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-my only real problem with what you said was that they had the 3rd best defense in the big 12. i know they had the #1 scoring d in the country and their defense dominated pretty much every game.
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yea best scoring defense but most experts would tell you yards per game is more important, because it does a better job of excluding things like bad/good special teams, turnover prone offense, and just luck. It is usually the stat that decides who is has a better O/D.
yards per game, they were 3rd in the big12
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used_cars
Pure Jayhawk
Reged: Thu
Posts: 2973
Loc: Auburn, CA. Re: Nebraska hype [Re: shades]
#1659073 - Fri Feb 05 2010 11:20 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Quote:
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Huskers attracted a lot of attention at the end of the season with an impressive performance in the Big 12 title game, and they looked like an elite team (evoking memories of the glory years) in their 33-0 bowl win over Arizona.
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I agree with everything you wrote. I know hating NU is in vogue but if you ask me they really made the division proud. I was really tired of seeing the north champ get knocked around by the south and then eek out a win over Northwestern. I loved watching that Holiday bowl. It was the most fun I had the whole bowl season.
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If at first you succeed try something harder.
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DCHawk1
Max Falkenstien
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Loc: District of Columbia Re: Nebraska hype [Re: MNJhawk]
#1659083 - Fri Feb 05 2010 11:48 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
yea best scoring defense but most experts would tell you yards per game is more important
Huh.
And here I thought that the idea of defense was to hold the other team to as few points as possible.
My mistake.
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t_jayhawk
Pure Jayhawk
Reged: Sat
Posts: 4238
Loc: evansville, indiana Re: Nebraska hype [Re: DCHawk1]
#1659093 - Sat Feb 06 2010 12:46 AM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
yards per game is not a great indicator either. if your offense sucks (and theirs did), the d is on the field a lot more than a good offensive team.
the games that i saw, they had a lot of 3 and outs.
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colonel henchman
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MNJhawk
Prairie Warrior
Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: lawrence, ks Re: Nebraska hype [Re: DCHawk1]
#1659108 - Sat Feb 06 2010 02:24 AM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Quote:
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yea best scoring defense but most experts would tell you yards per game is more important
Huh.
And here I thought that the idea of defense was to hold the other team to as few points as possible.
My mistake.
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haha oy.. thank you for making this as difficult as possible. im not retarded- yes scoring defense is more important for winning a game. what im saying is that as far as telling who has a better offense or defense- total offense, and total defense in terms of yards per game is almost always used.
and yes.. neither one is perfect, but i didnt come up with the system.
but ok just to clarify, they had the 11th ranked offense in total offense (ypg), and 3rd ranked defense in total defense (ypg) in the big 12.
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brophog
Baby Jay
Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Re: Nebraska hype [Re: MNJhawk]
#1659136 - Sat Feb 06 2010 07:53 AM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
I wanted to clarify a few things here:
RE: Stats
It is true that yards is generally considered the more useful metric, and not points. It is a better indicator of how a team consistently moves the ball (or has the ball moved on them) and does benefit from not being directly influenced by the other side of the ball.
I.E. Points against counts any score, not just the ones with the defense on the field.
Of course, no metric is so good that no others should be considered. Football is not the best statistical sport, in large part because so much of the effort on the field isn't directly tracked. However, like with other sports, the smaller the unit, the more accurate it becomes.
In the case of basketball, points per possession is a better indicator than points per game.
Football is the same. Yards per play is a more useful metric than yards per game, although it still suffers from the same overall issue that yards per game does (any mean will suffer there).
It does however tend to sort out issues when the offense (or defense) tends to possess the ball an inordinate amount of time.
For Nebraska 2009, we all know the offense stunk most of the year. The defense had to be on the field for 955 plays (for reference, that's 111 plays more than Alabama, or nearly 2 full games more). Despite that, Nebraska posted a ypp figure of 3.99, good for 3rd in the nation.
On top of that, they posted figures of 1st in the nation in scoring defense, 1st in the nation in pass efficiency defense, tied for 2nd in sacks, 9th in rush yards allowed, and 7th in total yards allowed. Only one team scored over 20 points, and that team was Texas Tech. They were helped (once again) by Nebraska's offensive mistakes. They were held, however, to their lowest yardage output since 2006, iirc.
To put it bluntly, this was one of the top defenses in the nation.
Just how good is debatable, but it is certain that this defense was far, far better than the original poster seems to give them credit for.
((As an aside, the disparity between total defense and ypp allowed was also highly prevalent for Nebraska in 2008, but in reverse. Total Defense, at least for the first 3/4 of the season, made Nebraska's defense look a lot better than it really was. At one point in the conference schedule, Nebraska was ranked 1st in Total Defense for the conference that year.......and in that same week they were ranked 12th in ypp allowed for the conference.))
Enough of that. This past year is not the question, next year is. There are several big reasons that the media likes Nebraska:
1) Favorable schedule. Washington may continue to surprise people, but they still finished 5-7 last year, even with the win against USC. They'll likely be better this year, but on paper (which is the media's playground) Washington looks a lot more favorable than the likes of VT and USC in the past few years.
Texas, Kansas, and Missouri are all at home. Nebraska has the Saturday off before KSU and Texas.
2) Nebraska lost 3 of their 4 games by a combined 4 points. That tends to favor heavy in the media, and they are often correct here. Teams that narrowly lose games one year tend to win more games the following year.
3) Nebraska finished about as strong as they hoped for, at least in the media's eyes. They were supposed to be blasted by Texas, and while I wholeheartedly disagree, some feel they actually "won" that game. That's neither here nor there, but they convinced enough people they could at least find a way to compete with OU and Texas last year for folks to begin to buy in. Arizona was just about the perfect bowl opponent: respectable, but highly beatable. Nebraska couldn't have asked for a better transition from one year to the next in that regard.
4) Pelini's steady improvement. Defensively, you have to tip your cap to him. His defenses are rock solid. He has taken Nebraska from 5-7 to 10-4 in two years. The momentum is there, and the media really plays up on momentum.
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Code_2008
US Marshal, Kansas Territory
Reged: Tue
Posts: 1319
Loc: Lawrence, Kansas Re: Nebraska hype [Re: brophog]
#1659138 - Sat Feb 06 2010 08:00 AM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
I hope KSU, KU, Colorado, and Iowa State beat them next year... that'll shut them up real quick...
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Kansas - the only state in America where one can experience all four seasons in one day.
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jamboslice
Big Dipper
Reged: Sun
Posts: 488
Loc: Overland Park, KS Re: Nebraska hype [Re: Code_2008]
#1659165 - Sat Feb 06 2010 10:27 AM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
I watched many Nebraska games last year and I have to say the obvious thing, Suh was dominate. His pressure alone almost won that game against Texas.
That being said, Bo and his brother know how to build a defense, and they'll know how to fill the void left in the D line. Suh wasn't the only good player on that D. Crick is very good and the secondary is solid. Looking at the schedule, they'll roll @ K-State, beat a Texas team that isn't that experienced on O at home, beat an Okie State team on the road that also loses alot of it's O experience, squeak out a win at home against what will probably be a decent Misery team, throttle Iowa State because there is no way they'll lose to that team again, beat us at home because we won't be that good, have a very tough time with Texas A@M and probably lose that game, and finish the season crushing Colorado. I could definitely see a 1 loss Nebraska team here, so obviously that will win them the North.
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max4
spacey
Reged: Thu
Posts: 1457
Loc: North Mexico Re: Nebraska hype [Re: jamboslice]
#1659280 - Sat Feb 06 2010 12:30 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
They have no QB, case closed
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hasbeen=neverwas
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MNJhawk
Prairie Warrior
Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: lawrence, ks Re: Nebraska hype [Re: jamboslice]
#1659289 - Sat Feb 06 2010 12:36 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Brophog- nice 1st post and i appreciate the statistical analysis. you make a compelling argument.
as far as the small margin in 3 of their 4 losses i completely agree with you. that always does seem to even out next season. but you also have to take into account the close games that they won. they won 2 one possession games, and they won 2 more in which they were losing in the 4th quarter.
also, you're right i probably wasn't giving their defense enough credit just going off ypg. and thank you for the ypp stat, that's interesting.
but 1 more thing on the double standard between NU's defense and UT's offense. if you say losing 4 of their top 5 leading tacklers, over 50% of their sacks, leader in interceptions, and by far the best defensive player in the country wont hurt too much because bo pelini fields great defenses, then why would texas' offense be any different under mac brown next year?
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t_jayhawk
Pure Jayhawk
Reged: Sat
Posts: 4238
Loc: evansville, indiana Re: Nebraska hype [Re: max4]
#1659304 - Sat Feb 06 2010 12:45 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Quote:
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They have no QB, case closed
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....and we do?
there is no way their d will be just as good (but it will be good)and the offense will surely improve.
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colonel henchman
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rolo2383
Lawrence Legend
Reged: Tue
Posts: 1693
Loc: Lawrence, KS Re: Nebraska hype [Re: t_jayhawk]
#1659308 - Sat Feb 06 2010 12:46 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
NU seems to think they will have a better D next year than they had this past year.
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t_jayhawk
Pure Jayhawk
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Posts: 4238
Loc: evansville, indiana Re: Nebraska hype [Re: rolo2383]
#1659315 - Sat Feb 06 2010 12:49 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
that's what pelini keeps saying. doesn't mean it's true. but their secondary COULD be one of the best in the country next year even though they lost 2 stud safeties.
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colonel henchman
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brophog
Baby Jay
Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Re: Nebraska hype [Re: MNJhawk]
#1659372 - Sat Feb 06 2010 01:37 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Quote:
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if you say losing 4 of their top 5 leading tacklers, over 50% of their sacks, leader in interceptions, and by far the best defensive player in the country wont hurt too much because bo pelini fields great defenses, then why would texas' offense be any different under mac brown next year?
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I don't know that Texas, as a team, will drop off a ton. Texas is still a favorite in the South in some people's minds. Their offense will need to jump out of the gate prepared, though, because they don't have much of an early season cushion. They open at Rice, get Wyoming at home and then kick off the heart of the schedule at TT, UCLA, OU, and at NU. But, their defense is pretty darn good in its own right. Nobody should overlook Texas, despite some of their losses to graduation/NFL. They'll reload.
As to Nebraska, depth helps there, greatly. It is quite telling when folks bring up O'Hanlon as a key loss. This is a kid that worked very hard, but wasn't good enough out of high school to draw any attention.......he didn't even walk on to Nebraska out of high school. He answered a strength coach's call to tryout, and in large part because of the lack of depth on the defensive side of the ball following Callahan's firing he got a shot as a starter.
Asking how to replace Matt O'Hanlon is kinda like asking how KU could replace Christian Moody.
Nebraska will have more depth than they have had in Pelini's first two seasons, and overall that depth will be more talented, but Pelini's defense isn't simple to learn. There are a lot of reads to be made, and coverages often change right up to the snap. It presents itself for the statistics to come if played right (O'Hanlon is a good example, as are the INT numbers of J. Bullocks in Pelini's 2003 season as DC), but will those players emerge, early enough? Pelini has done a good job identifying his teams problems and finishing strong, but that often means a rocky middle of the season. If Nebraska is to live up to some of these expectations, they'll have to transition early success against mostly lightweights into early conference success.
The big difference is in how teams are looked at from year to year, particularly through the media's eyes. Texas, despite playing in the title game, does not appear to have momentum. Nebraska does. If you're a person that really values that concept from season to season, then you'd likely be a person that was a little bearish on Texas and bullish on Nebraska. The overall low perception of the Big 12 north probably plays a big part, at least nationally, as well. Teams with new head coaches don't tend to be looked at favorably in the preseason, so nobody will expect a lot from KU next year. Missouri can't shed the overrated label, and the loss to Navy did nothing to help national (or even local) perception there. Below that? I guess it depends on how much one thinks Snyder can do. ISU is improving, but not enough to come into a season causing people alarm, and Colorado is nothing short of a debacle.
Nebraska's schedule is right, wrong, or otherwise seen as a one team schedule: beat Texas, and the evidence for that outcome to happen is still relatively fresh in the minds of many.
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shades
Max Falkenstien
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Loc: South of Paris Re: Nebraska hype [Re: brophog]
#1659403 - Sat Feb 06 2010 02:08 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Quote:
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. . . Nebraska's schedule is right, wrong, or otherwise seen as a one team schedule: beat Texas, and the evidence for that outcome to happen is still relatively fresh in the minds of many.
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The biggest unknown about Texas is having to break in a new quarterback. It may not be known until mid-season, or later, if Gilbert is going to be able to cut it at the major college level.
The Huskers will have an excellent chance of being undefeated going into the showdown home game with UT, and should be brimming with confidence for the chance to reclaim their status as one of the nation's elite teams.
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"Short days, short days."~K. (Franz Kafka)
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KUHawkhead
Max Falkenstien
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Posts: 15635
Loc: The Periphery Re: Nebraska hype [Re: shades]
#1659433 - Sat Feb 06 2010 02:46 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
NU may be the best team in the north next year. However, like the last two years, the best in the north is the 4th (at best) best team in the Big XII.
It's just how it is.
RCJHKU!
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Democracy means simply the bludgeoning of the people by the people for the people.-Oscar Wilde
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unlPhDJayhawk
Crimson & Blue Blood
Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
Loc: Lincoln, NE (thankfully no lon... Re: Nebraska hype [Re: KUHawkhead]
#1661187 - Sun Feb 07 2010 07:33 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
It's hard to know just how good Nebraska will be next year. They should be favored to win the north division, but that doesn't necessarily mean a whole lot.
I'm not particularly interested in Nebraska football, even though I go to school at UNL. But I know enough about the team to understand why they're getting some of the hype.
Nebraska does have a QB, although it still remains to be seen just how good he is. It's probably too soon to assume Zac Lee can't be effective in the Big 12. He played much of the season with a torn tendon in the elbow of his throwing arm and is undergoing surgery for it in the offseason. I'm not sure if he's had the surgery yet.
While Holt won't be back next year, they will return much of the rest of their offense including Burkhead and Helu. Both were banged up during the past season and probably would have been more effective if they were healthy.
Other than losing Suh, which is a huge loss, their biggest losses will be at the safety position. However, they still return plenty of good players including Crick.
Nebraska also has the luxury of having a kicker, Henery, who is almost automatic on field goals within 50 yards. However, Nebraska must improve their offense to the point where they don't rely on Henery for all their scoring in some of their games.
There's still plenty of questions to answer about Nebraska. Can their defensive line generate pressure without Suh? How will Lee recover from his surgery? Can Lee be an effective QB in the Big 12? Will Nebraska's secondary be effective with their losses at safety? But there's also reasons to be optimistic about next season, as I described.
I'm not convinced that Nebraska will be a national championship contender. But I can see why there's some excitement about their team next year. They should be favored to win the north division. It's probably too soon to make any projections about Nebraska beyond that.
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brophog
Baby Jay
Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Re: Nebraska hype [Re: unlPhDJayhawk]
#1661255 - Sun Feb 07 2010 09:31 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Quote:
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But I know enough about the team to understand why they're getting some of the hype.
I'm not convinced that Nebraska will be a national championship contender. But I can see why there's some excitement about their team next year. They should be favored to win the north division. It's probably too soon to make any projections about Nebraska beyond that.
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There isn't enough data at this point for anyone to make accurate predictions. At this point in time, though, the pundits, bloggers, and mainstream media outlets aren't about making accurate predictions........
........they are about making predictions that stand out.
A few teams represent good opportunities for someone to throw a team that is slightly off the radar out there as a title contender, even though there isn't sufficient information to come to that conclusion. By and large, I think they all know that.
A team like Nebraska doesn't represent someone who, at this point in time, is good enough for the honor of being picked a 2010 BCS title participant: they represent someone at this point in time that seems plausible enough to put that idea to paper.
Nebraska's schedule and the historical strength of the Big 12 in terms of getting invites into the BCS title game makes Nebraska an attractive option. They don't necessarily have to be one of the top teams in the nation, or even the Big 12.......they just need to get to the Big 12 title game with a reasonable enough record, relative to other national teams. At that point, it's a one game scenario for a lot of big marbles. That's the advantage of a system like the Big 12.
There are other teams that fit this kind of scenario. For instance, another team that is being thrown around in these extremely early guesstimates is Ohio St. Their conference schedule is favorable, having both Penn St and Michigan at home. Their non-con is favorable, with the only real interesting game being Miami. Miami is certainly improving, but isn't likely to start the season as the kind of squad that would be favored heading into Columbus. It is a game much like Arizona was for Nebraska this year: a good respect/risk ratio. It wouldn't take much for Ohio St to work its way into the title picture. Saying that in January and February isn't the same as saying one thinks they are one of the top 2 or 3 teams next year......they just represent a scenario that is plausible at this point in time.
At this point in time, these people are playing the odds. Teams like Nebraska represent favorable odds for them to come back this time next year and boldly state how correct they were with their early pick. If they are wrong, it is enough of a long shot that they get credit for rolling the dice.
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namohcan_99
Pure Jayhawk
Reged: Sun
Posts: 3781
Loc: Wichita, Kansas Re: Nebraska hype [Re: brophog]
#1661268 - Sun Feb 07 2010 09:44 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Other than Nebraska fans, I don't think anybody else is really buying the hype. Yes, Nebraska should be favored to win the North, but I don't think anybody expects them to taking down teams like Texas and Oklahoma. The Big XII South is still above the North. Sorry.
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BigDipper05
Phog Fanatic
Reged: Sun
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Loc: Lawrence, KS Re: Nebraska hype [Re: namohcan_99]
#1664636 - Tue Feb 09 2010 04:48 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
I think that as long as Pelini is at Nebraska, they will have one of the country's best defenses. If they can establish a decent offense they will be contenders for years to come.
I think they might turn into a Ohio State type of program going forward. Beat up on teams throughout the regular season, then get exposed by the SEC teams in bowl games. Hopefully I'm wrong, but KU blew their best window in years to capture the north.
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MNJhawk
Prairie Warrior
Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: lawrence, ks Nebraska hype
#1658891 - Fri Feb 05 2010 05:37 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
another story on how nebraska will contend for a national championship next season..
http://collegefootball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1048047
it seems to me the national media has bought into the idea that nebraska is officially "back" and will be a favorite to win the big12 next year and possibly a national championship. I just do not understand where all of this is coming from. I think if it was any other big12 north team that had nebraska's season last year and returned what they return, they would be considered a borderline top 25 team, certainly not not 5.
Nebraska had the 11th best offense and 3rd best defense in the big 12 last year, certainly nothing too great.
-They lose their heisman candidate and probable #1 pick in the draft in Suh. He was the complete anchor of that defense and therefor their team. He could become one of the best D-tackles ever. That is an ENORMOUS loss, yet the media thinks it wont hurt that defense??
-they lose MLB, Phillip Dillard (2nd on team in tackles with 83)
-they lose both safeties Asante and O'hanlon who combined for 148 tackles and 8 ints
-and they lose their other starting defensive tackle Barry Turner, who had 51 tackles and 5.5 sacks.
Their offense was terrible, and they have a decent QB, but not a national champion caliber QB, however the O should improve a little with many returning starters. however they do lose their center (who was a 3 year starter).
In order to make it to the national championship they cannot have more than 1 loss, and no more than 2 losses for a BCS bowl (without winning B12 title). They have games @washington, @KSU (on a thursday night on ESPN), Texas, @OSU, @A&M (who should be improved), against the other 4 north teams, and if they get there, the big12 title against against another south power.
I think there is no way they come out of there with 0 or 1 losses. and there is a very small chance at 2. I think the media and husker fans are setting themselves up for a huge disappointment, as i see this team as a much more likely 3-5 loss team. certainly not a title contender
Edited by MNJhawk (Fri Feb 05 2010 05:43 PM)
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shades
Max Falkenstien
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Loc: South of Paris Re: Nebraska hype [Re: MNJhawk]
#1658905 - Fri Feb 05 2010 05:54 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Huskers attracted a lot of attention at the end of the season with an impressive performance in the Big 12 title game, and they looked like an elite team (evoking memories of the glory years) in their 33-0 bowl win over Arizona.
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"Short days, short days."~K. (Franz Kafka)
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Ryan2845
Max Falkenstien
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Re: Nebraska hype [Re: shades]
#1658924 - Fri Feb 05 2010 06:30 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Their fans are definitely buying into the hype, my husker friend guaranteed me this week that they would win 5 north titles and at least 2 BCS bowls in the next 5 years, at a minimum...
Although he's also been saying they would "restore the order next year" for at least 6 years now
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max4
spacey
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Loc: North Mexico Re: Nebraska hype [Re: Ryan2845]
#1659057 - Fri Feb 05 2010 10:56 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
You can't contend for anything without a QB and they absolutely don't have one.
Plus they lost the only strength they had Suh and Turner.
They will not be even a top 20 team with that horrible offense they have
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t_jayhawk
Pure Jayhawk
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Loc: evansville, indiana Re: Nebraska hype [Re: max4]
#1659064 - Fri Feb 05 2010 11:09 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
-my only real problem with what you said was that they had the 3rd best defense in the big 12. i know they had the #1 scoring d in the country and their defense dominated pretty much every game.
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MNJhawk
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Loc: lawrence, ks Re: Nebraska hype [Re: t_jayhawk]
#1659068 - Fri Feb 05 2010 11:17 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
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-my only real problem with what you said was that they had the 3rd best defense in the big 12. i know they had the #1 scoring d in the country and their defense dominated pretty much every game.
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yea best scoring defense but most experts would tell you yards per game is more important, because it does a better job of excluding things like bad/good special teams, turnover prone offense, and just luck. It is usually the stat that decides who is has a better O/D.
yards per game, they were 3rd in the big12
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used_cars
Pure Jayhawk
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Loc: Auburn, CA. Re: Nebraska hype [Re: shades]
#1659073 - Fri Feb 05 2010 11:20 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
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Huskers attracted a lot of attention at the end of the season with an impressive performance in the Big 12 title game, and they looked like an elite team (evoking memories of the glory years) in their 33-0 bowl win over Arizona.
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I agree with everything you wrote. I know hating NU is in vogue but if you ask me they really made the division proud. I was really tired of seeing the north champ get knocked around by the south and then eek out a win over Northwestern. I loved watching that Holiday bowl. It was the most fun I had the whole bowl season.
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DCHawk1
Max Falkenstien
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Loc: District of Columbia Re: Nebraska hype [Re: MNJhawk]
#1659083 - Fri Feb 05 2010 11:48 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
yea best scoring defense but most experts would tell you yards per game is more important
Huh.
And here I thought that the idea of defense was to hold the other team to as few points as possible.
My mistake.
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t_jayhawk
Pure Jayhawk
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Loc: evansville, indiana Re: Nebraska hype [Re: DCHawk1]
#1659093 - Sat Feb 06 2010 12:46 AM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
yards per game is not a great indicator either. if your offense sucks (and theirs did), the d is on the field a lot more than a good offensive team.
the games that i saw, they had a lot of 3 and outs.
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MNJhawk
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Loc: lawrence, ks Re: Nebraska hype [Re: DCHawk1]
#1659108 - Sat Feb 06 2010 02:24 AM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Quote:
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yea best scoring defense but most experts would tell you yards per game is more important
Huh.
And here I thought that the idea of defense was to hold the other team to as few points as possible.
My mistake.
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haha oy.. thank you for making this as difficult as possible. im not retarded- yes scoring defense is more important for winning a game. what im saying is that as far as telling who has a better offense or defense- total offense, and total defense in terms of yards per game is almost always used.
and yes.. neither one is perfect, but i didnt come up with the system.
but ok just to clarify, they had the 11th ranked offense in total offense (ypg), and 3rd ranked defense in total defense (ypg) in the big 12.
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brophog
Baby Jay
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Re: Nebraska hype [Re: MNJhawk]
#1659136 - Sat Feb 06 2010 07:53 AM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
I wanted to clarify a few things here:
RE: Stats
It is true that yards is generally considered the more useful metric, and not points. It is a better indicator of how a team consistently moves the ball (or has the ball moved on them) and does benefit from not being directly influenced by the other side of the ball.
I.E. Points against counts any score, not just the ones with the defense on the field.
Of course, no metric is so good that no others should be considered. Football is not the best statistical sport, in large part because so much of the effort on the field isn't directly tracked. However, like with other sports, the smaller the unit, the more accurate it becomes.
In the case of basketball, points per possession is a better indicator than points per game.
Football is the same. Yards per play is a more useful metric than yards per game, although it still suffers from the same overall issue that yards per game does (any mean will suffer there).
It does however tend to sort out issues when the offense (or defense) tends to possess the ball an inordinate amount of time.
For Nebraska 2009, we all know the offense stunk most of the year. The defense had to be on the field for 955 plays (for reference, that's 111 plays more than Alabama, or nearly 2 full games more). Despite that, Nebraska posted a ypp figure of 3.99, good for 3rd in the nation.
On top of that, they posted figures of 1st in the nation in scoring defense, 1st in the nation in pass efficiency defense, tied for 2nd in sacks, 9th in rush yards allowed, and 7th in total yards allowed. Only one team scored over 20 points, and that team was Texas Tech. They were helped (once again) by Nebraska's offensive mistakes. They were held, however, to their lowest yardage output since 2006, iirc.
To put it bluntly, this was one of the top defenses in the nation.
Just how good is debatable, but it is certain that this defense was far, far better than the original poster seems to give them credit for.
((As an aside, the disparity between total defense and ypp allowed was also highly prevalent for Nebraska in 2008, but in reverse. Total Defense, at least for the first 3/4 of the season, made Nebraska's defense look a lot better than it really was. At one point in the conference schedule, Nebraska was ranked 1st in Total Defense for the conference that year.......and in that same week they were ranked 12th in ypp allowed for the conference.))
Enough of that. This past year is not the question, next year is. There are several big reasons that the media likes Nebraska:
1) Favorable schedule. Washington may continue to surprise people, but they still finished 5-7 last year, even with the win against USC. They'll likely be better this year, but on paper (which is the media's playground) Washington looks a lot more favorable than the likes of VT and USC in the past few years.
Texas, Kansas, and Missouri are all at home. Nebraska has the Saturday off before KSU and Texas.
2) Nebraska lost 3 of their 4 games by a combined 4 points. That tends to favor heavy in the media, and they are often correct here. Teams that narrowly lose games one year tend to win more games the following year.
3) Nebraska finished about as strong as they hoped for, at least in the media's eyes. They were supposed to be blasted by Texas, and while I wholeheartedly disagree, some feel they actually "won" that game. That's neither here nor there, but they convinced enough people they could at least find a way to compete with OU and Texas last year for folks to begin to buy in. Arizona was just about the perfect bowl opponent: respectable, but highly beatable. Nebraska couldn't have asked for a better transition from one year to the next in that regard.
4) Pelini's steady improvement. Defensively, you have to tip your cap to him. His defenses are rock solid. He has taken Nebraska from 5-7 to 10-4 in two years. The momentum is there, and the media really plays up on momentum.
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Code_2008
US Marshal, Kansas Territory
Reged: Tue
Posts: 1319
Loc: Lawrence, Kansas Re: Nebraska hype [Re: brophog]
#1659138 - Sat Feb 06 2010 08:00 AM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
I hope KSU, KU, Colorado, and Iowa State beat them next year... that'll shut them up real quick...
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jamboslice
Big Dipper
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Loc: Overland Park, KS Re: Nebraska hype [Re: Code_2008]
#1659165 - Sat Feb 06 2010 10:27 AM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
I watched many Nebraska games last year and I have to say the obvious thing, Suh was dominate. His pressure alone almost won that game against Texas.
That being said, Bo and his brother know how to build a defense, and they'll know how to fill the void left in the D line. Suh wasn't the only good player on that D. Crick is very good and the secondary is solid. Looking at the schedule, they'll roll @ K-State, beat a Texas team that isn't that experienced on O at home, beat an Okie State team on the road that also loses alot of it's O experience, squeak out a win at home against what will probably be a decent Misery team, throttle Iowa State because there is no way they'll lose to that team again, beat us at home because we won't be that good, have a very tough time with Texas A@M and probably lose that game, and finish the season crushing Colorado. I could definitely see a 1 loss Nebraska team here, so obviously that will win them the North.
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max4
spacey
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Loc: North Mexico Re: Nebraska hype [Re: jamboslice]
#1659280 - Sat Feb 06 2010 12:30 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
They have no QB, case closed
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MNJhawk
Prairie Warrior
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Loc: lawrence, ks Re: Nebraska hype [Re: jamboslice]
#1659289 - Sat Feb 06 2010 12:36 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Brophog- nice 1st post and i appreciate the statistical analysis. you make a compelling argument.
as far as the small margin in 3 of their 4 losses i completely agree with you. that always does seem to even out next season. but you also have to take into account the close games that they won. they won 2 one possession games, and they won 2 more in which they were losing in the 4th quarter.
also, you're right i probably wasn't giving their defense enough credit just going off ypg. and thank you for the ypp stat, that's interesting.
but 1 more thing on the double standard between NU's defense and UT's offense. if you say losing 4 of their top 5 leading tacklers, over 50% of their sacks, leader in interceptions, and by far the best defensive player in the country wont hurt too much because bo pelini fields great defenses, then why would texas' offense be any different under mac brown next year?
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t_jayhawk
Pure Jayhawk
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Loc: evansville, indiana Re: Nebraska hype [Re: max4]
#1659304 - Sat Feb 06 2010 12:45 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Quote:
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They have no QB, case closed
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....and we do?
there is no way their d will be just as good (but it will be good)and the offense will surely improve.
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colonel henchman
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rolo2383
Lawrence Legend
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Loc: Lawrence, KS Re: Nebraska hype [Re: t_jayhawk]
#1659308 - Sat Feb 06 2010 12:46 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
NU seems to think they will have a better D next year than they had this past year.
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t_jayhawk
Pure Jayhawk
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Loc: evansville, indiana Re: Nebraska hype [Re: rolo2383]
#1659315 - Sat Feb 06 2010 12:49 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
that's what pelini keeps saying. doesn't mean it's true. but their secondary COULD be one of the best in the country next year even though they lost 2 stud safeties.
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colonel henchman
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brophog
Baby Jay
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Re: Nebraska hype [Re: MNJhawk]
#1659372 - Sat Feb 06 2010 01:37 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Quote:
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if you say losing 4 of their top 5 leading tacklers, over 50% of their sacks, leader in interceptions, and by far the best defensive player in the country wont hurt too much because bo pelini fields great defenses, then why would texas' offense be any different under mac brown next year?
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I don't know that Texas, as a team, will drop off a ton. Texas is still a favorite in the South in some people's minds. Their offense will need to jump out of the gate prepared, though, because they don't have much of an early season cushion. They open at Rice, get Wyoming at home and then kick off the heart of the schedule at TT, UCLA, OU, and at NU. But, their defense is pretty darn good in its own right. Nobody should overlook Texas, despite some of their losses to graduation/NFL. They'll reload.
As to Nebraska, depth helps there, greatly. It is quite telling when folks bring up O'Hanlon as a key loss. This is a kid that worked very hard, but wasn't good enough out of high school to draw any attention.......he didn't even walk on to Nebraska out of high school. He answered a strength coach's call to tryout, and in large part because of the lack of depth on the defensive side of the ball following Callahan's firing he got a shot as a starter.
Asking how to replace Matt O'Hanlon is kinda like asking how KU could replace Christian Moody.
Nebraska will have more depth than they have had in Pelini's first two seasons, and overall that depth will be more talented, but Pelini's defense isn't simple to learn. There are a lot of reads to be made, and coverages often change right up to the snap. It presents itself for the statistics to come if played right (O'Hanlon is a good example, as are the INT numbers of J. Bullocks in Pelini's 2003 season as DC), but will those players emerge, early enough? Pelini has done a good job identifying his teams problems and finishing strong, but that often means a rocky middle of the season. If Nebraska is to live up to some of these expectations, they'll have to transition early success against mostly lightweights into early conference success.
The big difference is in how teams are looked at from year to year, particularly through the media's eyes. Texas, despite playing in the title game, does not appear to have momentum. Nebraska does. If you're a person that really values that concept from season to season, then you'd likely be a person that was a little bearish on Texas and bullish on Nebraska. The overall low perception of the Big 12 north probably plays a big part, at least nationally, as well. Teams with new head coaches don't tend to be looked at favorably in the preseason, so nobody will expect a lot from KU next year. Missouri can't shed the overrated label, and the loss to Navy did nothing to help national (or even local) perception there. Below that? I guess it depends on how much one thinks Snyder can do. ISU is improving, but not enough to come into a season causing people alarm, and Colorado is nothing short of a debacle.
Nebraska's schedule is right, wrong, or otherwise seen as a one team schedule: beat Texas, and the evidence for that outcome to happen is still relatively fresh in the minds of many.
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shades
Max Falkenstien
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Loc: South of Paris Re: Nebraska hype [Re: brophog]
#1659403 - Sat Feb 06 2010 02:08 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Quote:
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. . . Nebraska's schedule is right, wrong, or otherwise seen as a one team schedule: beat Texas, and the evidence for that outcome to happen is still relatively fresh in the minds of many.
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The biggest unknown about Texas is having to break in a new quarterback. It may not be known until mid-season, or later, if Gilbert is going to be able to cut it at the major college level.
The Huskers will have an excellent chance of being undefeated going into the showdown home game with UT, and should be brimming with confidence for the chance to reclaim their status as one of the nation's elite teams.
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KUHawkhead
Max Falkenstien
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Loc: The Periphery Re: Nebraska hype [Re: shades]
#1659433 - Sat Feb 06 2010 02:46 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
NU may be the best team in the north next year. However, like the last two years, the best in the north is the 4th (at best) best team in the Big XII.
It's just how it is.
RCJHKU!
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unlPhDJayhawk
Crimson & Blue Blood
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Loc: Lincoln, NE (thankfully no lon... Re: Nebraska hype [Re: KUHawkhead]
#1661187 - Sun Feb 07 2010 07:33 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
It's hard to know just how good Nebraska will be next year. They should be favored to win the north division, but that doesn't necessarily mean a whole lot.
I'm not particularly interested in Nebraska football, even though I go to school at UNL. But I know enough about the team to understand why they're getting some of the hype.
Nebraska does have a QB, although it still remains to be seen just how good he is. It's probably too soon to assume Zac Lee can't be effective in the Big 12. He played much of the season with a torn tendon in the elbow of his throwing arm and is undergoing surgery for it in the offseason. I'm not sure if he's had the surgery yet.
While Holt won't be back next year, they will return much of the rest of their offense including Burkhead and Helu. Both were banged up during the past season and probably would have been more effective if they were healthy.
Other than losing Suh, which is a huge loss, their biggest losses will be at the safety position. However, they still return plenty of good players including Crick.
Nebraska also has the luxury of having a kicker, Henery, who is almost automatic on field goals within 50 yards. However, Nebraska must improve their offense to the point where they don't rely on Henery for all their scoring in some of their games.
There's still plenty of questions to answer about Nebraska. Can their defensive line generate pressure without Suh? How will Lee recover from his surgery? Can Lee be an effective QB in the Big 12? Will Nebraska's secondary be effective with their losses at safety? But there's also reasons to be optimistic about next season, as I described.
I'm not convinced that Nebraska will be a national championship contender. But I can see why there's some excitement about their team next year. They should be favored to win the north division. It's probably too soon to make any projections about Nebraska beyond that.
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brophog
Baby Jay
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Re: Nebraska hype [Re: unlPhDJayhawk]
#1661255 - Sun Feb 07 2010 09:31 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Quote:
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But I know enough about the team to understand why they're getting some of the hype.
I'm not convinced that Nebraska will be a national championship contender. But I can see why there's some excitement about their team next year. They should be favored to win the north division. It's probably too soon to make any projections about Nebraska beyond that.
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There isn't enough data at this point for anyone to make accurate predictions. At this point in time, though, the pundits, bloggers, and mainstream media outlets aren't about making accurate predictions........
........they are about making predictions that stand out.
A few teams represent good opportunities for someone to throw a team that is slightly off the radar out there as a title contender, even though there isn't sufficient information to come to that conclusion. By and large, I think they all know that.
A team like Nebraska doesn't represent someone who, at this point in time, is good enough for the honor of being picked a 2010 BCS title participant: they represent someone at this point in time that seems plausible enough to put that idea to paper.
Nebraska's schedule and the historical strength of the Big 12 in terms of getting invites into the BCS title game makes Nebraska an attractive option. They don't necessarily have to be one of the top teams in the nation, or even the Big 12.......they just need to get to the Big 12 title game with a reasonable enough record, relative to other national teams. At that point, it's a one game scenario for a lot of big marbles. That's the advantage of a system like the Big 12.
There are other teams that fit this kind of scenario. For instance, another team that is being thrown around in these extremely early guesstimates is Ohio St. Their conference schedule is favorable, having both Penn St and Michigan at home. Their non-con is favorable, with the only real interesting game being Miami. Miami is certainly improving, but isn't likely to start the season as the kind of squad that would be favored heading into Columbus. It is a game much like Arizona was for Nebraska this year: a good respect/risk ratio. It wouldn't take much for Ohio St to work its way into the title picture. Saying that in January and February isn't the same as saying one thinks they are one of the top 2 or 3 teams next year......they just represent a scenario that is plausible at this point in time.
At this point in time, these people are playing the odds. Teams like Nebraska represent favorable odds for them to come back this time next year and boldly state how correct they were with their early pick. If they are wrong, it is enough of a long shot that they get credit for rolling the dice.
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namohcan_99
Pure Jayhawk
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Loc: Wichita, Kansas Re: Nebraska hype [Re: brophog]
#1661268 - Sun Feb 07 2010 09:44 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Other than Nebraska fans, I don't think anybody else is really buying the hype. Yes, Nebraska should be favored to win the North, but I don't think anybody expects them to taking down teams like Texas and Oklahoma. The Big XII South is still above the North. Sorry.
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BigDipper05
Phog Fanatic
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Loc: Lawrence, KS Re: Nebraska hype [Re: namohcan_99]
#1664636 - Tue Feb 09 2010 04:48 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
I think that as long as Pelini is at Nebraska, they will have one of the country's best defenses. If they can establish a decent offense they will be contenders for years to come.
I think they might turn into a Ohio State type of program going forward. Beat up on teams throughout the regular season, then get exposed by the SEC teams in bowl games. Hopefully I'm wrong, but KU blew their best window in years to capture the north.
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