Disclaimer: This is strictly speculation on my part.
Jim Delany has hinted that he'll continue to look at expansion and that it could happen in phases over a period of time. So I went and looked at the current TV contracts and noticed that the Big Ten's ABC/ESPN contract is up in 2016, which means they'll start renegotiating in 2015. Currently their ABC/ESPN contract is 10 years/1 billion dollars.
Since Notre Dame is considered the crown jewel by the Big Ten, I looked up their current NBC contract and found that it expires in 2015. Some think that if ND continues to ride the wave of mediocrity or worse these next few years, then they might risk losing their NBC deal.
With that in mind, I predict that if ND continues where Weis left off, then they'll join the Big Ten no later than 2014, if not earlier?
In the meantime, Delany will try to scoop up Rutgers for the NY (#1) and Philadelphia (#4) markets, even though those markets are pre-dominantly pro sports towns, but it'll open up if/when ND joins the pack, which is the ultimate goal in all of this. Also, if Rutgers did accept a Big Ten invite, it puts pressure on ND's Big East affiliation in their other sports. If ND still isn't budging after Rutgers is added to the Big Ten, then the next scenario might play out. Maryland.
It's been rumored that Delany is interested in Maryland which sits in the 9th largest TV market. While Maryland is an ACC member, this move also makes sense if they're trying to force ND's hand. Assuming Maryland were to accept a Big Ten invite, that would probably force the ACC to dip into the Big East again for a replacement to stay at 12 teams. If ND still isn't on-board, then they'd have two choices at this point. Syracuse or Pittsburgh.
I could see Delany taking whichever school was available after the ACC picks their replacement from the Big East for Maryland. Between Syracuse and Pittsburgh, there really isn't a right or wrong choice. Neither of them adds any new TV sets, but they're both from the Big East. This move would definitely force ND's hand. The Big East couldn't survive having 3 members poached by 2 different conferences.
Also keep in mind that all of the above mentioned schools are AAU members which is vital for acceptance into the Big Ten. Notre Dame is the exception to this rule since they're not AAU members at the moment, but that could change in the future since AAU membership is also an invitation-only organization.
I think Delany will expand in phases to coincide with the year 2015 because by then he'll be preparing to renegotiate the ABC/ESPN TV contract. ND could possibly be in the Big Ten either because their NBC contract was at risk or because their hand was forced due to the raiding of the Big East.
If ND accepts a Big Ten invite after Rutgers, then I see the Big Ten stopping at 14. Otherwise it'll go up to 16 with Rutgers, Maryland and either Pitt or Syracuse as the final pieces to force ND's hand into the Big Ten.
Another possibility is that if ND did join as the 14th team after Rutgers, then Delany could still expand to 16 by grabbing Missouri and Maryland. In that scenario, he'd have the 1st, 4th, 9th and 21st TV markets locked up.
14 teams = Rutgers and ND
16 teams = Rutgers, Maryland, Pitt/Syracuse, ND
OR
16 teams = Rutgers, ND, Maryland, Missouri
The key to this expansion will play into the 2015-16 TV renegotiation.
Jim Delany has hinted that he'll continue to look at expansion and that it could happen in phases over a period of time. So I went and looked at the current TV contracts and noticed that the Big Ten's ABC/ESPN contract is up in 2016, which means they'll start renegotiating in 2015. Currently their ABC/ESPN contract is 10 years/1 billion dollars.
Since Notre Dame is considered the crown jewel by the Big Ten, I looked up their current NBC contract and found that it expires in 2015. Some think that if ND continues to ride the wave of mediocrity or worse these next few years, then they might risk losing their NBC deal.
With that in mind, I predict that if ND continues where Weis left off, then they'll join the Big Ten no later than 2014, if not earlier?
In the meantime, Delany will try to scoop up Rutgers for the NY (#1) and Philadelphia (#4) markets, even though those markets are pre-dominantly pro sports towns, but it'll open up if/when ND joins the pack, which is the ultimate goal in all of this. Also, if Rutgers did accept a Big Ten invite, it puts pressure on ND's Big East affiliation in their other sports. If ND still isn't budging after Rutgers is added to the Big Ten, then the next scenario might play out. Maryland.
It's been rumored that Delany is interested in Maryland which sits in the 9th largest TV market. While Maryland is an ACC member, this move also makes sense if they're trying to force ND's hand. Assuming Maryland were to accept a Big Ten invite, that would probably force the ACC to dip into the Big East again for a replacement to stay at 12 teams. If ND still isn't on-board, then they'd have two choices at this point. Syracuse or Pittsburgh.
I could see Delany taking whichever school was available after the ACC picks their replacement from the Big East for Maryland. Between Syracuse and Pittsburgh, there really isn't a right or wrong choice. Neither of them adds any new TV sets, but they're both from the Big East. This move would definitely force ND's hand. The Big East couldn't survive having 3 members poached by 2 different conferences.
Also keep in mind that all of the above mentioned schools are AAU members which is vital for acceptance into the Big Ten. Notre Dame is the exception to this rule since they're not AAU members at the moment, but that could change in the future since AAU membership is also an invitation-only organization.
I think Delany will expand in phases to coincide with the year 2015 because by then he'll be preparing to renegotiate the ABC/ESPN TV contract. ND could possibly be in the Big Ten either because their NBC contract was at risk or because their hand was forced due to the raiding of the Big East.
If ND accepts a Big Ten invite after Rutgers, then I see the Big Ten stopping at 14. Otherwise it'll go up to 16 with Rutgers, Maryland and either Pitt or Syracuse as the final pieces to force ND's hand into the Big Ten.
Another possibility is that if ND did join as the 14th team after Rutgers, then Delany could still expand to 16 by grabbing Missouri and Maryland. In that scenario, he'd have the 1st, 4th, 9th and 21st TV markets locked up.
14 teams = Rutgers and ND
16 teams = Rutgers, Maryland, Pitt/Syracuse, ND
OR
16 teams = Rutgers, ND, Maryland, Missouri
The key to this expansion will play into the 2015-16 TV renegotiation.
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