BCS possibility

T

tmfr15

Starter
Here's a what-if for the end of the season.

After the season is over, five teams are sporting unbeaten records. Oregon emerges from the Pac-10. Nebraska takes the Big-12. Shocker, Boise State takes the WAC. TCU emerges from the Mountain West. Alabama wins the SEC.

Ohio State falls in an upset to Michigan toward the end of the season.

BCS standings list Alabama and Boise State as No. 1 and No. 2.

Bowls breakdown like this....

The Rose Bowl takes unbeaten Oregon and once-beaten Ohio State. And those teams put on an absolute show. Oregon wins in overtime and the Rose Bowl is thought of as one of the best games in the bowl's illustrious history.

The Fiesta Bowl gets unbeaten Nebraska and unbeaten TCU. And Nebraska dominates in all three phases of a lopsided blow out.

The BCS features No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Boise State. The result.....another blow out. Alabama dominates en route to its second straight national championship.

So, in the final standings, we have No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Nebraska, and No. 3 Oregon, all of them unbeaten.

The BCS takes a beating as usual, but its worse this time because the BCS included two non-automatic schools and both were routed.

So....given all that, what happens next?

 
No. BSU won't be number 2 in that scenario.

The computers wouldn't place them there due to SOS.

If Oregon and us are undefeated along with Alabama, and Oregon is putting up the same style points they are right now.

The NC will be Oregon vs Alabama.

So.

MNC: Oregon vs Alabama

Rose: tOSU vs BSU (at large due to Oregon playing in the MNC)

Fiesta: Nebraska B12 vs TCU (at large)

Orange: Miami ACC vs W. Virgina Big-East

Sugar: Arkansas (SEC 2) vs Oklahoma (Big 12 runner up)

 
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I doubt the BCS bowls take 2 non-BCS teams with that many quality BCS teams available. Remember that the BCS rule is ONE non-BCS team ranked in the top 12 will be taken. If that many quality teams are remaining, then either TCU or BSU likely gets left out.

Additionally, if there are undefeated SEC, B12, or B10 teams remaining, then BSU and TCU will get jumped in the polls (probably even an undefeated P10 team would jump them). The reason is that the BCS teams will be playing and beating other good teams while BSU and TCU squash lesser teams.

 
You both make valid points. But, just for the sake of fun, imagine that the scenario goes just the way I put it. What would the fall out be.

 
The computers wouldn't place them there due to SOS.
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I can't back this up, but I remember the BSC scrapping SOS in their computer rankings because they felt human voters already took SOS into account when voting in the polls.

 
tmfr15 said:
You both make valid points. But, just for the sake of fun, imagine that the scenario goes just the way I put it. What would the fall out be.
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Sauron and the Stay-Puft marshmallow man would take on Santa Claus and the zombie of Elvis with the winner gaining sole possession of Never-Never Land.

typ3kal just explained how your scenario can't happen. Why persist?

 
RedDenver said:
I doubt the BCS bowls take 2 non-BCS teams with that many quality BCS teams available. Remember that the BCS rule is ONE non-BCS team ranked in the top 12 will be taken. If that many quality teams are remaining, then either TCU or BSU likely gets left out.

Additionally, if there are undefeated SEC, B12, or B10 teams remaining, then BSU and TCU will get jumped in the polls (probably even an undefeated P10 team would jump them). The reason is that the BCS teams will be playing and beating other good teams while BSU and TCU squash lesser teams.
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Both were selected last year, they were just forced to play each other. :facepalm:

We know either Boise or TCU will go, but both programs have traveled well to the bowl games. I see it likely that both will go if they remain in the top 5 all season long.

 
Matt634 said:
The computers wouldn't place them there due to SOS.
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I can't back this up, but I remember the BSC scrapping SOS in their computer rankings because they felt human voters already took SOS into account when voting in the polls.
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There's no longer an explicit SOS component in the BCS formula, but the computer rankings often use SOS as part of determining their rankings. Here's the older rules: link.

 
Matt634 said:
The computers wouldn't place them there due to SOS.
Click to expand...
I can't back this up, but I remember the BSC scrapping SOS in their computer rankings because they felt human voters already took SOS into account when voting in the polls.
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SOS as a specific component was scrapped, but it's still used by Sagarin and each of the other five "computer" polls.

 
typ3kal said:
RedDenver said:
I doubt the BCS bowls take 2 non-BCS teams with that many quality BCS teams available. Remember that the BCS rule is ONE non-BCS team ranked in the top 12 will be taken. If that many quality teams are remaining, then either TCU or BSU likely gets left out.

Additionally, if there are undefeated SEC, B12, or B10 teams remaining, then BSU and TCU will get jumped in the polls (probably even an undefeated P10 team would jump them). The reason is that the BCS teams will be playing and beating other good teams while BSU and TCU squash lesser teams.
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Both were selected last year, they were just forced to play each other. :facepalm:

We know either Boise or TCU will go, but both programs have traveled well to the bowl games. I see it likely that both will go if they remain in the top 5 all season long.
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Even if NU, Alabama, Oregon are undefeated and a 1-loss Ohio St. is out there? The real question is what other 1-loss teams are remaining. If UT or OU have 1 loss, they'll get in. Another SEC and/or Big Ten team will likely go based on previous BCS selections.

I doubt both TCU and BSU make it unscathed, but if they do, the end of the season will be exciting! Lots of controversy and speculation.

 
typ3kal said:
No. BSU won't be number 2 in that scenario.

The computers wouldn't place them there due to SOS.

If Oregon and us are undefeated along with Alabama, and Oregon is putting up the same style points they are right now.

The NC will be Oregon vs Alabama.

So.

MNC: Oregon vs Alabama

Rose: tOSU vs BSU (at large due to Oregon playing in the MNC)

Fiesta: Nebraska B12 vs TCU (at large)

Orange: Miami ACC vs W. Virgina Big-East

Sugar: Arkansas (SEC 2) vs Oklahoma (Big 12 runner up)
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Don't you think that an undefeated Big12 champ would get the MNC heads up over Oregon, who doesn't play in a CCG?

 
GMoose said:
Don't you think that an undefeated Big12 champ would get the MNC heads up over Oregon, who doesn't play in a CCG?
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Possibly. The determining factor could come down to something like how NU and Oregon looked against a common opponent in Washington. There's a lot of football left to be played, and how a team like Tennessee looks in the SEC makes a big difference (Oregon beat UT easily).

 
Oregon has put up a lot of points so far but two of those opponents have been New Mexico and Portland St. respectively. The Ducks lost to Stanford (and Boise St) last year and of course Ohio St. I see them falling to someone in the Pac 10 this year.

Anything's possible and anyone in the top 5 isn't 'so good' that it's clear cut that they'll run the table. I still like Alabama because of their offensive line, skill players to go with that offensive line and their defense. I like us because of our defense which I think will get better and an improved offense. At the same time Ohio St. could figuratively win out with their schedule also. I don't see them losing to Iowa or Wisconsin or Michigan.

TCU's schedule is loaded with Mountain West opponents so while they're ranked higher than us currently I don't see how they could possibly get chosen if they manage to somehow be undefeated at the end of the year.

 
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