I'm not sure what to take from this Texas-Texas Tech game. It was hard watching all those errors, but the D was spectacular, keeping Tech under 150 total yards. In the end, UT got the win, and knowing you can win when so many things go wrong is at least a small comfort. But should I be mortified by the utter lack of progress showed by the O so far, or have faith that this D will keep us in any game?-- Alex P., Austin, Texas
At this point, I think it's safe to say that much of the Texas coverage this offseason focused on the wrong side of the ball. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert was being mentioned as a dark-horse Heisman candidate based off of a two-touchdown, four-interception performance in the BCS championship game. Last Saturday in Lubbock, he threw ... two touchdowns and three interceptions. Mack Brown spoke confidently this summer about the Longhorns' transformation back into a power running team. Texas averaged 2.2 yards per carry against the Red Raiders.
But Texas' defense? It's so freaking good. Brown said before the season he thought this defense had a chance to be the best of his 13-year tenure, and he may be right. Texas receiver James Kirkendoll said this week, "I feel we have the best defense in the country," and he may be right, too. For me, it's a toss-up between the 'Horns and Ohio State.
Will Muschamp, Texas' great defensive coordinator, is working with a deep, experienced and very versatile unit. It starts with the secondary, where he has five well-tested veterans (cornerbacks Aaron Williams, Curtis Brown and Chykie Brown and safeties Blake Gideon and Christian Scott) who are so reliable, Texas can afford to take risks up front. But he really hasn't had to take risks yet, because the front four can rush so effectively. The emergence of true freshman end Jackson Jeffcoat allowed Muschamp to move Alex Okafor and, at times, star Sam Acho, inside. Emmanuel Acho and Keenan Robinson are both big-time linebackers.
But can Texas expect to beat Oklahoma on Oct. 2 and Nebraska on Oct. 16 (I'm not that worried about UCLA this week) solely with its defense? I doubt it, because those teams have pretty good defenses themselves. I do believe Gilbert will only get better as the season progresses, but I don't have much faith in that running game. The Longhorns' offensive line simply is not physical enough and none of the tailbacks are elite difference-makers. Gilbert will have to do a better job of avoiding mistakes, and the defense will have to be flat-out dominant, for Texas to make it through that stretch unscathed.
Heisman winner on a 7-5 team? If Denard Robinson continues to put up the numbers he has, he should be in the Heisman talk ... but will he? The Heisman has been only going to a BCS bowl-bound (usually championship game-bound) player. If Robinson puts up 400 yards per game all season, but the Wolverines' defense plays like it did against UMass and costs Michigan games, will Robinson have any chance to win the doorstop trophy?
-- DM, Columbus, Ohio
First of all, it's a big presumption to think Robinson will keep up his current pace (410 yards per game of total offense) throughout Big Ten play. It's probably a safer bet that Michigan's defense will in fact cost the Wolverines at least four games. But let's say he does continue to put up ridiculous numbers. Recent history has favored the star player from a national-title contender, a la Mark Ingram last season. Six of the past seven winners played in the BCS championship game. Therefore, it stands to reason that should Michigan fall from the national rankings, guys like Terrelle Pryor, Kellen Moore, Ryan Mallett (he'll need to knock off Alabama this weekend)
and perhaps even Nebraska frosh Taylor Martinez will start hogging the spotlight.
Stewart, thanks for picking Texas Tech to upset UT. I was honestly worried Texas was going to lose in Lubbock, but once you picked Tech, I knew we were safe. Please pick OU and Nebraska as well. Thanks.
-- Alan, Houston
Nice picks for the upset this week! Either you were living on another planet or you were on some really good drugs when you said Washington (seriously, Washington?) would upset or even come close to beating the Huskers.
-- Chad Hutchens, Laramie, Wyo.
I hit 80 percent of my picks the first two weeks, and do you know how many e-mails I got about it? Zero. But of course after this weekend's unmitigated pickoff disaster, the e-mails start pouring in. No worries. I can take it. Though I'd be a lot more impressed if you guys had the stones to send these in before the games.
Here's my prediction of your predictions. You will lose five of these picks, most notably Texas and Nebraska.
-- Chris, Portland, Ore.
Well played, sir.
I just finished watching Nebraska's drubbing of UW, and in light of that humiliation, I have a question about Jake Locker. I am absolutely not disputing his athleticism, but given his performance today (4-of-20 for 71 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions), does he deserve the hype he's been getting? I just don't get it: His stats are mediocre, and he looked awful today. What gives?
-- Angela, Seattle, Wash.
As I wrote this summer, Locker is the rare player whose "hype" was trickling down from the NFL rather than vice versa. Personally, I've long ago given up trying to figure out which quarterbacks will succeed at the next level and which won't. If you'd told me in 2005 that five years later Matt Leinart would be a career backup just cut by his original team, I'd have said you were out of your mind. Of course, I would have said the same thing if you told me in 2006 that JaMarcus Russell would be a No. 1 pick the following spring. I don't claim to be an NFL talent evaluator. I leave that to the "professionals."
With that in mind, I drank the Kool-Aid when guys like Mel Kiper and Todd McShay started speaking about Locker as if he were the second coming of John Elway. Kiper on April 7: "If you had to ask me right now who is going to be the No. 1 pick in the 2011 draft, I would say it's etched in stone it's going to be Jake Locker." McShay on July 14: "Just finished Locker '09 tape. Anyone that thinks he's not [round one] talent either hasn't done homework or doesn't know how to eval[uate] QB's." And now comes the backtracking. McShay after Saturday's game: "Watched all 16 Locker misses, incl[uding] 2 picks + 1 pick erased due to flag. Of the 17, 8 were on Locker. Bad reads, erratic throws. Not good." And: "Definitely mounting concerns about Locker pressing and confidence level..."
Just a guess, here: Perhaps some of that pressing and lack of confidence comes from having been anointed a No. 1 pick more than a year before the actual draft. Between the pundits' hyperbole and Washington's own aggressive Heisman campaign, Locker bore some serious public expectations coming into the season despite relatively modest production his first three seasons. Physically, he's a great talent, and we've seen him make some fantastic plays, but he's yet to do it for a full game against an elite opponent. Hopefully he'll get back on the right track and not pull a Jevan Snead, who, like Locker, had a much higher reputation among the draftnicks than he did in actual NFL war rooms. Says McShay: "... Snead comparisons are crazy. Ease off the panic button folks."
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