Over
Confident
For whatever reason, everyone has been underrating this Missouri team this year. And they keep on finding ways to win. In the telecast of the Oklahoma game, Herbstriet made a great point that Missouri's red zone defense has been consistently good all year and that these "lucky breaks" keep happening too often for them to be just luck. Yet when watching Missouri play or even just looking at the box score, it appears that Missouri has just been very fortunate that their opponents keep making critical mistakes. The other thing which continues to go unnoticed is how Missouri has completely dominated its opponents in the second half (and in the 4th quarter especially). For example, in the Oklahoma game, Missouri had 192 yards in the 4th quarter, while Oklahoma had 7.
Missouri went into College Station and absolutely dominated a decent A&M team. A&M's lone touchdown came late in the game against Missouri's second team defense. This was the same A&M team that put up almost identical offensive numbers against Oklahoma State as Nebraska did, yet held OSU to 150 fewer yards than Nebraska's defense.
Other reasons why Missouri might win:
1) Missouri is the better team. They have a better record than Nebraska and have played a tougher schedule.
2) Turnovers. If Missouri wins the turnover battle, they are almost impossible to beat. Despite playing tougher competition, Missouri has a more impressive turnover margin than this Nebraska team.
3) Sagarin predicts a dead-even tie between these two teams. If this game goes to overtime, huge advantage to Missouri. National Rankings for Red Zone Offense (Missouri: 26, Nebraska: 81) Red Zone Defense (Missouri: 1, Nebraska: 81).