1620: Niles Paul on 1620 and his future/Offense's Change

[HuskerNMO]

And Knapp is talking about the promised land, what exactly, outside of the OSU game shows that Taylor is ready to lead this team anywhere?

Underlined for your pleasure. Your analysis wants to discount a brilliant game against a top-20 opponent. One who finished ranked ahead of us, no less.

Reading comprehension my friend, the word outside excludes something. I was giving him credit for that performance, even if it was against the 88th ranked total defense.

Right, MU didn't have to scheme for Martinez at all. They didn't sell out to stop Martinez, contributing to Helu's record day. You really believe that?

They took bad angles to Helu on a few runs that went to the house, those plays were a result of good blocking and poor play by the safeties, not 11 men watching Taylor and Helu sneaking out of the backfield.

Had his WRs caught the passes he put in their hands, he would not have been benched. You keep wanting to put that game in a "bad" column for Martinez, yet nothing he did in that game was bad. The team sucked, not Martinez.

Yet Lee came in and managed to move the offense pretty well, it actually seemed like we had a chance with Zac in the game, with Taylor? It was over.

And Green would have done better? As I asked you before, what evidence do you have to support that? This is the same Green that got benched against OU in 2009, was barely noticeable against Baylor in 09, and nearly lost the ISU game for us this year. The same Cody who came in to the Holiday Bowl and stunk it up again. Who should we have played instead of Martinez? If you say LaTravis Washington, I'm with you, but that was apparently not an option. Nor was burning Carnes' redshirt, nor was playing Lee (for God knows what reason).

He never lost a game he started, i've posted where the offense was better under Cody than Taylor once he was injured. If you choose to ignore clear statistical evidence that the offense was more productive in 2010 under Cody than under Taylor when injured, then I can't help you

Joe Ganz had WAY more turnovers than Taylor.

14 in 13 games for Ganz in 2008 vs 12 in 12 games for Martinez, way more? Hardly. And Taylor was obscenely lucky that we recovered most of his fumbles, this number should have been far worse.

You're intentionally casting what I'm saying in a false light. Let's be clear about this: Taylor Martinez was the best QB available in 2010. Green was mediocre against mediocre teams, and Lee was allegedly injured and couldn't play. Martinez was not infallible, he was not perfect, he was not the second coming of Dave Humm. He was just the best we had. Don't misconstrue what I'm saying.

Best option when healthy? Probably, yes. When injured? Definitely not.

Taylor was only good against horrible defenses, period. Again, 87% of his rushing yards came against teams in the bottom quarter of the FCS in run defense or a FBS team, and 100% of his rushing touchdowns came against those teams. His 10 touchdown passes came like this, 5 against the 88th ranked defense, 2 against the 70th ranked defense, 1 against the 106th ranked defense, 1 against the 76th ranked defense in FBS and 1 against the 47th ranked defense. If you're scoring at home, 90% of his passing TD's came against teams ranked 70th or lower in the country in total D. I have little doubt that Cody could have posted impressive numbers against those teams also if given the chance.

We went 1-3 with Taylor injured, with him on the field we literally had no shot to win when injured. Burkhead was a better option and more productive lining up behind center, Cody Green would have done better than an injured Taylor. Regardless of the skill level of teams, when Cody was the starting QB after Taylor was hurt we went 2-0 with +8 PPG over those teams defensive averages. With Taylor, we went 1-3 and were -13 PPG compared to those team averages. Those are facts, not opinions, facts. Cody led offenses put more points up against the competitions averages than Taylor's did after he got hurt.

 

[knapplc]

You're right, zoogies. That bolded part is not accurate. It's more accurate to say that Martinez didn't lose us that game, and that he had TD catches dropped first. It's also accurate to say that had those TD passes not been dropped, Taylor likely wasn't going to be pulled. It's also accurate to say Taylor was doing nothing with his legs, but then again, Texas sold out to stop his running game.

The passing game was open, WRs were open, balls were in their hands. It wasn't Taylor that lost that game. That's the moral of the story.

 

[zoogs]

Fair enough: Taylor isn't pulled if we go up and stay up early, and we definitely had 'em with the play calls. I find that a trend with Taylor. When the going's good, you can continue to expect good things, for the most part. But I don't think he's truly shown this year that he can pick himself up after some team struggles, and lead the team to claw its way back to victory. Even OSU was just a shootout that I think we were on top in, for the most part. Certainly outside of that, he seemed to fold a bit in the face of adversity.

I'm a fan of Lee so much (and I know you like the guy too) because he was the kind of guy that saw Kinnie drop a sure touchdown pass and just started rallying and encouraging his teammates for the next play. While an unhealthy, on-the-ball Taylor was electric, I felt that that aspect was lacking in a way that would hurt us if we ever found ourselves in a bind. Everyone can change, though.

I really feel like we look at OSU as a bad defense or good team depending on the argument though. I don't think it's fair to knock Taylor on it, because his performance was all-worldly against the Cowboys. Bad D or not, Taylor far exceeded what we thought he was capable of.

 

[knapplc]

Fair enough: Taylor isn't pulled if we go up and stay up early, and we definitely had 'em with the play calls. I find that a trend with Taylor. When the going's good, you can continue to expect good things, for the most part. But I don't think he's truly shown this year that he can pick himself up after some team struggles, and lead the team to claw its way back to victory. Even OSU was just a shootout that I think we were on top in, for the most part. Certainly outside of that, he seemed to fold a bit in the face of adversity.

I'm a fan of Lee so much (and I know you like the guy too) because he was the kind of guy that saw Kinnie drop a sure touchdown pass and just started rallying and encouraging his teammates for the next play. While an unhealthy, on-the-ball Taylor was electric, I felt that that aspect was lacking in a way that would hurt us if we ever found ourselves in a bind. Everyone can change, though.

I really feel like we look at OSU as a bad defense or good team depending on the argument though. I don't think it's fair to knock Taylor on it, because his performance was all-worldly against the Cowboys. Bad D or not, Taylor far exceeded what we thought he was capable of.

That's just the thing about Martinez, though. He had flashes of brilliance (OSU, the weak teams) and flashes of utter mind-numbingly poor play (latter part of the season, etc). Like you and several others have said all year, he's going to be streaky, and he's going to make mistakes. It's to be hoped that the brilliance becomes more the norm as his career lengthens, but that remains to be seen.

 

[Hercules]

Really everyone is so impressed by Taylor for just a few games against mediocre defenses.

Coming from a guy who thinks that Cody Green is a better QB based on blowing out a Colorado team that had just fired their head coach, and a close call with Iowa State, the above statement means absolutely nothing to me.

 

[HuskerNMO]

Really everyone is so impressed by Taylor for just a few games against mediocre defenses.

Coming from a guy who thinks that Cody Green is a better QB based on blowing out a Colorado team that had just fired their head coach, and a close call with Iowa State, the above statement means absolutely nothing to me.

If you've read, I've said Taylor was a better option when healthy talent wise. However when injured, he was non-existant, I think i've proven that statistically. I think I've also shown that statistically, the offense did better under Cody than an injured Taylor. Cody, +8 PPG over what those defenses allowed on average, Taylor, -13 compared to what those defenses averaged. Cody was +21 in the average column compared to Taylor when he was injured.

Colorado had fired their coach 2 1/2 weeks before our game, they then won 2 straight games and came into Lincoln hoping to become bowl eligible. And since I can't blame the CCG on Taylor according to Knapp, it's not right to blame Cody for Niles fumbling the ball and our D allowing 3 passing TD's to Iowa State.

There is statistical evidence to back up that statement of Taylor being effective only against mediocre defenses. 87% of his rushing yards and 100% of his rushing TD's came against bottom 25% run defenses, 90% of his passing TD's came against defenses that were ranked 70th or lower in total defense.

Even Zac Lee did great against the scrubs last year.

 

[knapplc]

Carson Coffman from Kansas State was +4 against CU & ISU's average scoring this year.

Quinn Mecham from Kansas was +9 against CU & ISU's average scoring this year.

This stat of Green being +8 against CU & ISU doesn't seem so impressive in context. Neither Mecham nor Coffman are much of much when it comes to QBS - especially Mecham.

 

[HuskerNMO]

Carson Coffman from Kansas State was +4 against CU & ISU's average scoring this year.

Quinn Mecham from Kansas was +9 against CU & ISU's average scoring this year.

This stat of Green being +8 against CU & ISU doesn't seem so impressive in context. Neither Mecham nor Coffman are much of much when it comes to QBS - especially Mecham.

We aren't comparing Cody to other QB's from schools, just showing that a healthy Cody was more productive than an injured Taylor, but I would also take Mecham or Coffman over an injured Taylor Martinez also, or even Collin Klein for KSU who ran for 127 yards and 2 TD's against Texas, and 141 yards against MU (compared to Taylor's 21 and 16). In fact i'd take just about any scholarship QB in the Big 12 over an injured Taylor Martinez for what it's worth.

 

[knapplc]

Carson Coffman from Kansas State was +4 against CU & ISU's average scoring this year.

Quinn Mecham from Kansas was +9 against CU & ISU's average scoring this year.

This stat of Green being +8 against CU & ISU doesn't seem so impressive in context. Neither Mecham nor Coffman are much of much when it comes to QBS - especially Mecham.

We aren't comparing Cody to other QB's from schools, just showing that a healthy Cody was more productive than an injured Taylor, but I would also take Mecham or Coffman over an injured Taylor Martinez also, or even Collin Klein for KSU who ran for 127 yards and 2 TD's against Texas, and 141 yards against MU. In fact i'd take just about any scholarship QB in the BIg 12 over an injured Taylor Martinez for what it's worth.

It's pertinent because it shows Cody wasn't doing much impressive against these schools. Clearly Bo felt injured Taylor was better than healthy Cody, and we know that because they kept putting Martinez out there.

Would Green have beaten OU or A&M had he played them? Doubtful - Mecham got STOMPED by A&M, 45-10. Neither team played OU, and Coffman didn't play either OU or A&M. The bottom line is, putting up more points against CU & ISU than CU & ISU average isn't an endorsement of Cody Green, nor does it mean he would have been more successful against the teams we lost to when Taylor was QB. It's completely hypothetical, and completely pointless.

Moving forward we have the comfort of knowing we have at least one QB on the roster who has proven he can beat top 20 teams. Whether that guy continues to start is entirely up to Bo & Co. Personally, I don't care who starts, as long as we move the ball and put some points up.

 

[Hercules]

Really everyone is so impressed by Taylor for just a few games against mediocre defenses.

Coming from a guy who thinks that Cody Green is a better QB based on blowing out a Colorado team that had just fired their head coach, and a close call with Iowa State, the above statement means absolutely nothing to me.

If you've read, I've said Taylor was a better option when healthy talent wise.

Roll 212:

I would take a healthy Cody over an injured Taylor any day, I would also take a healthy Cody over a healthy Taylor as our starting QB.

 

[Hercules]

I don't even know why this particular debate is taking place. Cody Green's performances against ISU and CU are never going to convince me he'd have been better than Taylor against Oklahoma or A&M. Short of Cody going back in time and actually playing in those games and proving it, there's nothing that's going to convince me, certainly not hypothetical statistical matchups.

Furthermore, this thread started as another thread discussing whether or not the offense at the beginning of the year was completely overhauled overnight during fall camp, and whether the decision to start Taylor was the one that doomed our championship dreams from the get-go. Or at least that's how I interpreted it.

Yet here we are debating injured Martinez vs. healthy Cody Green, which is completely irrelevant to the decision the coaches made at the beginning of the season. Since the middle of 2009 we have been moving toward the spread option attack, and they had to pick a starting QB. I fail to understand how there is at this point any question on why Martinez won the job. He was simply a better fit for what the coaches wanted to do.

 

[knapplc]

I would Roll 212 to zoogies' post paraphrasing Niles Paul's interview where Niles said we switched offenses mid-Fall Camp, but then I'm of the opinion that Bo stated his intentions to run something resembling this offense when he first got here, and we've recruited to that end as well, and mostly I just like TDS and wanted to use Roll 212, too.

 

[The Dude]

Funny how fast this fanbase turned on a QB who gave our offense a little bit of a pulse.

Also, Rex Burkhead was our best QB against ISU and CU. True fact.

 

[HuskerNMO]

Really everyone is so impressed by Taylor for just a few games against mediocre defenses.

Coming from a guy who thinks that Cody Green is a better QB based on blowing out a Colorado team that had just fired their head coach, and a close call with Iowa State, the above statement means absolutely nothing to me.

If you've read, I've said Taylor was a better option when healthy talent wise.

Roll 212:

I would take a healthy Cody over an injured Taylor any day, I would also take a healthy Cody over a healthy Taylor as our starting QB.

Best option when healthy? Probably, yes. When injured? Definitely not.

Of course you cut out the rest of the post where I said that was due to leadership and ability to run our offense. And that was an opinion, which is all you've posted in this thread. I've posted statistics to back up my claims, and you've used nothing.

You said CU's coach was "just fired", and implied they were playing poorly. Yet I refuted that saying he'd been fired 2 1/2 weeks prior and they had won 2 straight after that, but you gloss over that. Obviously I can't change your opinion, but at least mine is based on something other than ignorance of statistics.

 

[knapplc]

I've posted statistics to back up my claims, and you've used nothing.

You said CU's coach was "just fired", and implied they were playing poorly. Yet I refuted that saying he'd been fired 2 1/2 weeks prior and they had won 2 straight after that, but you gloss over that. Obviously I can't change your opinion, but at least mine is based on something other than ignorance of statistics.

You mean the stats where Cody was +8 against cellar-dwelling CU and mid-level ISU? Coulda swore I posted stats showing that even craptastic QBs from KSU and KU did better against the same competition.

But if that's the only tune you know, I say play on. :band