I think the fact that the Big10 invited NU proves that TV footprint does not drive expansion. The Big10 chose the Nebraska market over the New Jersey/NYC market. FSU moves the dial more than Missouri or Maryland. Which game would you watch FSU vs LSU or Maryland vs Florida?
Why would FSU go the the SEC? $$$$$
I think it is a done deal, and now the ACC needs one more team and I don't think they have more the offer than the Big East when the Big East is negotiating a new primary rights deal.
That's not correct. Ratings and footprint, in that order, drive these decisions. It's a one-two punch--you get national brands that everyone wants to see, but then you get a large local base to show it in, as that's the money that keeps the lights on in your conference.
Plus, there's no cap to your ad rates--the better your conference gets, the higher the rates go, and the more money you make. And you can soak your footprint areas (sometimes 5x) more than you do non-footprint areas for ad rates.
With the Big 10, they got a ratings-grabber in Nebraska. One of the next two Big 10 expansion targets will need to significantly expand the local footprint (e.g. Rutgers and NY/NJ, Maryland and DC/Baltimore), and the other can be another 'national brand' (e.g. Kansas, Notre Dame)
With the SEC and Florida State, you have a different set of circumstances: Florida likely doesn't want to compete against FSU any more than they are, and Florida State doesn't expand the footprint--the SEC is already in the whole of Florida.
From a media market standpoint, that's why Missouri makes sense--they're net new markets that would go along great with the Houston and 1/2 of the San Antonio market they'll get. Forget that Missouri plays substandard sports--they still get TV sets in major metropolitan areas.
I'd wager the only way we'll see FSU (or Clemson/Ga. Tech) getting a SEC invite is if they break down and go to 16 teams. With the exception of Maryland, they will have expanded into all of the contiguous markets available and added two marquee names.