Week 5 "Expert" Picks: Nebraska @ Wisconsin

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THE BUZZ: The first Big Ten game in Nebraska history is a doozy, as it matches the two best teams in the league. The teams haven't met since 1974. Wisconsin hasn't been tested; can its defense hold up against Nebraska's strong rushing attack? Conversely, the Huskers' "Blackshirt" defense has looked shaky; can it stop the Badgers' rushing attack? If not, Wisconsin QB Russell Wilson will be able to use play action to his heart's content.

THE PICK: Wisconsin 31 - Nebraska 24

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Phil Steele

The Badgers get the honor of being the official B10 welcoming committee in a night gm at Camp Randall with the GameDay crew on hand. Neb was 13-2 SU in B12 openers. NU did knock off OKSt on the road LY and Pelini is 6-1 ATS on away from home vs ranked tms. UW is 1-3 SU/ATS at home vs ranked tms but did knock off #1 Ohio St LY. The 4-0 SU/ATS Badgers have faced little resistance thus far outscoring foes by 40 ppg incl LW’s 59-10 whipping of SD with 25-9 FD and 612-173 yd edges. Difference maker QB Wilson is #2 FBS pass eff (284 ypg, 76%, 11-1). The Huskers didn’t fall prey to look ahead and won the biggest home gm in Wyom history 38-14 with a 490-305 yd edge. QB Martinez (421, 6.7) and RB Burkhead (420, 6.7) are #2 and 3 in B10 rushing although the pass gm has been inconsistent in the new off. Blackshirts were without potential #1DC DT Crick (concussion) and CB Dennard (leg) saw action for the 1st time TY LW and NU has all’d 390 ypg to FBS foes TY. NU has the D (#15-29) and ST (#4-78) edges while UW has the off (#11-30) and home crowd although NU received a record number of ticket requests for this gm and have instructed their fans to wear black.

PHIL’S FORECAST: WISCONSIN 33 - NEBRASKA 30

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CBS Sports

Dennis Dodd (W) - Brett McMurphy (N) - Tom Fornelli (W)

Adam Jacobi (W) - Jerry Hinnen (W) - Chip Patterson (W)

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Collegefootballnews.com

Nebraska (4-0) at Wisconsin (4-0) Oct. 1, 8:00, ABC

Here’s The Deal … Considering college football started back in 1869, it’s hard to come by anything that’s truly historic. While Nebraska’s move to the Big Ten might be overhyped and overblown just a wee bit, it does represent a major moment to remember.

There wasn’t much fanfare when Utah and Colorado began their new lives in the Pac-12, and it wasn’t exactly earth shattering when Virginia Tech, Boston College, and Miami kicked off ACC play after taking off from the Big East a few years ago. It was a big deal when Penn State started out the 1993 season with a Big Ten opener against Minnesota, but that was a home game against a bad team.

Nebraska going to the Big Ten is different. It feels right geographically, and it feels like the right fit at the right time in the new world of conference expansion and realignment. More importantly, at least for the moment, this is a really, really big game.

Call it the Barry Bowl. Legendary Wisconsin head coach and athletic director Barry Alvarez is a Nebraska alum, and from the moment he set foot on the UW campus over two decades ago he talked openly about the idea of the two big red schools squaring off. When the Husker head coaching job was available a few times since the retirement of Tom Osborne, Alvarez was front and center on rumors to take over, but he decided to continue to build Wisconsin into a powerhouse, and now his dream is coming true.

Nebraska’s inaugural Big Ten game couldn’t be against anyone else.

The two schools are roughly eight hours apart, but they haven’t met since 1974 – a 21-20 Badger win – and they’ve only played five times, with the first game an 18-0 Badger win in 1901. Now the two teams are in opposite divisions, and while this first game is big, it’s possible they could hook up again in the inaugural Big Ten Championship game, too.

For Wisconsin, this is its chance to put its name in the national title discussion. The respect is there, and the ranking is fine, but beating up on UNLV, Oregon State, Northern Illinois, and South Dakota hasn’t moved the needle much. To have any shot of breaking into the penthouse currently reserved by Oklahoma, LSU, and Alabama, the Badgers have to come up with a beating against a team with a big brand name, and the chances will be there over the next month with road trips to Michigan State and Ohio State to follow the light scrimmage against Indiana in two weeks.

The Badgers have been flawless over the first four games. The passing game is among the most efficient in America, the defense has been a brick wall before garbage time, and the Wisconsin running game is the Wisconsin running game. There hasn’t been any drama so far on the field, there haven’t been any tests, and there hasn’t been a slip up in any way.

On the flip side, Nebraska has been shaky. The normally stout defense can’t seem to find any consistency, the offense is putting up points, but it’s one-dimensional, and it took way too much of an effort to get by mediocre teams like Wyoming, Washington, and Fresno State. None of that will matter if the Huskers can get out of Madison with a win, but the hits won’t stop coming even if they do come up with the upset.

If this game wasn’t big enough, next week’s Big Ten home opener against Ohio State – who gets all the players back off suspension – will take on a life of its own. There are still dates at Penn State and Michigan to deal with, and home games against Michigan State and Iowa won’t be easy, but for now, everything is focused on Wisconsin.

After months of talk and after all the building excitement, it’s finally here. If the game can come close to matching the hype, it’ll be worth it.

Why Nebraska Might Win: Wisconsin hasn’t faced anyone with a defensive line.

Glossed over a bit in all the big numbers and the ease of wins against an awful schedule is that the offensive line has been just okay, not elite. The Badger runners are getting their big dashes when they get to the second level, and the overall numbers are fine, but it took a little while to get the engine moving against South Dakota and Oregon State. The Wisconsin formula is simple: beat up smaller, sadder defensive lines, and the yards will come. The difference this week is that the Nebraska defensive front, with a relatively healthy Jared Crick anchoring the inside, won’t wear down.

If this is close, the Huskers should have a huge advantage on special teams. Thanks to Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska leads the nation in kickoff returns and is solid in the punt return game. Brett Maher is second in the nation in punting and is 8-of-9 on field goal attempts, with the only miss coming last week from 50 yards out at the end of the first half. Wisconsin’s punting game has been great and the punt return game has been terrific, but redshirt freshman Kyle French has to show he can come through in the clutch in place of injured starter Philip Welch. French is 2-of-4 so far, but both his misses were from 50 yards out.

Why Wisconsin Might Win: Nebraska can’t exploit Wisconsin’s Achilles’ heel. The Badger secondary is banged up, hurt mostly by the loss of Devin Smith to a foot injury. Northern Illinois had a little success through the air early on, and South Dakota tried to push the ball deep, but neither one had much success. Nebraska’s maddeningly inefficient passing game is only coming up with 167 yards per game, and Wisconsin is going to take its chances deep and tee off against the run.

The Badger defensive front is fine, but it’s nothing special. The linebacking corps, though, is playing at a high level, and if Chris Borland and company can spend the entire game teeing off on Taylor Martinez and Rex Burkhead, the Husker ground game will sputter and struggle. Since getting ripped apart by Andy Dalton in the Rose Bowl, the Wisconsin coaching staff appears to have figured out how to keep running quarterbacks in check, stopping NIU’s Chandler Harnish and South Dakota’s Dante Warren cold. Martinez and Burkhead have to be brilliant for Nebraska to win, but they won’t be if there’s no passing game.

Nebraska’s bigger problem is a lack of pass rush. The Husker defensive front has been awful so far at making things happen behind the line and have just six sacks in the first four games. The only way to slow down the Wisconsin offense is to stop the backs before they get time to wait for the hole to develop, and force the passing game to speed up. However …

What To Watch Out For: Russell Wilson is playing at a Heisman-caliber level. It’s been quickly forgotten how accurate Scott Tolzien was last year for the Badgers, leading the nation in passing efficiency, but he couldn’t move. Wilson is deadly accurate when he gets time, and he’s tremendous at being able to buy space and an extra second with his feet. While the plan is for him to stay in the pocket as much as possible, he’s proving to be even more dangerous when he gives the option of running, scrambles around, and then finds his man deep.

It’s not that Taylor Martinez can’t throw he bombed away on Oklahoma State for 323 yards and five touchdowns last year, it’s that he can’t do it consistently. He’ll connect on deep plays now and then to take advantage of cheating safeties, but he’s barely completing half his passes on the year with two straight 10-of-21 games against Fresno State and Washington. However, he’s running like he did before hurting his ankle last year with 431 yards and seven touchdowns despite being held under wraps by Wyoming last week. Nebraska hasn’t lost when Martinez has run for 25 yards or more.

What Will Happen: Nebraska might be the story coming into the game, but it’ll be Russell Wilson by the time it’s over. The Badger free agent pickup has been nearly flawless so far, and this week he’ll show off his stuff on a national stage. The Huskers will run well, but not well enough to overcome the Wisconsin’s balance in what will be a statement-making moment for Bret Bielema’s program.

CFN Prediction: Wisconsin 38 ... Nebraska 24

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ESPN Bloggers

Adam Rittenberg: Wisconsin doesn't lose many games in Madison, and the offense has been operating in fifth gear for nearly a year now. Nebraska's special teams and big-play offense will keep this game very close, but ultimately, Russell Wilson makes enough plays in the fourth quarter to secure a big W. ... Wisconsin 31, Nebraska 26

Brian Bennett: I see a lot of points in this one, as I'm not sure Nebraska's defense can win the point of attack or whether Wisconsin can contain the speed on the edge of the Huskers offense. I think the Badgers are a little more balanced, especially in the passing game, and that makes the difference. ... Wisconsin 38, Nebraska 28

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SI.com

The city of Madison has reeled in its legendary Halloween street parties in recent years after too many incidents required tear gas and pepper spray to break up rowdy students. While no tear gas or pepper spray is expected on Saturday night, should the Badgers welcome Nebraska to the Big Ten with a loss, students will likely throw a party on State Street that resembles some of those legendary bashes. The Nebraska-Wisconsin matchup has been discussed all summer, and with both teams having glorified scrimmages for the season's first four weeks, both teams are eager to see themselves against top-level competition. Wisconsin AD Barry Alvarez said it is the hottest ticket he has seen in his 21 years at the school. With the historic visit of a legendary program (and an estimated 15,000 ticketless fans), ESPN GameDay's presence and the first top-10 matchup at Camp Randall Stadium since 1962, the pieces are in place for a memorable night that will help shape the BCS chase as the calendar turns to October.

1. Can Nebraska badger the Badgers? The competition thus far has offered little resistance to the Wisconsin offense, but the Badgers appear to have a unit that could drive down a 200-yard field with ease. Defensive coordinators always like to say they want to force an opponent to be one-dimensional, but that does not appear to be possible with Wisconsin. A dominating offensive line that averages 322 pounds paves the way for a pair of stud backs in Montee Ball and James White. And when Wisconsin throws, it's just as impressive with N.C. State transfer Russell Wilson completing 76 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns and one interception. Nebraska boasts at least three NFL-type players on defense in DT Jared Crick, LB Lavonte David and CB Alfonzo Dennard, but the unit has been inconsistent this season and cannot afford any lapses on Saturday. "They really haven't changed their offense much (with the addition of Wilson)," said Nebraska coach Bo Pelini. "He just fits in well."

2. Taylor Martinez loves to run, but he's going to have to throw. The Nebraska quarterback is second in the nation in rushing among QBs with 105.3 yards per game and seven touchdowns, but if he is going to lead the Huskers to victory, he is going to have to be successful throwing downfield. Wisconsin's defense, which comes into the game ranked No. 7 nationally, is presumably going to focus on stopping the running of Martinez and Rex Burkhead (105 ypg), leaving young receivers Kenny Bell and Jamal Turner with room to run. Martinez will not have to throw for 323 yards like he did in a win over Oklahoma State last year, but he will likely need to exceed 200 yards passing -- something he's only done twice in 16 career starts.

3. Maybe we'll meet you in Indianapolis. For all of the excitement and anticipation surrounding this matchup, it may be just a prelude to the first Big Ten championship game on Dec. 3. Both teams are considered the favorites to win their divisions. Nebraska's chief competition may be Michigan, and the Huskers have to visit Ann Arbor in November. Wisconsin should be favored to win its remaining league games despite tough trips to Ohio State and Illinois. Neither side will be holding anything back this weekend to save for December, but any subplots born Saturday night may be continued nine weeks down the road.

The Pick

The last time Camp Randall braced itself for a wild Saturday night was last season when the Badgers welcomed top-ranked Ohio State in mid-October. Wisconsin jumped to a 21-0 lead and rode the emotion to a 31-18 win. The atmosphere figures to be similar this week, and with the addition of Wilson, Wisconsin appears to be better. Nebraska has plenty of talent, and Bo Pelini is an excellent defensive coach who will figure ways to slow the balanced Badger attack. But in the end, Martinez and the Huskers will have trouble keeping pace with Wisconsin for four quarters.

WISCONSIN 34 - NEBRASKA 20

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Big 10 Report - Week 5September 29, 2011

By ASA Share

Wisconsin (-9.5) vs. Nebraska - 8:00 PM ET, ABC UW:4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS -

Last week: vs. South Dakota St, W 59-10UN:4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS - Last week: at Wyoming, W 38-14This is quite possibly the game of the year (and possibly a preview of the Big Ten Championship) for the Big Ten as two Top-10 teams matchup at Camp Randall. ESPN's College Gameday crew will be on hand as Nebraska plays its very first conference game as a member of the Big Ten. Wisconsin opened at -7, but that number quickly rose and now sits at -9.5.

Wisconsin has been the league's only consistently dominant team through four weeks, albeit against a fairly weak schedule. Wisconsin ranks 8th in total offense and 6th in scoring offense with QB Wilson completing 75.8% with 11 touchdowns and RB's White and Ball with 663 rush yards and 12 touchdowns combined.

Defensively the Badgers are allowing just 247 yards per game (8th nationally) and 8.5 points per game (3rd). The competition level goes up significantly this week at home, where Wisconsin is 45-4 since the start at the 2004 season and 34-3 under coach Bielema. Those three teams to beat Wisconsin at home all went on to play in BCS Bowls.

The Huskers have been quite one-dimensional on offense thus far. QB Martinez and RB Burkhead have combined for 841 rush yards (7.6 YPC) and 14 touchdowns. But Martinez is completing just 50% of his passes with four touchdowns and two interceptions. The Huskers haven't needed an effective passing attack yet as their rushing game has been sufficient through four games.

Nebraska's defense hasn't been as dominant as it was supposed to be this season as it ranks 52nd in total defense and 48th in scoring defense. However, the Huskers haven't been at full strength yet as three preseason All-American candidates - DT Crick, LB David, and CB Dennard - will all play together Saturday for the first time this season.

Something to consider:Wisconsin is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall - a run started with a 13-point win over then-No. 1 Ohio State at home last October.

 
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Fair enough replies but.....

1. Very little regarding Wisconsin's ultra, ultra creampuff schedule so far. They call Wyoming, Washington & Fresno St "mediocre". What would they call Wisconsin's opponents so far?

2. Imo, Steele is easily the best of the above and he calls it a 3 pt game.

3. No positive mention that NU is blooded and battle tested. I think that's worth 3 pts easy.

4. No mention that our offense is getting better each week. That's ok though.....Beck knows.

We'll be ready.

GBR!!

 
I think we all know it comes down to, can Martinez pass well enough for the 0-line not to have go up against an 8 or 9 man stacked d-line. As in most most of our big games, it comes down to Martinez and his passing ability. I think Beck opens up the total playbook early.

GBR!!!

 
I think we all know it comes down to, can Martinez pass well enough for the 0-line not to have go up against an 8 or 9 man stacked d-line. As in most most of our big games, it comes down to Martinez and his passing ability. I think Beck opens up the total playbook early.

GBR!!!

if TM can't throw, we're screwed. defense will HAVE TO PLAY....with Russell Wilson, we lose in a shoot out.

 
Obviously, we'll need to weather the early storm. That place will be rocking and they'll be looking to "welcome us to the big10" in a big way, I'm sure. I certainly hope we play well. If we don't have any turnovers and if our D is all healthy and playing their game, we can hang and could win. Nobody knows what Wisconsin looks like against a decent team so we'll find out. I just worry that they'll explode out of the gates and get up early and we will flounder trying to catch up.

 
I don't know how many people are seriously expecting us to win. I think we have a decent shot, but I'm also very concerned that we'll get blown out on national television.

I think it's either going to be a close shootout type game that could go either way or a blowout in Wisconsin's favor.

 
I don't know how many people are seriously expecting us to win. I think we have a decent shot, but I'm also very concerned that we'll get blown out on national television.

I think it's either going to be a close shootout type game that could go either way or a blowout in Wisconsin's favor.
Not only do I expect a Nebraska win, I'd be moderately shocked if it's by less than 10 points.

 
Obviously, we'll need to weather the early storm. That place will be rocking and they'll be looking to "welcome us to the big10" in a big way, I'm sure. I certainly hope we play well. If we don't have any turnovers and if our D is all healthy and playing their game, we can hang and could win. Nobody knows what Wisconsin looks like against a decent team so we'll find out. I just worry that they'll explode out of the gates and get up early and we will flounder trying to catch up.
I think its just as likely that Nebraska explodes out of the gates and Wisconsin has to flounder to catch up.

 
You know whats not fair? The fact that Wisconsin can score 3 points, we score 20 points, and Wisconsin is still picked to win.

 
Lol @ Watson... True. Now get the hell out of her... go back to Kentucky.

DO NOT LIKE SI's prediction or anyone else who cites Taylor's lack of big passing yardage games as a marker of his ability to pass. There's a reason he doesn't pile up the yardage... That is not what our offense is predicated on. If we needed Taylor to go all Mike Leach Air Tard offense on people, we would have him do it or get someone in there that could. He runs within the confines of our offense and it works. So Taylor has operated our run first offense well for the ~1 year he's been healthy. When he was unhealthy, he couldn't do anything well, so don't use that as proof.

 
You know whats not fair? The fact that Wisconsin can score 3 points, we score 20 points, and Wisconsin is still picked to win.
I was thinking the same. They're just so damn good. You can beat them in any way possible, including scoreboard, and they still find a way to win. Heart of a champion.

 
Lol @ Watson... True. Now get the hell out of her... go back to Kentucky.

DO NOT LIKE SI's prediction or anyone else who cites Taylor's lack of big passing yardage games as a marker of his ability to pass. There's a reason he doesn't pile up the yardage... That is not what our offense is predicated on. If we needed Taylor to go all Mike Leach Air Tard offense on people, we would have him do it or get someone in there that could. He runs within the confines of our offense and it works. So Taylor has operated our run first offense well for the ~1 year he's been healthy. When he was unhealthy, he couldn't do anything well, so don't use that as proof.

Exactly.

You and a handful of other posters here grasp that. Because most posters here are so young they just can't get a handle on anything but a Clownahan or Callawatts offense with it's priorities. That's why they whine, sob and cry until the Missouri river overflows every single day because they feel the priorities are all wrong.

Even averaging over 40 pts a game this year so far.......even with Tmart's record when healthy now at 12 - 1 (forget our wrs dropping his passes all game long vs Texas last year, of course it was still Tmart's fault)......even currently with 13th in the nation in scoring offense (with a decent sos). I don't think they'll get it for a long time.....sigh.

Oh well, the upside is this offense is getting more dangerous every week. The cheeseheads better tighten their chin straps.

GBR!!

 
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