Stats Don't Lie

[bshirt]

This is no secret. They know it in the NFL, too. Teams that can run the ball, wear down a defense and control the clock generally win more games.

So why does everyone insist on passing?

Because you can't just declare your intent to run 75% of the time and pass 25%.

It's hard to maintain a ground game. It's easier to defend, especially if you don't fear the pass. The Husker fans wondered why we don't just pound the ball with Burkhead between the tackles. Well last week we handed it to Burkhead 10 times in the first half and he got 11 yards. That smashmouth running game doesn't look so good when the offense is getting its mouth smashed and getting a few three and outs. The running game gets going when the passing game loosens up the linebackers, and play action fakes actually have meaning.

I hope we keep throwing. Long. Short. Whatever it takes to whoever is open.

Those 200+ rushing games didn't happen because we committed to the run. They happened because the whole offense was working.

There a LOT of truth to that. However, of course we're not the NFL which is a totally different animal than cfb.

TO ran the ball 80% of the time for about 20 years and his offenses were superb. Some years even higher. Looks like GT currently does ok with about the same ration too. PA was used by TO for maybe 15 or so times a game. The key for TO was the option. You can't stack the box and the edges without totally giving up all pass coverage. That's exactly why even guys like Frost & Frazier were frequently throwing to wrs that were so comically wide open.

Yeah, we don't have the Olines of anywhere close to the quality TO had (to say the very, very least) so yes we've got to pass more to open things up. But if we continue to recruit road-graders in a couple of years we really will have the option of decided how we want to crush a defense.

The point I'm trying to make is that successfully running the ball has a cumulative effect on defenses. "Especially" now with almost all defenses geared to stop the pass. Getting burned through the air stings badly but getting run over is total and complete disaster with a psychological death statement. That's why we're 22 - 0 when we can run the ball. That's also why currently and TO's teams in the past almost always had greater success in the 2nd half.

To a large degree it's a matter of will. We don't have the Oline to impose our will on the good defenses but we did and could again as defenses aren't recruited and coached to stop the run as much any more. We really could.

Otoh, it sure doesn't hurt to have sensational young wrs who actually catch the ball either. The last few years we've had extremely efficient pass dropping machines at WR but with the new coaches it sure looks like that "tradition" is gone.

I don't know what Bo/Beck's final goal on offense is but it's almost certain the the Big10's defense aren't going to like it.

GBR!!

 

[lionsfan93]

This is no secret. They know it in the NFL, too. Teams that can run the ball, wear down a defense and control the clock generally win more games.

So why does everyone insist on passing?

Because you can't just declare your intent to run 75% of the time and pass 25%.

It's hard to maintain a ground game. It's easier to defend, especially if you don't fear the pass. The Husker fans wondered why we don't just pound the ball with Burkhead between the tackles. Well last week we handed it to Burkhead 10 times in the first half and he got 11 yards. That smashmouth running game doesn't look so good when the offense is getting its mouth smashed and getting a few three and outs. The running game gets going when the passing game loosens up the linebackers, and play action fakes actually have meaning.

I hope we keep throwing. Long. Short. Whatever it takes to whoever is open.

Those 200+ rushing games didn't happen because we committed to the run. They happened because the whole offense was working.

I believe you are correct for the most part, however I would argue that creative running tag-teamed with execution can still be effective whether or not you are doing well in the passing game.

The playcalling between the first half and the second half of last week's game was significantly different, specifically when diagnosing the run game. We brought out this new flexbone set and we used the diamond set, two formations I don't remember seeing at all during the first half. For argument's sake I'm going to dub this flexbone formation the NU-Flex. The quick hitter with Burkhead in the NU-Flex was devastating against tOSU in the second half.

Furthermore, tOSU knew we were going to run the ball to kill the clock when we had four minutes and some change left in the game, and tOSU couldn't stop it. Now whether you attribute this to tOSU being shell-shocked or our offense rolling on all cylinders, that's for another debate.

BINGO! Creativity in the run is where we are going to find our success. I would like to think that Taylor is going to continue to get better in the passing game and that we will be able to run to open the pass. But even if we never get there, we should be okay becasue our success relies on being able to run the ball.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

Oh yeah, I loved the variations in the Nebraska play-calling and schemes.

A rapidly improving O-line makes a huge difference, i.e. when these plays don't work the OC is accused of getting too cute.

But passing is a part of this. Even the threat to pass. And while some folks freak out about Taylor's stats, his 8.0 yards per attempt is about right for an efficient and credible passing threat. And those occasional long bombs to our speedy young receivers? If you don't like these, you don't like football.

Here's what people forget about Tom Osborne and those 400 per game rushing teams. Those were fancy offenses. Much fancier and more difficult to execute than say, a West Coast offense, which some people mistakenly viewed as sophisticated passing offenses when they actually had more in common with playground ball. Osborne's option offenses required recruiting specialized players to play a specialized college game that may actually have hurt their chances at professional careers. And while a distressing number of fretful and nostalgiac Husker fans fear the forward pass and the risk of interception, the triple option is always a fumble waiting to happen. Nebraska and Oklahoma used to lose a wild pitch out a couple times a game (Oklahoma would lose five fumbles and still win) and the fans didn't scream "stop running the ball!"

When it worked, the power option was a thing of beauty. But you can't look back at the glory days, decide we need to get back to the running game and make it magically be 1995 again.

And when THIS offense works, as it did (finally) against Ohio State and Washington this year, and in big games like KState, Washington and Oklahoma State last year.....wow. That's fun football.

Also, offenses work better when the defense gets them the ball back quicker.

 

[CornHOLIO]

I don't remember T.O. teams EVER running the ball 80% of the time..More like 65% at his peak?

 

[Scratchtown]

This is no secret. They know it in the NFL, too. Teams that can run the ball, wear down a defense and control the clock generally win more games.

So why does everyone insist on passing?

Because you can't just declare your intent to run 75% of the time and pass 25%.

It's hard to maintain a ground game. It's easier to defend, especially if you don't fear the pass. The Husker fans wondered why we don't just pound the ball with Burkhead between the tackles. Well last week we handed it to Burkhead 10 times in the first half and he got 11 yards. That smashmouth running game doesn't look so good when the offense is getting its mouth smashed and getting a few three and outs. The running game gets going when the passing game loosens up the linebackers, and play action fakes actually have meaning.

I hope we keep throwing. Long. Short. Whatever it takes to whoever is open.

Those 200+ rushing games didn't happen because we committed to the run. They happened because the whole offense was working.

I believe you are correct for the most part, however I would argue that creative running tag-teamed with execution can still be effective whether or not you are doing well in the passing game.

The playcalling between the first half and the second half of last week's game was significantly different, specifically when diagnosing the run game. We brought out this new flexbone set and we used the diamond set, two formations I don't remember seeing at all during the first half. For argument's sake I'm going to dub this flexbone formation the NU-Flex. The quick hitter with Burkhead in the NU-Flex was devastating against tOSU in the second half.

Furthermore, tOSU knew we were going to run the ball to kill the clock when we had four minutes and some change left in the game, and tOSU couldn't stop it. Now whether you attribute this to tOSU being shell-shocked or our offense rolling on all cylinders, that's for another debate.

Here is the thing, we are doing alot of what TO used to do with the running game. We aren't doing many different plays, its the formations. Multiple formations but running mostly the same plays. Its harder to prepare for as a defense during the week. Here is that word again, "Multiple" everyone hated it, but we're being multiple in formations but keeping the plays simple. I like where we are headed offensively. I think that once we get away from this 2 gap defensive scheme we'll be alright on defense as well.

I'm not saying that it all works the same in all levels of football, but when I was a younger kid in the late 90's my dad was a coach at my home town here in nebraska. He always told me that our head coach's offense didn't have alot of different plays, but it had alot of different sets/formations...while that coach was there, they went 26-6.

 

[bshirt]

I don't remember T.O. teams EVER running the ball 80% of the time..More like 65% at his peak?

Surely you jest.

 

[bshirt]

Oh yeah, I loved the variations in the Nebraska play-calling and schemes.

A rapidly improving O-line makes a huge difference, i.e. when these plays don't work the OC is accused of getting too cute.

But passing is a part of this. Even the threat to pass. And while some folks freak out about Taylor's stats, his 8.0 yards per attempt is about right for an efficient and credible passing threat. And those occasional long bombs to our speedy young receivers? If you don't like these, you don't like football.

Here's what people forget about Tom Osborne and those 400 per game rushing teams. Those were fancy offenses. Much fancier and more difficult to execute than say, a West Coast offense, which some people mistakenly viewed as sophisticated passing offenses when they actually had more in common with playground ball. Osborne's option offenses required recruiting specialized players to play a specialized college game that may actually have hurt their chances at professional careers. And while a distressing number of fretful and nostalgiac Husker fans fear the forward pass and the risk of interception, the triple option is always a fumble waiting to happen. Nebraska and Oklahoma used to lose a wild pitch out a couple times a game (Oklahoma would lose five fumbles and still win) and the fans didn't scream "stop running the ball!"

When it worked, the power option was a thing of beauty. But you can't look back at the glory days, decide we need to get back to the running game and make it magically be 1995 again.

And when THIS offense works, as it did (finally) against Ohio State and Washington this year, and in big games like KState, Washington and Oklahoma State last year.....wow. That's fun football.

Also, offenses work better when the defense gets them the ball back quicker.

Well, it's a far better goal than going back to 2004-2007. To each their own though.....

GBR!!

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

Oh yeah, I loved the variations in the Nebraska play-calling and schemes.

A rapidly improving O-line makes a huge difference, i.e. when these plays don't work the OC is accused of getting too cute.

But passing is a part of this. Even the threat to pass. And while some folks freak out about Taylor's stats, his 8.0 yards per attempt is about right for an efficient and credible passing threat. And those occasional long bombs to our speedy young receivers? If you don't like these, you don't like football.

Here's what people forget about Tom Osborne and those 400 per game rushing teams. Those were fancy offenses. Much fancier and more difficult to execute than say, a West Coast offense, which some people mistakenly viewed as sophisticated passing offenses when they actually had more in common with playground ball. Osborne's option offenses required recruiting specialized players to play a specialized college game that may actually have hurt their chances at professional careers. And while a distressing number of fretful and nostalgiac Husker fans fear the forward pass and the risk of interception, the triple option is always a fumble waiting to happen. Nebraska and Oklahoma used to lose a wild pitch out a couple times a game (Oklahoma would lose five fumbles and still win) and the fans didn't scream "stop running the ball!"

When it worked, the power option was a thing of beauty. But you can't look back at the glory days, decide we need to get back to the running game and make it magically be 1995 again.

And when THIS offense works, as it did (finally) against Ohio State and Washington this year, and in big games like KState, Washington and Oklahoma State last year.....wow. That's fun football.

Also, offenses work better when the defense gets them the ball back quicker.

Well, it's a far better goal than going back to 2004-2007. To each their own though.....

GBR!!

Dude, I'm not going back to 2004 - 2007. I'm pretty cool with where we are right now. When we execute well. And the defense doesn't put us in a hole.

And since we're on a thread called Stats Don't Lie, you might want to face the fact that this IS a running team. Holy crap, we had two 1,000 yard rushers last season and are on a pace to do the same this season. When working as designed, this offense goes 250 yards rushing, 175 yards passing. Nothing wrong with that.

More facts? Here are the passing stats for the first six games of Nebraska's awesome 1995 National Championship offense. Look at all familiar?

Game 1: 12 of 20 1/INT

Game 2: 7 of 14 0/INT

Game 3: 12 of 20 1/INT

Game 4: 16 of 36 2/INT

Game 5: 9 of 20 0/INT

Game 6: 7 of 15 0/INT

These statistics clearly reveal one thing: I am really putting off getting my work done today.

 

[cchusker]

Actually this stat can lie, because a team that is winning is going to run the ball more. So it is possible that a team that is winning is the reason they get 200 yds, rather than winning because you get 200 yds.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

Yep. And teams that fall behind quickly are forced to pass more.

 

[sd'sker]

you got to wonder, what are other coaches winning records when you rush for 200 yards? i think this is not indicative of some fail-safe strategy, what it represents is that if you are winning, or the team that should win, you will rush for 200 yards. it is correlation, not causation.

 

[Scarlet Overkill]

I can't remember what the actual statistics were but during the game they show a stat that said if Martinez had one run of atleast 25yrds or something like that, we were like 10-0 in those games.

That was before the Wisconsin game. He had over 25 yards rushing in that but we still lost.

He meant 25 yards rushing in one play. I don't think he did that against Wisconsin.

Actually, for net rushing, it was true till that point that when TM had 25 yards or more net rushing, it was a 'W' every time. I didn't believe at first, but sure enough, it was true.

 

[Jason Sitoke]

These stats are worthless.

You win when you have a ton of rushing yards because you are owning the line of scrimmage and playing with a lead.

Thread might as well have the premise "we should try to have the best offensive line and always be ahead on the scoreboard. Then we'll win more"

From what I can tell, NU is 7-1 under Pelini when throwing for 300+ yards. Maybe we should throw it 50 times a game to get to that magic number.

 

[nhuskers5]

I saw this stat the other day to and loved it. It is very apparent, we have success with the run, we win. So many people want us to be like everyone else and throw the ball around the field, but thats not who we are. We should be running the ball 75% of the time with a few passes mixed. And, IMO, we shouldn't throw a pass further than 15 yards down field more twice a game. When we pass, we need to throw short little routes and let our playmaking-receivers and runningbacks turn them into 30 and 40 yard plays.

If we did that, what would stop the defense from teeing off on the run and short pass. You have to take more than a few shots downfield to keep them honest