Using Sagarin as the predictor

Scarlet Overkill

Scarlet Overkill

All-Conference
Because I was seriously bored, and kind of geeky.... I used Sagarin as a predictor of how each division would finish. (commentary below it)

Leaders

Team Conf Record non-div record

Wisconsin 8-0 3-0

Penn State 6-2 3-0

Ohio State 4-4 0-3

Illinois 4-4 2-1

Purdue 2-6 0-3

Indiana 0-8 0-3

Legends

Team Conf Record non-div record

Michigan St 7-1 2-1

Michigan 7-1 3-0

Nebraska 4-4 1-2

Iowa 4-4 2-1

Northw'tern 1-7 1-2

Minnesota 0-8 0-3

And that is why they play the games because the computer doesn't take into account anything other than some numbers.

Using the predictor, Michigan State is favored by less than a point, and Penn State is favored by about 2 points. I like the fact that MSU plays Wisconsin the week before us, and we're at home for that game as well.

 
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Got Carl? said:
3-3, but close enough margin to also be 5-1 the rest of the way. If either scenario holds true, we'll need some outside help to get to Indy.
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Which games does it having us lose the worst? I'm guessing Michigan worst, then Mich St, followed by Penn State.

 
Got Carl? said:
Big wins vs Iowa (13) , Minn (26), NW (19)

Fairly large loss vs Michigan (-9)

very close losses vs MSU (-0.4), PSU (-2).
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if we don't improve, that is probably generous. if we improve, we should definitely beat psu, probably michigan, and maybe michigan st.

 
Sagarin is also the first to say that his predictor column can vary widely earlier in the season, and the more games you have factored in, the more accurate it becomes.

 
Aye... more accurate now than two or three weeks in, but not as accurate as it is when you get to mid-November. But you're right GC, it should be getting to the point of decent accuracy. Just wanted to clarify that Sagarin also says the more data to input, the better the output with his predictors.

 
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