The ACC CCG loser, Nebraska, Boise, and K-State seem to all be in the mix for the last pick. If Houston loses, Stanford loses again, or Clemson loses to USC and in the CCG, things get really interesting if we're 10-2.
Boise went from #5 in the country to the Maaco Bowl Las Vegas with one loss last year. There's basically no way they get picked for a BCS game now, especially since TCU will be the conference champion.
K-State can't go to a BCS bowl if OK St. and OU are there already.
I knew Houston would probably finish undefeated but didn't think they would get picked (an undefeated Boise St. team played in the prestigous San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl in 2008). However, I forgot about the new rule that says a non-BCS conference champion in the Top 12 automatically gets to go (or Top 16 if they're ahead of a BCS conference champ - Cincinnati is currently leading the Big East and is #29 in the AP Poll).
So Houston will get in unless they lose. With Alabama all but a lock, that leaves two spots for the Pac-12, Big XII, B1G and ACC to fight over.
The loser of the OK St./Oklahoma game will be the best shot for the Big XII. If Okie St. loses, they're likely in. If OU loses (10-2) they would definitely get a look but I'm not sure they're a lock. Their best wins would be Texas and K St. (that Florida St. win doensn't look so great anymore) and they're minus thier second-best player. With a Heisman finalist still on board, they're probably in but you never know.
Stanford at 11-1 is the likely canidate from the Pac-12 but their best win came when an on-probation USC fumbled the game away in triple-overtime. Their next best win? Washington? And I'm not sure Stanford has the greatest following.
The ACC title game should be 11-1 Clemson vs. 11-1 Virginia Tech but Clemson still has to travel to South Carolina. The loser will obviously have two losses but it's possible Clemson could have three.
I don't like our chances nearly as much trying to get past two of those teams but one upset could make it pretty interesting.