My guess is they'll only expand for Notre Dame. It's anyone's guess who #14 would be if ND did join the B1G. For the sake of appeasing Notre Dame in such a scenario, I'd go after Boston College. It gives ND a fellow Catholic institution in the conference as well as an old rival. Plus BC and ND bring hockey teams which would mean an 8-team B1G Hockey league. Adding BC also gives BTN a footprint in the Boston TV market.
Good post. I agree it will depend on what ND does and when. BC would make a lot of sense for TV market expansion and for other sports. If the BIG does add schools, my guess is the divisions get expanded to east and west so It's not going to be that big of a deal to add someone like BC because it won't be that bad of a travel situation for schools like PSU, Michigan or OSU to have someone like BC in their division and the western division schools won't have to go but probably once every four years at most. If what I read online is correct, ND has it's current NBC contract until 2015 and are getting about $15 million a year for football. The BIG is already paying it's schools $22 million for TV contracts. If the BIG would add ND and another big market school like BC, they could get their next tv contract up in the $30 million range. I think our new agreement with the PAC12 would also be luring to ND since they have history with schools like USC and Standford. Unless the numbers I am reading online are wrong, I just don't get why ND would want to stay independent. It looks like they could make more being the the BIG.
Two things,
I don't think Bostonians keep up with BC as much as the school would like. I'm not sure how "loyalty" functions into TV contracts, and it may not but if I'm an ESPN exec looking at a conference based in the South or Midwest and another based in say...the Northeast, and they're both equal in on the field success I'm paying a lot more to the Southerners and Midwesterners than to the Northeasterners simply because I know more people will watch that first conference's games which means I get paid more for ads. From this fan's perspective I don't want BC in the conference. While I love the city of Boston and would enjoy road games they don't fit our culture one bit. Their fans won't travel and their stadium would be the smallest in the conference.
Also, on the Pac 12 thing, while ND does have rivalries with Stanford and USC it also has three strong ones with Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue. (very bitter in Indiana) Also, and this is purely based on a wiki
article they have a fair amount of history with Northwestern, Nebraska and Penn State.
Six good reasons to join our conference.