4.5 point favorites over UCLA

I am I said:
I posted a thread after the game saying Not too high Not too low that got zero posts.

Now I know why.

5.5 favs? Seems low. But all you people expecting a 21 pt+ blowout after 4 yrs of riding the ups and downs of Pelini squads leave me shaking my head.

If we are even close to last weeks performance, I'm happy: 7 tds, 2 penalties, zero TOs? I'll be happy as hell if we replicate, trust me.

But you all thinking that's now the new normal are too high on the hog. and if we win by a very slim margin, or God forbid lose??

You'll be the first claim we are the worst cleats to touch turf in 65 yrs.

My (fake) money says: bet on the huskets to cover, but quit w the "insulting" talk of only being slight favs on the road after a near perfect performance against an obviously lesser foe.
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You're putting words into people's mouths. Thinking we'll beat a crappy UCLA team by 21 doesn't mean people think it's the new norm because of one game. It only means they think we'll beat a crappy UCLA team by 21. Here are a few reasons why I think we'll win by 17+:

1. It's the first away game so the team will be excited for that.

2. It's a... not sure how to say this, so I'll say "big name program." even though that's not quite right. But whatever you want to call UCLA, it's not the type of team Nebraska has overlooked in the past. They'll be excited to prove themselves and play a team from a BCS conference that has some history.

3. UCLA was very unimpressive against one of the worst teams in the country, and they were bad last tear as well.

 
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Moiraine said:
I am I said:
I posted a thread after the game saying Not too high Not too low that got zero posts.

Now I know why.

5.5 favs? Seems low. But all you people expecting a 21 pt+ blowout after 4 yrs of riding the ups and downs of Pelini squads leave me shaking my head.

If we are even close to last weeks performance, I'm happy: 7 tds, 2 penalties, zero TOs? I'll be happy as hell if we replicate, trust me.

But you all thinking that's now the new normal are too high on the hog. and if we win by a very slim margin, or God forbid lose??

You'll be the first claim we are the worst cleats to touch turf in 65 yrs.

My (fake) money says: bet on the huskets to cover, but quit w the "insulting" talk of only being slight favs on the road after a near perfect performance against an obviously lesser foe.
Click to expand...
You're putting words into people's mouths. Thinking we'll beat a crappy UCLA team by 21 doesn't mean people think it's the new norm because of one game. It only means they think we'll beat a crappy UCLA team by 21. Here are a few reasons why I think we'll win by 17+:

1. It's the first away game so the team will be excited for that.

2. It's a... not sure how to say this, so I'll say "big name program." even though that's not quite right. But whatever you want to call UCLA, it's not the type of team Nebraska has overlooked in the past. They'll be excited to prove themselves and play a team from a BCS conference that has some history.

3. UCLA was very unimpressive against one of the worst teams in the country, and they were bad last tear as well.
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Exactly.

There's simply no proof that UCLA is any kind of real force. We play reasonably well we should win. Our WRs continue to catch the ball, we'll win easily. That's all.

 
I keep trying to make myself think we should worry about this game, but I can't. Honestly would be shocked if we don't win and dont win by at least 10

 
Under Bo Pelini, Nebraska has played 19 true road games. We've won 12 and lost 7. (68% win percentage)

Here are the 7 we lost:

2008 At Texas Tech (they finished 11-2)

2008 At Oklahoma (they finished 12-2)

2009 At Virginia Tech (they finished 10-3)

2010 At Texas A&M (they finished 9-4) this one was a robbery.

2010 At Oklahoma (they finished 12-2)

2011 At Wisconsin (they finished 11-3)

2011 At Michigan (they finished 11-2)

Other than the A&M game which was a screwjob by a corrupt conference, every team Nebraska has lost to on the road under Pelini won at least 10 games and 4 of the 6 played in a BCS bowl game. (and both Texas Tech and Virgina Tech easily could have).

We struggle at times against overmatched teams at home but we don't lose to any team that isn't a 10 win BCS Bowl level team on the road. UCLA isn't anywhere close to a 10 win BCS Bowl quality team.

 
Blackshirt316 said:
Under Bo Pelini, Nebraska has played 19 true road games. We've won 12 and lost 7. (68% win percentage)

Here are the 7 we lost:

2008 At Texas Tech (they finished 11-2)

2008 At Oklahoma (they finished 12-2)

2009 At Virginia Tech (they finished 10-3)

2010 At Texas A&M (they finished 9-4) this one was a robbery.

2010 At Oklahoma (they finished 12-2)

2011 At Wisconsin (they finished 11-3)

2011 At Michigan (they finished 11-2)

Other than the A&M game which was a screwjob by a corrupt conference, every team Nebraska has lost to on the road under Pelini won at least 10 games and 4 of the 6 played in a BCS bowl game. (and both Texas Tech and Virgina Tech easily could have).

We struggle at times against overmatched teams at home but we don't lose to any team that isn't a 10 win BCS Bowl level team on the road. UCLA isn't anywhere close to a 10 win BCS Bowl quality team.
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Interesting info. I didn't realize our losses were quite that "good".

 
If i'm Mora, I would not be the least bit happy what I saw out of the Huskers this weekend.

4.5 points, that won't stay the same. I'd have to think, it'd be about 6.5 come game time, maybe more.

 
The line should be 10 12 in my opinion and that would make it tougher to bet us. I taped the UCLA game and watched it. Their RB might gash us a little, but Hundley is slow, he will get his yards but he wont blow us up like Braxton or Robinson could.

I will bet this but in a Parlay to make it worth my while. Risking 100 to win 38 isnt worth it to me. Find 3 or 4 high percentage win lines like our game and you got yourself a good payday if their are no upsets. The hard part is finding more then 2 sure wins like our game to really cash in.

We might just have to accept that teams with a good running QB are going to get their yards. Kind of like in the NFL when going against an elite RB, hes going to get his 100 yard games, you just have to try to contain and limit his plays the best you can. People need to stop dreaming of COMPLETELY stopping a mobile QB, especially a good true dual threat. There is a reason the whole football world is turning to the mobile QB. In 4 or 5 years dual threat QBs will out number the true pocket passers in the NFL. Cam Newton, RGIII, Russel Wilson even Luck is just the start. Just look around at all the college teams with dual threats. They are going to get their yards, at the end of the day its limiting how many points they score by holding them to field goals when the field gets shorter and it gets easier to contain them in a tighter space, or forcing them into 3rd and long and making guys like Robinson throw, and you do that by stuffing the run on 1st down, you do that once a drive, force them into a pass situation and get them off the field.

Our offense will finally put pressure on their offense and force them to play keep up or catch up and force them to throw into the strength of our defense...the secondary.

UCLA will have to score over 50 to beat us, and they are not that explosive. 55-24 with a late score or 2 on our backups.

 
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walksalone said:
If i'm Mora, I would not be the least bit happy what I saw out of the Huskers this weekend.

4.5 points, that won't stay the same. I'd have to think, it'd be about 6.5 come game time, maybe more.
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Neither would I. I really hope the team can have a very physical day against the Bruins. I would love nothing more than our boys to take UCLA's heart and will away from them, and I hope the whole team is feeling similar.

 
HuskerLuke said:
With respect to UCLA, I just don't think they're there yet. Obviously an upset isn't inconceivable...the smart money says Burkhead doesn't make the trip, so if 2010-2011 TMart shows up instead of what we saw Saturday, UCLA's got a shot....That said look at Bo's record taking this team into hostile environments against teams that we should beat on paper. By my count, he's 11-0, and most of those were fairly lopsided.

If I had to pick a score at this point, I'd say 48-21 Nebraska, so obviously I'd take that line if I were a betting man.
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Two thoughts:

The Rosebowl won't exactly be a "hostile environment" more of a neutral site.

Having said that, Didn't UCLA go into Austin and destroy the Lonhorns basically running right up their cow sphincters? yes, and J. Franklin did most of the running.....some things to think about

 
IvabigN said:
HuskerLuke said:
With respect to UCLA, I just don't think they're there yet. Obviously an upset isn't inconceivable...the smart money says Burkhead doesn't make the trip, so if 2010-2011 TMart shows up instead of what we saw Saturday, UCLA's got a shot....That said look at Bo's record taking this team into hostile environments against teams that we should beat on paper. By my count, he's 11-0, and most of those were fairly lopsided.

If I had to pick a score at this point, I'd say 48-21 Nebraska, so obviously I'd take that line if I were a betting man.
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Two thoughts:

The Rosebowl won't exactly be a "hostile environment" more of a neutral site.

Having said that, Didn't UCLA go into Austin and destroy the Lonhorns basically running right up their cow sphincters? yes, and J. Franklin did most of the running.....some things to think about
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Yes, whole bunch of empty seats. I hope Husker fans will fill in empty seats.

 
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Okay, I'm back. 57 posts in 16 hours, wow.

Still can't find an over / under.

UCLA had 646 yards of offense in their first game...I don't care who they played, they haven't had that kind of production in the last decade except once in 2005. They also had 7 sacks. Southern Miss didn't get much pressure on your QB....which I am sure had a lot to do with his improved mechanics. A little heat might change things. They also had 107 yards in penalties, which is about their (unacceptable) norm.

One thing I saw when I was looking for the O/U was that Nebraska is 1 - 3 - 1 against a spread offense, which is where the 4.5 points comes from.

 
UCLA showed they can run the ball very well. Nebraska struggles against the run. Our defensive line looks pretty soft.. Thus, the four and a half point spread. UCLA's defense looks a lot softer than ours though. I thought the spread would be quite a bit more. I bet we steamroll them by at least seventeen.

 
Even though I think our defense is soft (mostly the d-line and linebackers), I think the combination of Nebraska's offense and being able to stop UCLA a few times on defense will allow Nebraska to cover the spread.

 
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