4.5 point favorites over UCLA

[Guy Chamberlin]

Anything can happen on any given Saturday.

But Southern Miss is a better team than UCLA.

I'm going to the game. Someone tell me where the parties are.

 

[NUance]

Week one, UCLA rushed from 348 yards. Nebraska passed for 354 yds. Something is wrong with that picture.

 

[Enhance]

Okay, I'm back. 57 posts in 16 hours, wow.

Yeah, we have a problem.

Still can't find an over / under.UCLA had 646 yards of offense in their first game...I don't care who they played, they haven't had that kind of production in the last decade except once in 2005. They also had 7 sacks. Southern Miss didn't get much pressure on your QB....which I am sure had a lot to do with his improved mechanics. A little heat might change things. They also had 107 yards in penalties, which is about their (unacceptable) norm.

One thing I saw when I was looking for the O/U was that Nebraska is 1 - 3 - 1 against a spread offense, which is where the 4.5 points comes from.

I wouldn't put much into the heat thing. If you've never been to Nebraska, we have extremely hot/humid summers and (normally) frigid cold and bitter winters. We have extremely diverse climate here, and the players spent most of fall camp practicing in 95 degree plus weather. Our first home game was around 95 I think.

It should be a fun game to watch. I think one of the important things UCLA has to do this weekend is put together sustained drives. IIRC someone said they had three touchdowns plays of 70+ yards. Nebraska is no Alabama, but UCLA isn't going to do well if they rely on the big play to score points. If they can burn clock and not settle for field goals on long drives, it will be an interesting game.

 

[DTrain2020]

UCLA's defense really isn't any better than USM's defense. But seeing how they are UCLA, we won't have a score better than 45, but i can see mid 30's to close to 40 points by the end of the game a possibility if we repeat the same kind of offensive production.

Defensively, its a toss up. UCLA runs the QB quite a bit, which we struggle with. I don't see too many balls thrown into the air, they will hit us with the running game early, and if we struggle to shut it down early, its gonna be a long game until the defense finally shuts them down or restricts them to field goals.

Special teams should have a better game. I don't see Maher having a repeat terrible day, nor do i see repeat poor coverage on kickoffs and punts.

Final score - Neb 38 (T. Mart 2 pass TD 1 rush TD. A. Abdullah 1 rush TD. Maher 3 - 3 FG.)

UCLA - 13 ( 1 rush TD and 2 FG)

If the defense shows up, which i think it will. UCLA's offense shouldn't score more than 15 points in this game. If they don't show up and have a bad performance, I expect 20 - 25 points from UCLA. But still our offense will have the capability to rescue the defense.

I am trying to figure out how 4X7 + 3X3 = 38. 😲 did Bo grow a pair and go for 2 somewhere??

 

[DTrain2020]

Okay, I'm back. 57 posts in 16 hours, wow.

Yeah, we have a problem.

Still can't find an over / under.UCLA had 646 yards of offense in their first game...I don't care who they played, they haven't had that kind of production in the last decade except once in 2005. They also had 7 sacks. Southern Miss didn't get much pressure on your QB....which I am sure had a lot to do with his improved mechanics. A little heat might change things. They also had 107 yards in penalties, which is about their (unacceptable) norm.

One thing I saw when I was looking for the O/U was that Nebraska is 1 - 3 - 1 against a spread offense, which is where the 4.5 points comes from.

I wouldn't put much into the heat thing. If you've never been to Nebraska, we have extremely hot/humid summers and (normally) frigid cold and bitter winters. We have extremely diverse climate here, and the players spent most of fall camp practicing in 95 degree plus weather. Our first home game was around 95 I think.

It should be a fun game to watch. I think one of the important things UCLA has to do this weekend is put together sustained drives. IIRC someone said they had three touchdowns plays of 70+ yards. Nebraska is no Alabama, but UCLA isn't going to do well if they rely on the big play to score points. If they can burn clock and not settle for field goals on long drives, it will be an interesting game.

I seriously can't tell if the weather comment is sarcasm? Damn internets

 

[NUance]

Still can't find an over / under.UCLA had 646 yards of offense in their first game...I don't care who they played, they haven't had that kind of production in the last decade except once in 2005. They also had 7 sacks. Southern Miss didn't get much pressure on your QB....which I am sure had a lot to do with his improved mechanics. A little heat might change things.

I wouldn't put much into the heat thing. If you've never been to Nebraska, we have extremely hot/humid summers and (normally) frigid cold and bitter winters. We have extremely diverse climate here, and the players spent most of fall camp practicing in 95 degree plus weather. Our first home game was around 95 I think.

Not sure if you're being sarcastic in your response above. Heat = pressure, I believe is what he meant. I could be wrong--although T-Mart is from South'n Cal originally.

 

[Enhance]

Fixed.

 

[Flood]

UCLA ran the ball well. Against RICE. Come on, not exactly hard to imagine our guys breaking RICE down either.

UCLA really didn't look good in every way. Sure they broke some big plays, but it looked like the difference was entirely on Rice. I suspect UCLA gets killed by USM.

And the venue? I suspect we may see nearly as many Husker fans in attendance. Checking out some of the west coast Husker clubs, it looks like every Husker west of Colorado has bought tickets. And then, everyone from Omaha/Lincoln and the rest of Nebraska, who travel to all away games . . . I think the crowd will be very friendly indeed.

Trying not to be silly about this. I don't want us to overlook any team, ever, but this shouldn't be close. Not necessarily because NU are championship material after one game, but because UCLA is never championship material, and I don't think a big win over an overmatched Rice team changes that.

 

[benedictbruin]

Yes, heat = pressure.

 

[NUpolo8]

With respect to UCLA, I just don't think they're there yet. Obviously an upset isn't inconceivable...the smart money says Burkhead doesn't make the trip, so if 2010-2011 TMart shows up instead of what we saw Saturday, UCLA's got a shot....That said look at Bo's record taking this team into hostile environments against teams that we should beat on paper. By my count, he's 11-0, and most of those were fairly lopsided.

If I had to pick a score at this point, I'd say 48-21 Nebraska, so obviously I'd take that line if I were a betting man.

Two thoughts:

The Rosebowl won't exactly be a "hostile environment" more of a neutral site.

Having said that, Didn't UCLA go into Austin and destroy the Lonhorns basically running right up their cow sphincters? yes, and J. Franklin did most of the running.....some things to think about

UCLA has an odd hex over Texas. In 98 I remember they absolutely bayoneted a Texas team that had Ricky Williams on the roster. Granted UCLA was pretty damn good that year, but still.

 

[tschu]

To everyone who thinks the line is totally wrong and insulting and should be 14 points or whatever: Wow! You just found a massive 9-point edge against the vegas odds! Bet the house on it!

5 points (effectively 8 at a neutral site and 11 if the game was in Lincoln) seems fine.

 

[brophog]

I didn't see anyone comment on them, but if someone didn't realize, those drive stats I listed earlier were UCLA's against Rice. The normal drive stats for a team that produced 650 yards of offense would be similar to the ones Nebraska posted. For a team to post drive stats like UCLA did and gain that many yards is almost impossible. A team would have to go the length of the field on practically every drive. Due to the new kickoff rule, that's pretty much what happened. They started 9 of them inside their own 30. They had 4 scoring drives that took less than 5 plays. They had 5 drives that ended on a punt or turnover that took less than 5 plays (plus another turnover on special teams). UCLA had a whopping 9 drives that took less than 2 minutes, either due to quick scores or due to having to surrender the ball quickly.

On the one hand, you could say they ran the ball great because of all of those big runs. That helped generate a 9.3 ypc average. On the other hand, some of those long runs were the product of busted plays. UCLA would send one man across the formation to the strong side in motion, Rice would overreact to it, and UCLA would run what would otherwise be a rather harmless dive play and turn it into a 70 yard gain. UCLA started the first half with 3 immediate touchdowns, but started the second half with their first 3 drives all ending in punts, taking only 15 plays and generating 37 total yards. During the period following the third quick TD to start the game (8:28 remaining in the first quarter) to the 1 minute mark left in the 3rd quarter, UCLA's offense scored a TD and a FG, but had 5 punts and an interception. UCLA's first 4 offensive TDs averaged less than 2 plays each!

If someone didn't see that UCLA-Rice game, it was exceedingly strange.

 

[NoLongerN]

For me this needs to be 60-14 kind of score to make a recruiting statement ... and I think we will.

 

[FLU]

I think the general consensus is that Nebraska does not fare well against teams with mobile QBs.

 

[The Dude]

I don't gamble, but this seems like awfully easy money.

Betting the farm.