Jump to content
Mavric

Chance to Make NFL Roster by Star Rating

Recommended Posts

Good numbers, thanks for sharing. This is also illustrates the huge difference in 3-star players. Which makes sense considering some of the higher 3-stars can still be in the top 350 of all players in the nation, while the lower end of 3-stars are in the 1000-1500 range.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

Interesting that unranked players had a better chance of reaching the NFL than those ranked <85

 

Yeah, I noticed that as well.  I don't think that number is probably accurate - or at least misleading.  I'm sure it has to be "unranked but have a profile created on 247" which would obviously only be a small percentage of the players that are actually unranked.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Mavric said:

 

Yeah, I noticed that as well.  I don't think that number is probably accurate - or at least misleading.  I'm sure it has to be "unranked but have a profile created on 247" which would obviously only be a small percentage of the players that are actually unranked.

Looks like it's unranked but got a schollie in college based on this further down in the twitter thread:

 

  • Plus1 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Red Five said:

In pie chart form

 

 

 

My constant complaint about this type of graph:

 

Yes, it's true.  But all that is saying is "Look at how great our recruiting services are!!!  We can tell that Trevor Lawrence is going to be a better prospect than some benchwarmer from Arthur, Nebraska!!!! Aren't we great?!?!??!?!?!"

 

Yes, obviously the five- and four-star guys are going to be the better players.  But it doesn't take a genius to be able to tell that an all-state guy from California, Georgia, Texas or Florida has a much better chance to be a college/NFL player than 99% of other players out there.

 

The real question is how well they did compared to some expected value.  The trick is figuring out what that expected value should be.  For example, "60% of five-star recruits should be NFL draft picks."  Even that seems low to me but I think that's even a bit higher than actual over the last several years.  Then you work down the list: "30% of four-star players should be drafted in the NFL", "1% of three-star players should be drafted in the NFL", "0.001% of other players will be NFL draft picks" or whatever those numbers are.  That's what you should look at to determine if the scouting services are doing a good job or not.  But of course they like to point out the gross numbers because it's basically impossible to be wrong when looking at it that way.

  • Plus1 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×