Chance to Make NFL Roster by Star Rating

This is the first time I've seen a recruiting-industry person admit this.

They almost always like to say "but there are so many more three-stars, of course there are more three-stars drafted."  Which is, of course, true.

But the part they usually ignore is the five-stars are supposed to be the can't-miss guys.  Best of the best.  There are usually 30-35 five-stars in each class.  Which means there should be about the same number eligible for the draft each year.  

If you got people to look at the five-stars in each recruiting class and say they have about a 50/50 chance of being a bust, no one would believe you.  But it's the truth.

And the four-stars being only about a 25% chance of really panning out is interesting as well.  Although there are more four-stars than draft picks so that's not quite as telling.


 
There are 30-35 five-stars per class.  Even if the average NFL career is only 3-4 years (though you would expect the five-stars to have longer careers), there should be 100-125 five-stars in that window all the time.  

But apparently only 20 are among the Top 100 players according to this ranking.


 
Eh, there is too much variance with injuries to gauge evaluation at the high school level to deep into their NFL careers. I would love to see the same statistics for players draft round to the top 100 and see how bad those look. At that point you eliminated most of the unknowns, have men who are generally trending toward their peak physical performance, and most of the unknowns who were missed on some level out performed even at smaller schools. 

I would love to see the numbers on recruiting stars versus power 4/5 all conference team numbers. All-American seems to be to flighty to be well worth it (WR heavy class like last year where only so many could be and years where you haven't had top level LB's but multiple ones are selected to each level).

 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top