Jump to content


2024 Husker Football Schedule


Mavric

Recommended Posts

12 hours ago, brophog said:

I gotta see whatever model produces 11 wins for a team that couldn't outscore their opponents last year with one of the best scoring defenses in football. 11 wins against 5 bowl teams, per this model. That defense better not miss a beat and that offense better take an enormous leap.

 

I mean they were the 2nd worse scoring offense last year and got to 10 wins. They really need an enormous leap to get one more? The schedule is not difficult in the slightest, OSU is an L but as much as I hate to say it they can win the rest of them.

  • TBH 2
Link to comment

1 hour ago, Husker in WI said:

 

I mean they were the 2nd worse scoring offense last year and got to 10 wins. They really need an enormous leap to get one more? The schedule is not difficult in the slightest, OSU is an L but as much as I hate to say it they can win the rest of them.

That's the thing, it wouldn't take an enormous leap on offense at all.  If the model thinks they can even be top 80 on offense, (although you can argue going from 120 something to top 80 might actually be an enormous leap relatively), and the defense is just as good, they can totally win 11.  People here love to bag on Iowa, but none really seem to actually pay much attention to Iowa. :lol:  Not that I blame anyone for that, they are boring as sh!+!

 

Personally I think the defense will take a step back, and while the offense will be better, it won't be that much better.  I am thinking 7-8 wins is the sweet spot for Iowa this year, same as for Nebraska. 

  • Plus1 1
Link to comment
1 hour ago, Husker in WI said:

I mean they were the 2nd worse scoring offense last year and got to 10 wins. They really need an enormous leap to get one more?

 

Yes, they would likely need an enormous leap to get 11 wins.

 

When you look at points scored and points allowed, they were a 7 win team last year, not a 10 win team. This is why Vegas has them at 7.5, despite that cupcake schedule. Whenever you see a team like Iowa that won 10 games last year, has an easy schedule this year, returns a lot of top players and Vegas just seems off their rocker with a line 3 games off that expectation, ask yourself why that it is.

 

I'm not saying the bookmakers are right or that Iowa cant win 10+ games, but they don't set lines that far off public perception without a damn good reason.

 

22 minutes ago, runningblind said:

If the model thinks they can even be top 80 on offense, (although you can argue going from 120 something to top 80 might actually be an enormous leap relatively), and the defense is just as good, they can totally win 11

 

They were 130th last year in scoring. Improving to 80th would be about 9 points per game more for a 57% improvement.

 

Assuming that and the defense gives up the same paltry sum of a year ago, it's an estimated 10 wins making that 50 rank jump. If the defense even gave up a couple more points per game, it drops to about 9 wins.

 

To get to an estimated 11 wins, Iowa at it's current defensive scoring rate they would need about 28.5 ppg of offensive scoring. If their scoring defense gave up a couple more points per game, that number shoots up to 31+.

 

For Iowa to get to 11 wins, using an approximation technique like pythagorean win expectation, Iowa has to come close to doubling its scoring. That's not impossible, even Ferentz has seasons of more than 30 points, but where does the offensive improvement come from?

 

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
On 7/3/2024 at 10:15 AM, brophog said:

 

Yes, they would likely need an enormous leap to get 11 wins.

 

When you look at points scored and points allowed, they were a 7 win team last year, not a 10 win team. This is why Vegas has them at 7.5, despite that cupcake schedule. Whenever you see a team like Iowa that won 10 games last year, has an easy schedule this year, returns a lot of top players and Vegas just seems off their rocker with a line 3 games off that expectation, ask yourself why that it is.

 

I'm not saying the bookmakers are right or that Iowa cant win 10+ games, but they don't set lines that far off public perception without a damn good reason.

 

 

They were 130th last year in scoring. Improving to 80th would be about 9 points per game more for a 57% improvement.

 

Assuming that and the defense gives up the same paltry sum of a year ago, it's an estimated 10 wins making that 50 rank jump. If the defense even gave up a couple more points per game, it drops to about 9 wins.

 

To get to an estimated 11 wins, Iowa at it's current defensive scoring rate they would need about 28.5 ppg of offensive scoring. If their scoring defense gave up a couple more points per game, that number shoots up to 31+.

 

For Iowa to get to 11 wins, using an approximation technique like pythagorean win expectation, Iowa has to come close to doubling its scoring. That's not impossible, even Ferentz has seasons of more than 30 points, but where does the offensive improvement come from?

 

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/28

 

They gave up less than 15 ppg last year, so saying they need close to 30 to win 11 games is silly.  They simply need to score more than the opponent, which they have shown for a decade they are good at doing.   Games are played on the field and not in probabilities as we all know. 

 

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/27/p3

 

They scored 15.4 ppg, 129th in the country.  If they even improved to 100th, that would be 22-23 points per game which would be plenty in nearly every game with that defense, which is what the model is going off of.

 

Do I think they win 11?  Of course not, but I wouldn't be shocked either. 

  • TBH 1
Link to comment

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...