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So NU SHould Have Went Back to the Big 12?


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Kornheiser said something on PTI today that makes sense to me.  The NCAA will be shown the door and schools will do their own thing.  You'll see one conference with a North/South/West/East divisions and the top money producing schools will be the only ones included.  Schools like KSU, Oregon State, Vanderbilt, etc. will be on the outside looking in.  

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This may have already been decided- however both Texas and OU will have to pay the BIG12 about $76 million each in exit fees. The league is owed 2 years of distributions if anyone leaves. Last year the BIG12 gave out $38 million- so $76 million it is.

 

The projected payouts for SEC teams is about $50 million next year with the updated contracts. The BIG12 gets a new deal in 2025. So the payback on the move in todays dollars is about  4 years. When the new media deal come through in 2025- the delta gets smaller and payback gets longer. At the end of the day- the numbers do work. 

 

 

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Just pondering scenarios here... Say the rumor that the Big Ten it thinking about taking the top teams of the Pac ends up playing out. It would be a geographically huge conference, but just for discussion. If expanding the markets for BTN is a major goal, obviously it would be a big win. Hard to say exactly how things will play out long-term with streaming, though - geography is less important with that.

 

And could we see the remains of the Big 12 merge with the remains of the Pac? They'd have a lot of reasonably good football teams, but they would lack a true top tier blue blood program. How would you describe such a conference? It feels like they would sit in between P5 and G5 as we think of them today.

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The other side to all of this is that as much as anything, conference realignment is about the turf war between ESPN and Fox Sports. Historically, ESPN has had the upper hand due to being the older and more established brand, but Fox Sports was the first to move on a conference network. Fox has strong ties to the Big Ten, and ESPN has strong ties to the SEC. The ACC's network is through ESPN, but they're apparently locked into a bad long-term deal with that. The Pac tried to build their own network, and it sounds like uptake has been fairly weak. And of course the Big 12's network is... The Longhorn Network, lol.

 

Out of those Flugaur tweets, the rumor of seeking a new media partner like NBC or Amazon is definitely interesting. Streaming is obviously huge these days, but one of the biggest weaknesses of Netflix and such is the lack of live sports. I'd love to be able to stream all the Husker games with my Amazon Prime subscription! But of course, Flugaur might just be some weirdo looking for more Twitter followers...

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9 hours ago, B.B. Hemingway said:

 

As we know, this is a football discussion. Kansas has the worst power 5 football program, currently. I wouldn't hate adding Kansas, but the other addition better bring the heat on the football field (Notre Dame, USC, Clemson, for example).

Seems like a conference realignment discussion not just a football discussion.  Getting the Kansas basketball property would justify bringing a s#!tty football program into the mix.  

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Yeah, I'm hearing that Oklahoma to the SEC is done. It's just a question of whether or not Texas A&M will block Texass. Considering A&M leaked the info and started this whole frenzy, something tells me A&M won't let it happen. 

 

That means the only viable Big XII target for the B1G, Kansas, will likely be next in line. And remember the SEC has been working on improving its basketball cache--adding Kansas would launch said cache into overdrive. 

 

Adding Pac-12 schools only make sense if it's something like, say, Colorado. I could see Colorado (population, footprint) as a viable B1G expansion target. Anything other than that really is a stretch. 

 

IF Texas does go to the SEC...then adding Kansas and Colorado would look rather attractive. Both have major market areas (Denver, St. Louis/KC), Kansas has its basketball cache, and Colorado has...the Rocky Mountains. Oh, and Hockey. Hockey helps too. I guess. 

 

  

8 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

Seems like a conference realignment discussion not just a football discussion.  Getting the Kansas basketball property would justify bringing a s#!tty football program into the mix.  

 

Yup. Been saying this for years. The next front on the conference expansion wars will be men's basketball, and Kansas brings more money in than many of the supposedly sought-after football programs. 

 

And remember--Kansas was part of that original five team push to expand the B1G to 16 teams. They've already been 'vetted' by the B1G. 

 

  

40 minutes ago, Nebraska55fan said:

This may have already been decided- however both Texas and OU will have to pay the BIG12 about $76 million each in exit fees. The league is owed 2 years of distributions if anyone leaves. Last year the BIG12 gave out $38 million- so $76 million it is.

 

 

 

That's a good chuck of change for a conference to throw around at second-tier schools to shore up the conference. Houston, Colorado State, and a few others close by wouldn't balk at that money, or the potential windfall of a Big XII network, even if it's a fifth-place payout. 

 

  

14 hours ago, Scratchtown said:

You guys are nuts to think they won’t get invited. The benefit for the conference supersedes any sour grapes from TAMU

 

Except that A&M has the right to block any invites from a state they belong to. Otherwise we would have seen Florida State and/or Miami be extended an invite in 2010. 

 

And adding Oklahoma doesn't do *ANYTHING* to change this. Either the SEC changes their bylaws, or they make significant concessions to A&M to allow Texass to join. 

 

 

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Scenario: Oklahoma gets in but Texas gets blocked by A&M. Texas waits for Oklahoma to have voting rights, and then has the extra vote they need to get in.

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7 minutes ago, Toe said:

Scenario: Oklahoma gets in but Texas gets blocked by A&M. Texas waits for Oklahoma to have voting rights, and then has the extra vote they need to get in.

 

That...wouldn't fix the in-state veto A&M has. Unless they can rewrite bylaws with that extra vote. 

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Put the ACC out of your mind. Not sure anyone can pay the exit fee required to leave which is 3 times the payout- which would be about $100 million. That would be about an 8-10 year payback based on the delta increase. 

 

PAC 10 could work, but are we really going to have a "conference" that goes from Maryland/NY to Washington- bi-coastal? What a travel nightmare.  If that does happen some pretty descent teams are going to be left in the cold. 

 

Teams that have combination of success and fan base with places to land- USC, Oregon, Washington, Stanford

 

Teams in the middle- Arizona State, UCLA, Utah, Colorado

 

Teams left out roadkill- Oregon State, Washington State, Arizona, California

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Just now, Toe said:

@VectorVictor Got a source for that 'in-state veto'? I hadn't heard anything about that. From what I heard, it was just a 3/4 majority or something needed.

 

It's the reason that Miami, Florida State, or Clemson weren't added in the 2010 shuffle. The SEC defers to the school they already have in-state for approval. 

 

Also, if the SEC does end around this, A&M could bolt for greener pastures. The SEC doesn't have a GOR, so A&M can leave at any time. While landing Texass would be great, losing A&M to do it doesn't seem like a long-term plan for success. Especially if the SEC is still wanting to keep recruiting South Texas. 

 

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5 minutes ago, VectorVictor said:

 

 

Also, if the SEC does end around this, A&M could bolt for greener pastures. The SEC doesn't have a GOR, so A&M can leave at any time. While landing Texass would be great, losing A&M to do it doesn't seem like a long-term plan for success. Especially if the SEC is still wanting to keep recruiting South Texas. 

 

 

A&M is NOT ever going to leave the SEC. Yes we HATE Texas, Im a former student (the Aggie secret code for alumni) but we are not leaving. Joining the SEC gave the Aggies a leg up in recruiting the state. Lots of ego there- kids want to play in the best of the best conference. In Texas they look down on the BIG and northern football and yes even a good part of the ACC> Going all the way to the east or west coast to play- that isn't happening. 

 

Yes if Texas gets admitted to the SEC there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth, people may put on a sack cloth and roll around in ash- but at the end of the day the Aggies will still be in the SEC. The Aggie boards do not share your enthusiasm for the veto power thing and trust me- they are desperately looking at any straw that would keep the teasipping longwhores out of the SEC. 

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