It'sNotAFakeID
All-American
If you're undefeated, you deserve to be at the top. End of story. So for the time being, Mississippi State, Florida State, and Ole Miss are the 3 best teams in college football; if the playoffs started today, they'd be in. Fortunately for all the 1 loss teams, Miss St and Ole Miss still have to play each other and both have a couple of tough contests still to come. Unfortunately, it appears Florida State has sealed a playoff spot as they won't face a tough test the rest of the way.
There are 14 Power 5 teams with 1 loss: Auburn, Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Georgia, TCU, Kansas State, Baylor, Ohio State, Arizona, Arizona State, Nebraska, and Utah.
Auburn currently sits at 5-1 (2-1). They're remaining games are:
vs South Carolina--W
@ Ole Miss--W
vs Texas A&M--W
@ Georgia--L
vs Samford--W
@ Alabama--L
Final record: 9-3 (5-3)
It's going to take quite an effort for Auburn to win 2 of those road contests. And I think the committee will be hard pressed to place a 3 loss team in the playoffs.
Alabama currently sits at 6-1 (3-1). They still have to play:
@ Tennessee--W
@ LSU--W
vs Mississippi State--W
vs Western Carolina--W
vs Auburn--W
Final record: 11-1 (7-1)
LSU and Mississippi State are toss-up games, but I think 'Bama will win out. A slip-up against LSU will make things very interesting. In this scenario, 'Bama has a shot at the playoffs.
Oregon currently sits at 6-1 (3-1). They have to play:
@ California--W
vs Stanford--W
@ Utah--L
vs Colorado--W
vs Oregon State--W
Final Record: 10-2 (7-2). A loss for Oregon would be a death-knell for their playoff chances. I don't see them winning all 3 out of Cal, Stanford, and Utah.
Notre Dame currently sits at 6-1. They still have to face:
@ Navy--W
@ Arizona State--W
vs Northwestern--W
vs Louisville--W
@ USC--L
Final Record: 10-2. Much like Oregon, another loss sends them out of the playoffs. Traveling to Arizona State and USC will be tough, and I don't see them winning both of those games.
Michigan State currently sits at 6-1 (3-0). They still have to play:
vs Michigan--W
vs Ohio State--W
@ Maryland--W
vs Rutgers--W
@ Penn State--W
Final Record: 11-1 (8-0). I think MSU gets up for the big game, and will shut down Ohio State. 11-1 would be enough to place them in the playoffs.
Georgia currently sits at 6-1 (4-1): They have to play:
Florida--W
@ Kentucky--W
vs Auburn--W
vs Charleston Southern--W
vs. Georgia Tech--W
Final Record: 11-1 (7-1). Aside from Auburn, Georgia's remaining schedule is a joke. 11-1 gives them a shot at the playoffs.
TCU currently sits at 5-1 (2-1). They still have to play:
vs Texas Tech--W
@ West Virginia--L
vs Kansas State--W
@ Kansas--W
@ Texas--W
vs Iowa State--W
Final Record: 10-2 (7-2). Unfortunately 2 losses would mean TCU is out. They'll drop one against WVU or KSU.
Kansas State currently sits at 5-1 (3-0). They still have to play:
vs Texas--W
vs Oklahoma State--W
@ TCU--L
@ West Virginia--W
vs Kansas--W
@ Baylor--L
Final Record: 9-3 (7-2) Those road games at TCU, West Virginia, and Baylor are going to be incredibly tough for KSU. 3 losses is a no go for the playoffs.
Baylor currently sits at 6-1 (3-1). They still have to play:
vs Kansas--W
@ Oklahoma--L
vs Oklahoma State--W
vs Texas Tech--W
vs Kansas State--W
Final Record: 10-2 (7-2). If Baylor can get past a motivated OU, they'll be the outright Big XII champs and have a shot at the playoffs.
Ohio State currently sits at 5-1 (2-0). They still have to play:
@ Penn State--W
vs Illinois--W
@ Michigan State--L
@ Minnesota--W
vs Indiana--W
vs Michigan--W
Final Record: 10-2 (7-1). A loss to Michigan State ends their shot at the playoffs. That game 3 weeks from now is going to be huge for both sides.
Arizona currently sits at 5-1 (2-1). They still have to play:
@ Washington State--W
@ UCLA--L
vs Colorado--W
vs Washington--W
@ Utah--L
vs Arizona State--W
Final Record: 9-3 (6-3). 3 losses won't put Arizona into the playoffs.
Arizona State currently sits at 5-1 (3-1). They still have to play:
@ Washington--W
vs Utah--W
vs Notre Dame--L
@ Oregon State--W
vs Washington State--W
@ Arizona--L
Final Record: 9-3 (7-2). Much like Arizona, 3 losses throws Arizona out of the playoffs.
Nebraska currently sits at 6-1 (2-1). They still have to play:
vs Rutgers--W
vs Purdue--W
@ Wisconsin--W
vs Minnesota--W
@ Iowa--W
Final Record: 11-1 (7-1). Trips to Madison and Iowa City will be difficult, and we never know what we will see from Nebraska, but this offense looks capable of putting up points (I mean we put up 19 in the 4th quarter against MSU), and neither Wisconsin nor Iowa have figured themselves out to date. It's definitely possible for Nebraska to win out. 1 loss keeps us in the hunt for a playoff spot.
Utah currently sits at 5-1 (2-1). They still have to play:
vs USC--W
@ Arizona State--L
vs Oregon--W
@ Stanford--W
vs Arizona--W
@ Colorado--W
Final Record: 10-2 (7-2). A 5 week stretch of USC, Arizona State, Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona is absolutely brutal, and it's an optimistic outlook to predict Utah will win 4 of those 5 games. I don't see Utah being a threat to the playoffs.
Here are the schedules of the remaining unbeatens:
Mississippi State is currently 6-0 (3-0). They still have to play:
@ Kentucky--W
vs Arkansas--W
vs UT-Martin--W
@ Alabama--L
vs Vanderbilt--W
@ Ole Miss--L
Final Record: 10-2 (6-2). Mississippi State is a vastly improved team from years past, but trips to Ole Miss and Alabama are going to be difficult. 1 win is possible, 2 seems farfetched at this point. Unfortunately, this will keep Miss St out of the conference title and more than likely out of the playoffs.
Ole Miss currently sits at 7-0 (4-0). They still have to play:
@ LSU--W
vs Auburn--L
vs Presbyterian--W
@ Arkansas--W
vs Mississippi State--W
Final Record: 11-1 (7-1). Ole Miss would win the head-to-head tiebreaker against Alabama and would go to Atlanta to take on Georgia for the SEC title.
Florida State is going to go undefeated. I'm not going to bother with them.
This leaves us with conference championship games looking like:
B1G: Nebraska 11-1 (7-1) vs Michigan State 11-1 (8-0)--I'm going with Nebraska in the rematch
Big XII: I believe 10-2 Baylor would win the tiebreaker between Kansas State, TCU, and Baylor.
Pac-12: Oregon 10-2 (7-2) vs Arizona State/UCLA/USC (??) Deciding who wins the South division gives me a headache--Oregon wins the conference.
SEC: Ole Miss 11-1 (7-1) vs Georgia 11-1 (7-1)--I think Ole Miss wins this game.
Which leaves us with these teams from which the playoff committee must select 4.
13-0 Florida State--ACC Champion
12-1 Nebraska--Big Ten Champion
10-2 Baylor--Big XII Champion
11-2 Oregon--Pac 12 Champion
12-1 Ole Miss--SEC Champion
11-1 Alabama--only loss to SEC Champion Ole Miss
Both Florida State and Ole Miss are in as #1 and #2. Nebraska should get the nod as #3. Which leaves the decision for #4 between Oregon, Baylor, and Alabama. Tough decision, but I'd pick Oregon.
Your inaugural playoffs would be:
#1 Florida State vs #4 Oregon
#2 Ole Miss vs #3 Nebraska
There are 14 Power 5 teams with 1 loss: Auburn, Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Georgia, TCU, Kansas State, Baylor, Ohio State, Arizona, Arizona State, Nebraska, and Utah.
Auburn currently sits at 5-1 (2-1). They're remaining games are:
vs South Carolina--W
@ Ole Miss--W
vs Texas A&M--W
@ Georgia--L
vs Samford--W
@ Alabama--L
Final record: 9-3 (5-3)
It's going to take quite an effort for Auburn to win 2 of those road contests. And I think the committee will be hard pressed to place a 3 loss team in the playoffs.
Alabama currently sits at 6-1 (3-1). They still have to play:
@ Tennessee--W
@ LSU--W
vs Mississippi State--W
vs Western Carolina--W
vs Auburn--W
Final record: 11-1 (7-1)
LSU and Mississippi State are toss-up games, but I think 'Bama will win out. A slip-up against LSU will make things very interesting. In this scenario, 'Bama has a shot at the playoffs.
Oregon currently sits at 6-1 (3-1). They have to play:
@ California--W
vs Stanford--W
@ Utah--L
vs Colorado--W
vs Oregon State--W
Final Record: 10-2 (7-2). A loss for Oregon would be a death-knell for their playoff chances. I don't see them winning all 3 out of Cal, Stanford, and Utah.
Notre Dame currently sits at 6-1. They still have to face:
@ Navy--W
@ Arizona State--W
vs Northwestern--W
vs Louisville--W
@ USC--L
Final Record: 10-2. Much like Oregon, another loss sends them out of the playoffs. Traveling to Arizona State and USC will be tough, and I don't see them winning both of those games.
Michigan State currently sits at 6-1 (3-0). They still have to play:
vs Michigan--W
vs Ohio State--W
@ Maryland--W
vs Rutgers--W
@ Penn State--W
Final Record: 11-1 (8-0). I think MSU gets up for the big game, and will shut down Ohio State. 11-1 would be enough to place them in the playoffs.
Georgia currently sits at 6-1 (4-1): They have to play:
Florida--W
@ Kentucky--W
vs Auburn--W
vs Charleston Southern--W
vs. Georgia Tech--W
Final Record: 11-1 (7-1). Aside from Auburn, Georgia's remaining schedule is a joke. 11-1 gives them a shot at the playoffs.
TCU currently sits at 5-1 (2-1). They still have to play:
vs Texas Tech--W
@ West Virginia--L
vs Kansas State--W
@ Kansas--W
@ Texas--W
vs Iowa State--W
Final Record: 10-2 (7-2). Unfortunately 2 losses would mean TCU is out. They'll drop one against WVU or KSU.
Kansas State currently sits at 5-1 (3-0). They still have to play:
vs Texas--W
vs Oklahoma State--W
@ TCU--L
@ West Virginia--W
vs Kansas--W
@ Baylor--L
Final Record: 9-3 (7-2) Those road games at TCU, West Virginia, and Baylor are going to be incredibly tough for KSU. 3 losses is a no go for the playoffs.
Baylor currently sits at 6-1 (3-1). They still have to play:
vs Kansas--W
@ Oklahoma--L
vs Oklahoma State--W
vs Texas Tech--W
vs Kansas State--W
Final Record: 10-2 (7-2). If Baylor can get past a motivated OU, they'll be the outright Big XII champs and have a shot at the playoffs.
Ohio State currently sits at 5-1 (2-0). They still have to play:
@ Penn State--W
vs Illinois--W
@ Michigan State--L
@ Minnesota--W
vs Indiana--W
vs Michigan--W
Final Record: 10-2 (7-1). A loss to Michigan State ends their shot at the playoffs. That game 3 weeks from now is going to be huge for both sides.
Arizona currently sits at 5-1 (2-1). They still have to play:
@ Washington State--W
@ UCLA--L
vs Colorado--W
vs Washington--W
@ Utah--L
vs Arizona State--W
Final Record: 9-3 (6-3). 3 losses won't put Arizona into the playoffs.
Arizona State currently sits at 5-1 (3-1). They still have to play:
@ Washington--W
vs Utah--W
vs Notre Dame--L
@ Oregon State--W
vs Washington State--W
@ Arizona--L
Final Record: 9-3 (7-2). Much like Arizona, 3 losses throws Arizona out of the playoffs.
Nebraska currently sits at 6-1 (2-1). They still have to play:
vs Rutgers--W
vs Purdue--W
@ Wisconsin--W
vs Minnesota--W
@ Iowa--W
Final Record: 11-1 (7-1). Trips to Madison and Iowa City will be difficult, and we never know what we will see from Nebraska, but this offense looks capable of putting up points (I mean we put up 19 in the 4th quarter against MSU), and neither Wisconsin nor Iowa have figured themselves out to date. It's definitely possible for Nebraska to win out. 1 loss keeps us in the hunt for a playoff spot.
Utah currently sits at 5-1 (2-1). They still have to play:
vs USC--W
@ Arizona State--L
vs Oregon--W
@ Stanford--W
vs Arizona--W
@ Colorado--W
Final Record: 10-2 (7-2). A 5 week stretch of USC, Arizona State, Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona is absolutely brutal, and it's an optimistic outlook to predict Utah will win 4 of those 5 games. I don't see Utah being a threat to the playoffs.
Here are the schedules of the remaining unbeatens:
Mississippi State is currently 6-0 (3-0). They still have to play:
@ Kentucky--W
vs Arkansas--W
vs UT-Martin--W
@ Alabama--L
vs Vanderbilt--W
@ Ole Miss--L
Final Record: 10-2 (6-2). Mississippi State is a vastly improved team from years past, but trips to Ole Miss and Alabama are going to be difficult. 1 win is possible, 2 seems farfetched at this point. Unfortunately, this will keep Miss St out of the conference title and more than likely out of the playoffs.
Ole Miss currently sits at 7-0 (4-0). They still have to play:
@ LSU--W
vs Auburn--L
vs Presbyterian--W
@ Arkansas--W
vs Mississippi State--W
Final Record: 11-1 (7-1). Ole Miss would win the head-to-head tiebreaker against Alabama and would go to Atlanta to take on Georgia for the SEC title.
Florida State is going to go undefeated. I'm not going to bother with them.
This leaves us with conference championship games looking like:
B1G: Nebraska 11-1 (7-1) vs Michigan State 11-1 (8-0)--I'm going with Nebraska in the rematch
Big XII: I believe 10-2 Baylor would win the tiebreaker between Kansas State, TCU, and Baylor.
Pac-12: Oregon 10-2 (7-2) vs Arizona State/UCLA/USC (??) Deciding who wins the South division gives me a headache--Oregon wins the conference.
SEC: Ole Miss 11-1 (7-1) vs Georgia 11-1 (7-1)--I think Ole Miss wins this game.
Which leaves us with these teams from which the playoff committee must select 4.
13-0 Florida State--ACC Champion
12-1 Nebraska--Big Ten Champion
10-2 Baylor--Big XII Champion
11-2 Oregon--Pac 12 Champion
12-1 Ole Miss--SEC Champion
11-1 Alabama--only loss to SEC Champion Ole Miss
Both Florida State and Ole Miss are in as #1 and #2. Nebraska should get the nod as #3. Which leaves the decision for #4 between Oregon, Baylor, and Alabama. Tough decision, but I'd pick Oregon.
Your inaugural playoffs would be:
#1 Florida State vs #4 Oregon
#2 Ole Miss vs #3 Nebraska
