2012 Forecast

[HuskerShark]

Once again, I would be surprised and disappointed if we are worse than last year in any category. Maybe I'm just a big red kool-aid drinker, but IMO the special teams should be just as good or better, the offense should have the maturity and experience to make strides this offseason and be one of the B1G's best offenses, and if the right guys step in on defense, they should be slightly better as well.

I don't think you are kool-aid drinking overly in thinking NU should be better in most categories --- such is not unreasonable. I say that when making a prediction of a slight drop-off in the team as a whole. Neither a modest improvement or a modest step back seems unreasonable. What I'd think is unreasonable is a prediction of substantial improvement (like 1-2 loss predictions) or a massive step back (6-7 loss predictions).

So... we hedge slightly in opposite directions... me thinking a slight step back and you thinking (if I characterize your position accurately) a slight step forward. Both seem reasonable to me. Anything (positive or negative) beyond a modest change... well that is where unreasonable comes in.

Yeah, that's where I sit pretty much. I could see another 9-3 season, or possibly a 10-2. Any less than 9 wins would be very disappointing to me, as I'm sure it would to anyone.

Now, if we go 9-3 and those 3 losses are to OSU, Michigan, and Michigan State by less than 2 TDs in each one, that's what I will consider a successful season. If those losses come by wide margins like they did this year, that's when I will be disappointed with 9 wins. Or if we lose to Iowa or NW, that will piss me off as well.

 

[robsker]

Once again, I would be surprised and disappointed if we are worse than last year in any category. Maybe I'm just a big red kool-aid drinker, but IMO the special teams should be just as good or better, the offense should have the maturity and experience to make strides this offseason and be one of the B1G's best offenses, and if the right guys step in on defense, they should be slightly better as well.

I don't think you are kool-aid drinking overly in thinking NU should be better in most categories --- such is not unreasonable. I say that when making a prediction of a slight drop-off in the team as a whole. Neither a modest improvement or a modest step back seems unreasonable. What I'd think is unreasonable is a prediction of substantial improvement (like 1-2 loss predictions) or a massive step back (6-7 loss predictions).

So... we hedge slightly in opposite directions... me thinking a slight step back and you thinking (if I characterize your position accurately) a slight step forward. Both seem reasonable to me. Anything (positive or negative) beyond a modest change... well that is where unreasonable comes in.

Yeah, that's where I sit pretty much. I could see another 9-3 season, or possibly a 10-2. Any less than 9 wins would be very disappointing to me, as I'm sure it would to anyone.

Now, if we go 9-3 and those 3 losses are to OSU, Michigan, and Michigan State by less than 2 TDs in each one, that's what I will consider a successful season. If those losses come by wide margins like they did this year, that's when I will be disappointed with 9 wins. Or if we lose to Iowa or NW, that will piss me off as well.

I notice no mention of Wisconsin in your last post. How do you view NU relative to Wisconsin? I still view Wisconsin as playing a full level up from NU (maybe a level and a half above NU --- for reference, I see say... Alabama as three levels up from NU).

 

[Huskerlambs]

No way we lose to Northwestern twice in a row, but we'll trip up somewhere else unexpectedly again, like Iowa or MSU, and we'll end up 9-3 again.

For those of you who write down the percentage odds that we'll lose, I just can't bring myself to write that down. I never think we have an 80% chance to lose. I think the worst thing I could write down would be 50%. We have a chance in every game - a break here, a break there...

 

[robsker]

No way we lose to Northwestern twice in a row, but we'll trip up somewhere else unexpectedly again, like Iowa or MSU, and we'll end up 9-3 again.

For those of you who write down the percentage odds that we'll lose, I just can't bring myself to write that down. I never think we have an 80% chance to lose. I think the worst thing I could write down would be 50%. We have a chance in every game - a break here, a break there...

Yeah... I'd rather not write that down either... but if it reflects accurately what I think, objectively, is the case... well then you call it as you see it.

I'd love to think we have a chance in every game... but some teams seem to be at a level that NU has not approached (in the past few years... which is the only relevent time frame to assess).

I do see where you are coming from though.

As Jim Carey says with a big grin "so... you're saying there is a chance..." Being optimistic indeed has its merits.

 

[kchusker_chris]

If we lose Wisconsin, Ohio State, Northwestern, Michigan...4 in a row...all hell will break lose. I still see it at 60% that we lose 3 of these 4 though. We likely won't lose before (I still think Arky is far less than 100% guarenteed like most), and we might not lose after...but October could be a very painful month for Husker fans.

 

[robsker]

If we lose Wisconsin, Ohio State, Northwestern, Michigan...4 in a row...all hell will break lose. I still see it at 60% that we lose 3 of these 4 though. We likely won't lose before (I still think Arky is far less than 100% guarenteed like most), and we might not lose after...but October could be a very painful month for Husker fans.

Yeah... it makes the Northwestern game really rather important. But that is a rough schedule to contend with that month.

 

[Saunders]

Once again, I would be surprised and disappointed if we are worse than last year in any category. Maybe I'm just a big red kool-aid drinker, but IMO the special teams should be just as good or better, the offense should have the maturity and experience to make strides this offseason and be one of the B1G's best offenses, and if the right guys step in on defense, they should be slightly better as well.

I don't think you are kool-aid drinking overly in thinking NU should be better in most categories --- such is not unreasonable. I say that when making a prediction of a slight drop-off in the team as a whole. Neither a modest improvement or a modest step back seems unreasonable. What I'd think is unreasonable is a prediction of substantial improvement (like 1-2 loss predictions) or a massive step back (6-7 loss predictions).

So... we hedge slightly in opposite directions... me thinking a slight step back and you thinking (if I characterize your position accurately) a slight step forward. Both seem reasonable to me. Anything (positive or negative) beyond a modest change... well that is where unreasonable comes in.

Yeah, that's where I sit pretty much. I could see another 9-3 season, or possibly a 10-2. Any less than 9 wins would be very disappointing to me, as I'm sure it would to anyone.

Now, if we go 9-3 and those 3 losses are to OSU, Michigan, and Michigan State by less than 2 TDs in each one, that's what I will consider a successful season. If those losses come by wide margins like they did this year, that's when I will be disappointed with 9 wins. Or if we lose to Iowa or NW, that will piss me off as well.

I notice no mention of Wisconsin in your last post. How do you view NU relative to Wisconsin? I still view Wisconsin as playing a full level up from NU (maybe a level and a half above NU --- for reference, I see say... Alabama as three levels up from NU).

Wisconsin lost almost their entire coaching staff, and Russel Wilson. The QB's behind him are average at best. Without Wilson, wisconsin was an 8-4 at best team last year.

If Wisky goes 10+ wins, I would be shocked.

 

[Treand3]

After watching all of our losses again for the xth time, our losses were predicated off of our mistakes moreso than our opponents flat out whooping us. Outside of Wilson putting stress on our D with his legs, 3 nearly consecutive interceptions from Taylor sent the game spiraling out of control, not to mention NU was up a score and had Ciante picked off a pass that Wilson lofted up to Toon(at the very minimum should have been deflected by Stafford) our offense had their D on their heels at that point, we could have scored and went up by 14. This would have changed how Wiscy called their game.

The Northwestern game for as badly and uninspired NU played, had Rex not fumbled inside of their 5, we score a TD and still probably win.

The Michigan game, once again, resulted in them taking advantage of our many miscues. For as badly as we played, we were only down 7 at the half with chances to get back in the game in the 2nd half. I rewatched this game this past weekend and the score was a little misleading.

So car, we all know what happened in that game.

So realistically I our guys can play cleaner and sharper I like our chances. It's an 'IF' that I hope gets better with experience.

 

[kchusker_chris]

Wisconsin lost almost their entire coaching staff, and Russel Wilson. The QB's behind him are average at best. Without Wilson, wisconsin was an 8-4 at best team last year.

If Wisky goes 10+ wins, I would be shocked.

Monte. Ball. (and I think Wisconsin is just going to always be that team that has our number - like K-State & Texas)

 

[robsker]

After watching all of our losses again for the xth time, our losses were predicated off of our mistakes moreso than our opponents flat out whooping us. Outside of Wilson putting stress on our D with his legs, 3 nearly consecutive interceptions from Taylor sent the game spiraling out of control, not to mention NU was up a score and had Ciante picked off a pass that Wilson lofted up to Toon(at the very minimum should have been deflected by Stafford) our offense had their D on their heels at that point, we could have scored and went up by 14. This would have changed how Wiscy called their game.

The Northwestern game for as badly and uninspired NU played, had Rex not fumbled inside of their 5, we score a TD and still probably win.

The Michigan game, once again, resulted in them taking advantage of our many miscues. For as badly as we played, we were only down 7 at the half with chances to get back in the game in the 2nd half. I rewatched this game this past weekend and the score was a little misleading.

So car, we all know what happened in that game.

So realistically I our guys can play cleaner and sharper I like our chances. It's an 'IF' that I hope gets better with experience.

Sure playing sharp and clean, focused and motivated has been pretty much a thing of the past for NU football... those words (focused, sharp, motivated, etc.) have not been accurate descriptive words for NU football for a long time now. But you are right, if the coaches can elicit such things from our players then NU will be well ahead of where they have been... it is just that no inkling that such is forthcoming has been seen... at least insofar as no progress in these areas has been made over the recent past. The NU staff has not been able to get the team focused and playing hard all game long, both sides of the ball, irrespective of score yet... so, if the past is the best indicator of the future... I would not count on much change. Though... you never know.

 

[Treand3]

After watching all of our losses again for the xth time, our losses were predicated off of our mistakes moreso than our opponents flat out whooping us. Outside of Wilson putting stress on our D with his legs, 3 nearly consecutive interceptions from Taylor sent the game spiraling out of control, not to mention NU was up a score and had Ciante picked off a pass that Wilson lofted up to Toon(at the very minimum should have been deflected by Stafford) our offense had their D on their heels at that point, we could have scored and went up by 14. This would have changed how Wiscy called their game.

The Northwestern game for as badly and uninspired NU played, had Rex not fumbled inside of their 5, we score a TD and still probably win.

The Michigan game, once again, resulted in them taking advantage of our many miscues. For as badly as we played, we were only down 7 at the half with chances to get back in the game in the 2nd half. I rewatched this game this past weekend and the score was a little misleading.

So car, we all know what happened in that game.

So realistically I our guys can play cleaner and sharper I like our chances. It's an 'IF' that I hope gets better with experience.

Sure playing sharp and clean, focused and motivated has been pretty much a thing of the past for NU football... those words (focused, sharp, motivated, etc.) have not been accurate descriptive words for NU football for a long time now. But you are right, if the coaches can elicit such things from our players then NU will be well ahead of where they have been... it is just that no inkling that such is forthcoming has been seen... at least insofar as no progress in these areas has been made over the recent past. The NU staff has not been able to get the team focused and playing hard all game long, both sides of the ball, irrespective of score yet... so, if the past is the best indicator of the future... I would not count on much change. Though... you never know.

I think some of these things are doable and isn't too much to ask for, much less expect from our team. I felt the common theme from our 11-12 team was that the moment just got too big for our guys, if that makes any sense and they subsequently weren't able to handle it. However, like you and many say, you're only as good as your last appearance. So here's for to an offseason of mental toughness. GBR

 

[Scratchtown]

I'm gunna guess that we lose 4 games. Don't know who it will be to other than Michigan and Ohio State.

but I will go with losses to...

Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Bowl game to SEC.

 

[HuskerShark]

Once again, I would be surprised and disappointed if we are worse than last year in any category. Maybe I'm just a big red kool-aid drinker, but IMO the special teams should be just as good or better, the offense should have the maturity and experience to make strides this offseason and be one of the B1G's best offenses, and if the right guys step in on defense, they should be slightly better as well.

I don't think you are kool-aid drinking overly in thinking NU should be better in most categories --- such is not unreasonable. I say that when making a prediction of a slight drop-off in the team as a whole. Neither a modest improvement or a modest step back seems unreasonable. What I'd think is unreasonable is a prediction of substantial improvement (like 1-2 loss predictions) or a massive step back (6-7 loss predictions).

So... we hedge slightly in opposite directions... me thinking a slight step back and you thinking (if I characterize your position accurately) a slight step forward. Both seem reasonable to me. Anything (positive or negative) beyond a modest change... well that is where unreasonable comes in.

Yeah, that's where I sit pretty much. I could see another 9-3 season, or possibly a 10-2. Any less than 9 wins would be very disappointing to me, as I'm sure it would to anyone.

Now, if we go 9-3 and those 3 losses are to OSU, Michigan, and Michigan State by less than 2 TDs in each one, that's what I will consider a successful season. If those losses come by wide margins like they did this year, that's when I will be disappointed with 9 wins. Or if we lose to Iowa or NW, that will piss me off as well.

I notice no mention of Wisconsin in your last post. How do you view NU relative to Wisconsin? I still view Wisconsin as playing a full level up from NU (maybe a level and a half above NU --- for reference, I see say... Alabama as three levels up from NU).

Ah, Wisconsin. They will be solid IMO because they got Monte Ball to come back for one more year, and the dude is good. Fortunately for us, they won't have Russell Wilson running and throwing all over us. I wouldn't say that they were/are on a higher level than us. They just played their best game of the year vs us, and we played probably our worst or 2nd worst (NW) game vs them, hence the ending score. Next year, as far as I know, their QB will not be mobile, and their offense will resemble Iowa, with a better line and a better RB.

Alabama, I would put maybe a level to a level and a half ahead of us. I think if we put it all together this year or in 2013, we could be on about the same level with Bama and will be able to beat absolutely anybody that we walk on the field and play. Talent-wise, we are far from where Bama is, obviously, but I honestly think that as a whole, we are not as far off as a lot of people think.

 

[Hunter94]

woulda, coulda, shouda.........damn, sounds like homer speak to me........based on all the reasons we lost, properly avoiding 100% of them would have given us a couple more wins.........well, sure, i could see that, but you could say that for every team that lost a game by 14 points or less........what makes us any different?

just sayin........this team needs to learn how to make plays not mistakes.

 

[robsker]

Once again, I would be surprised and disappointed if we are worse than last year in any category. Maybe I'm just a big red kool-aid drinker, but IMO the special teams should be just as good or better, the offense should have the maturity and experience to make strides this offseason and be one of the B1G's best offenses, and if the right guys step in on defense, they should be slightly better as well.

I don't think you are kool-aid drinking overly in thinking NU should be better in most categories --- such is not unreasonable. I say that when making a prediction of a slight drop-off in the team as a whole. Neither a modest improvement or a modest step back seems unreasonable. What I'd think is unreasonable is a prediction of substantial improvement (like 1-2 loss predictions) or a massive step back (6-7 loss predictions).

So... we hedge slightly in opposite directions... me thinking a slight step back and you thinking (if I characterize your position accurately) a slight step forward. Both seem reasonable to me. Anything (positive or negative) beyond a modest change... well that is where unreasonable comes in.

Yeah, that's where I sit pretty much. I could see another 9-3 season, or possibly a 10-2. Any less than 9 wins would be very disappointing to me, as I'm sure it would to anyone.

Now, if we go 9-3 and those 3 losses are to OSU, Michigan, and Michigan State by less than 2 TDs in each one, that's what I will consider a successful season. If those losses come by wide margins like they did this year, that's when I will be disappointed with 9 wins. Or if we lose to Iowa or NW, that will piss me off as well.

I notice no mention of Wisconsin in your last post. How do you view NU relative to Wisconsin? I still view Wisconsin as playing a full level up from NU (maybe a level and a half above NU --- for reference, I see say... Alabama as three levels up from NU).

Ah, Wisconsin. They will be solid IMO because they got Monte Ball to come back for one more year, and the dude is good. Fortunately for us, they won't have Russell Wilson running and throwing all over us. I wouldn't say that they were/are on a higher level than us. They just played their best game of the year vs us, and we played probably our worst or 2nd worst (NW) game vs them, hence the ending score. Next year, as far as I know, their QB will not be mobile, and their offense will resemble Iowa, with a better line and a better RB.

Alabama, I would put maybe a level to a level and a half ahead of us. I think if we put it all together this year or in 2013, we could be on about the same level with Bama and will be able to beat absolutely anybody that we walk on the field and play. Talent-wise, we are far from where Bama is, obviously, but I honestly think that as a whole, we are not as far off as a lot of people think.

Interesting...

I see Alabama, USC and LSU occupying level one. Level Two is where a grouping of ca. 6-8 or so reside --- the next best level. Wisconsin is not there, but is a half "level" off that. Level three, is where Wisconsin and Ohio State reside (and maybe Michigan... though Michigan may show... in time, that they are at the bottom of level 2). Alongside Wisconsin & OSU are another 10 or so programs in the Level 3 category. The next level, level 4, are those teams --- like NU, that are fringe top 25 programs... programs where the football is still good and where such teams can "surprise" some above them from time to time... but are not contenders for BCS births or conference championships --- yet are formidable and good programs. NU resides here, I'd think... alongside 6-8 comparable programs.

Where a program resides in such a pecking order changes with time as some programs are climbing and others falling.

I have USC in the top level... watch out for USC next season... they have almost obscene amounts of talant and are perched to return to the top --- I'd think the only non SEC team to have a shot at Level one play. I hate USC... so I wish indeed it were otherwise... but they will be great.