2015 Opponent Previews: Wisconsin
- Thread starter Saunders
- Start date
I think what Sargon is saying is you can't go 9-4 as a division winner unless you're excluding the bowl game. If Wisconsin made it to the B1G title game and a bowl game they'd have a 14 game schedule, meaning they'd either be 9-5 or 10-4.
I didn't read the article but I'm guessing they're not counting the bowl game, Sargon, so Wisconsin could end up going 9-4, save the bowl game, like Saunders45 said.
I didn't read the article but I'm guessing they're not counting the bowl game, Sargon, so Wisconsin could end up going 9-4, save the bowl game, like Saunders45 said.
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Pretty sure all the projected records do not include bowl games as it's even tougher to predict who's going to win a game where you don't know the opponents than one where you do know the opponents. At least for the CCG they can say who they're expecting to be there and who'll win.
Saunders
Heisman Trophy Winner
RunMickeyRun02
Starter
This is one thing I don't like about thr bigger conferences now-a-days, it's more about who you don't play in your own conference than who you do.Wisconsin's schedule
Ohio State is not on their schedule. They lose to Bama week 1 then will be favored in 11 or 10 (@NU) games.
No MSU. No UM. No PSU. KSU of the 90's type schedule.
9/05/15 vs. Alabama
09/12/15 vs. Miami (Ohio) Camp Randall Stadium
09/19/15 vs. Troy Camp Randall Stadium
09/26/15 vs. Hawai'iCamp Randall Stadium
10/03/15 vs. Iowa * Camp Randall Stadium
10/10/15 at Nebraska * Lincoln, Neb.
10/17/15 vs. Purdue * Camp Randall Stadium
10/24/15 at Illinois * Champaign, Ill.
10/31/15 vs. Rutgers * Camp Randall Stadium
11/07/15 at Maryland * College Park, Md.
11/21/15 vs. Northwestern * Camp Randall Stadium
11/28/15 at Minnesota * Minneapolis, Minn.
(Edited to add "Wisconsin's schedule")
cornographic
Banned
We haven't even played Indiana yet--will we ever?This is one thing I don't like about thr bigger conferences now-a-days, it's more about who you don't play in your own conference than who you do.Wisconsin's schedule
Ohio State is not on their schedule. They lose to Bama week 1 then will be favored in 11 or 10 (@NU) games.
No MSU. No UM. No PSU. KSU of the 90's type schedule.
9/05/15 vs. Alabama
09/12/15 vs. Miami (Ohio) Camp Randall Stadium
09/19/15 vs. Troy Camp Randall Stadium
09/26/15 vs. Hawai'iCamp Randall Stadium
10/03/15 vs. Iowa * Camp Randall Stadium
10/10/15 at Nebraska * Lincoln, Neb.
10/17/15 vs. Purdue * Camp Randall Stadium
10/24/15 at Illinois * Champaign, Ill.
10/31/15 vs. Rutgers * Camp Randall Stadium
11/07/15 at Maryland * College Park, Md.
11/21/15 vs. Northwestern * Camp Randall Stadium
11/28/15 at Minnesota * Minneapolis, Minn.
(Edited to add "Wisconsin's schedule")
Pretty pud sched for Wiscy, like ours, except we play Sparta. Kinda sucks to be in the B1G and not play the preminent teams of tOSU and MI or our hated rival PSU.
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Sargon
Starter
Corno Indiana NU was scheduled for '15 '16 IIRC but Big Jim trashed that after adding Maryland and Rut. Now it's at Indy in '16 and Lincoln '19. Indy's AD wanted to be NU's new rival (lulz) and Delany said he'd think about it (no f'ing way losers). There is now some sort of "competition" scheduling which means Jim wants more marketable games like NU vs. anyone who draws TV eyeballs while supporting it with some logical sounding bs that makes it all fair and perfectly sensible. (I agree with his approach also btw this is afterall a P&L guy's attempt to maximize conference FB profit NPV).
9-4 Wisky post CCG is unlikely. UW at 9-3 and winning the West is maybe 15%, then a 70% chance to lose the CCG. Wisky's likely losses after bama are NU and Minny it's tie-breaker competition.
8-4 Wisky winning the West and the CCG is probably below 1%.
Any simulation geek want to run it for us? I (maybe) would but alas no sim software installed for years now.
9-4 Wisky post CCG is unlikely. UW at 9-3 and winning the West is maybe 15%, then a 70% chance to lose the CCG. Wisky's likely losses after bama are NU and Minny it's tie-breaker competition.
8-4 Wisky winning the West and the CCG is probably below 1%.
Any simulation geek want to run it for us? I (maybe) would but alas no sim software installed for years now.
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Sargon
Starter
zoogs I don't know much about the game software. A real simulation analysis is done by running a simulation model say 10,000 times.
I'm guessing the games run seasons once. That is useless. However, the designers might (probably do) force results into a very predictable range. They might use a standard deviation for football games of 3 points to accomplish this. The real standard deviation of college football games is around 16 points.
Anyway, in our case all the Big Ten west games need to be simulated. 10,000 or so iterations run then stats are computed on all the saved data (all games for all iterations) to see how likely various outcomes are based on the actual iteration results. For example, the percent chance that Wisky goes 9-3 and wins the division and loses the ccg. That scenario isn't zero but it's not likely. Most likely is probably UW wins the division at 10-2. Next most likely is probably NU wins at 10-2 or maybe UW at 11-1.
If like me, you would adjust the power rankings compared to Vegas today, your output would be different. I'd bump NU up and UW down.
NU improves on coach, passing, rush d; drops in rush O
UW improves on nothing, coaching a push, drops in O line and RB
I'd power rank Wisky around 24 and NU around 22 plus a 5 point home field advantage vs. UW. Vegas might have it around UW 18, NU 33, or something like that.
I'm guessing the games run seasons once. That is useless. However, the designers might (probably do) force results into a very predictable range. They might use a standard deviation for football games of 3 points to accomplish this. The real standard deviation of college football games is around 16 points.
Anyway, in our case all the Big Ten west games need to be simulated. 10,000 or so iterations run then stats are computed on all the saved data (all games for all iterations) to see how likely various outcomes are based on the actual iteration results. For example, the percent chance that Wisky goes 9-3 and wins the division and loses the ccg. That scenario isn't zero but it's not likely. Most likely is probably UW wins the division at 10-2. Next most likely is probably NU wins at 10-2 or maybe UW at 11-1.
If like me, you would adjust the power rankings compared to Vegas today, your output would be different. I'd bump NU up and UW down.
NU improves on coach, passing, rush d; drops in rush O
UW improves on nothing, coaching a push, drops in O line and RB
I'd power rank Wisky around 24 and NU around 22 plus a 5 point home field advantage vs. UW. Vegas might have it around UW 18, NU 33, or something like that.
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I agree this game just makes me angry to think about it was unacceptable and it was a perfect example of Bo not being a good enough coach to keep his team composed and a staff in a big time program fumbling around like it was amateur hour.
