2018 Final Four

For Michigan to win this they are going to have to contest all those threes Nova takes. I remember seeing a stat that they contested like 70 percent of the shots Loyola took in the second half. Also, they have a low post disadvantage when Wagner is at the 5, I think Jay Wright will try to make him defend without fouling on the Nova big. Michigan cannot go cold like the last two games from deep, they need to shoot well like they did against A&M, but no way do they have to shoot out of their mind like they did that game. Another factor will be if anyone besides Wagner can rise up, Duncan Robinson can shoot and that Matthews is an athletic freak who can get to the hoop. Lastly, Simpson needs to be engaged. Against Loyola, he was not in the game very well and made many mistakes. He needs to push the tempo and make shots.

Nova shoots as well as they did against KU and it is going to be a 10-15 point cushion the whole game. The only problem they could have is if their big man gets in foul trouble or they sub him out because Wagner is taking him to the hoop every time. It is simple for Nova, defend as well as they have been, shoot well and run their sets and win the rebound game. If Michigan rebounds well that may keep them in the game, so Nova needs to control that aspect and they should be good. 

Here is a stat that is pretty telling of the B1G, Michigan State was the last big ten team to win the National Championship and that was in 2000. So we will see if that streak will be snapped or not. 

 
Nova has 6 absolute studs.  No foul trouble and only one guy really was playing well.  Michigan going to have to get their offense figured out quick or Nova could throw a haymaker and end this.

 
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