2018 mid-term

Conor Lamb didn't run as anything even close to a Republican (as shown in previous posts in this thread), so that conclusion isn't supported by the evidence.

 
Vox is saying it's official now. 



From the Vox article:

In a stunning upset, Democrat Conor Lamb won an incredibly close special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, beating out Republican candidate Rick Saccone in a deeply conservative district the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates R+11.

The race stretched into Wednesday midday, when CNN said Lamb was in the lead with 627 votes, with 100 percent of precincts reporting. State law does not mandate a recount in district-level elections.

Conventional wisdom suggested that Saccone — a candidate who once declared himself “Trump before Trump was Trump” — would do well in a district that turned out in droves for President Donald Trump in 2016. But in recent weeks, Republicans were in full panic mode, dumping over $9 million into the race. Lamb’s victory shows they were right to be so worried.
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knapplc said:
From the Vox article:

Conventional wisdom suggested that Saccone — a candidate who once declared himself “Trump before Trump was Trump” — would do well in a district that turned out in droves for President Donald Trump in 2016. But in recent weeks, Republicans were in full panic mode, dumping over $9 million into the race. Lamb’s victory shows they were right to be so worried.
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Also encouraging is that dumping tons of money into a race isn't a guaranteed win. Being able to overcome of the money in politics is a much-needed shot in the arm for our democracy.

 
Is there any insight to what Pennsylvania is going to look like this time next year after the electoral districts are redrawn?

I haven't seen the new map, if it's even available, but I would assume the southeast corner would still likely go to a Republican with the Allegheny area being more likely represented with a Dem in new alignment.  I'm still trying to wrap my head around why the GOP put so much money and energy into a race that really might not mean anything in 6 months.  They spent money to just get embarrassed as far as I can tell.

 
funhusker said:
Is there any insight to what Pennsylvania is going to look like this time next year after the electoral districts are redrawn?

I haven't seen the new map, if it's even available, but I would assume the southeast corner would still likely go to a Republican with the Allegheny area being more likely represented with a Dem in new alignment.  I'm still trying to wrap my head around why the GOP put so much money and energy into a race that really might not mean anything in 6 months.  They spent money to just get embarrassed as far as I can tell.
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This is a good article that includes maps of previous boundaries and the updated.

 
FrankWheeler said:
This is a good article that includes maps of previous boundaries and the updated.
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Thanks!

So I think my thought is right.  The area that allowed Lamb to win (Allegheny) is going to be part of Pittsburgh and most likely represented by Democrat, and the Southwest corner will continue to be represented by a Republican after November elections.

So the GOP threw money at a race that really didn't mean anything outside of the next few months.  My thought, not that it matters, is they could have just let it be and still have a majority in the house and also have the argument that they didn't even try because the district would be redrawn and the Southeast would get the Rep they want then.

As long as Trump's pride took a hit, I'm happy though.

 
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