2018 NFL Draft

O/U 1.5 on Nebraska Players Drafted

  • Over

    Votes: 19 50.0%

  • Under

    Votes: 19 50.0%
  • Total voters
    38
  • Poll closed .
Moiraine said:
But it's not 20%. It's 58% (using the average - also, the average happens to be the exact # for 2018 as well - there were 33 5-stars this year).

You would not get similar results throwing darts at a board, even if you only had 3, 4, and 5-stars on the board.

If you group all the 3, 4, 5s together you have a total of 1,677 players per year on average. Using random selection, 1.97% of the drafted players would be 5-stars. Even 20% is far better than that. This shows that 5-stars are a lot different than 3-stars in general (using random selection, 80.1% of the drafted players would be 3-stars). But, at the same time, it shows that having good coaches counts for something. The recruiting rankings will never be perfect, and there will always be players who exceed expectations, and others that don't meet them.
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I think you're mixing percentages. If you're using random selection across the entire 1677 players to get 1.97% of drafted players are expected to be 5 stars, then you also have to use the entire number of players drafted when looking at the actual number of 5 stars drafted, which results in 19 out of 232 or 8.2%.

 
RedDenver said:
I think you're mixing percentages. If you're using random selection across the entire 1677 players to get 1.97% of drafted players are expected to be 5 stars, then you also have to use the entire number of players drafted when looking at the actual number of 5 stars drafted, which results in 19 out of 232 or 8.2%.
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Yep you're right. When comparing the 1.97% I did % of 5-stars drafted instead of % of drafted players = 5-stars.

I think that other stuff I said about the 7.25x is correct, at least.

 
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Nebfanatic said:
The thing is if you went with a one year method you would see a higher percentage of players drafted. It would be closer to 19 of 33 players were drafted. Regardless, they were consistent in how they gathered the data so it doesn't matter. They had numbers for all of the other stars so here are the chances of making the NFL based on your star rating based on the numbers given.

5 star-19%(19/100)

4 star-7.5%(67/901)

3 star-2.6%(107/4032)

2 star-0.6%(18/2644)

Unranked- 0.3%(21/6775)
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I mean, it's fine when comparing them to each other. But it doesn't make sense to do it that way and the percentages look atrocious. Unless they removed the ones that are still in school and didn't mention it.

 
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Moiraine said:
I mean, it's fine when comparing them to each other. But it doesn't make sense to do it that way and the percentages look atrocious. Unless they removed the ones that are still in school and didn't mention it.
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And the ones who have entered the league already. Its a flawed way to look at it, even if you multiplied the numbers by 3 to give a more year by year look. That gets you to the 58% you have been talking about but even that is flawed. I'd say the best way would be to do it backwards rather than forwards meaning start with one recruiting cycle and wait until everyone finishes their careers, then evaluate how many from that class were eventually drafted. 

 
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Nebfanatic said:
And the ones who have entered the league already. Its a flawed way to look at it, even if you multiplied the numbers by 3 to give a more year by year look. That gets you to the 58% you have been talking about but even that is flawed. I'd say the best way would be to do it backwards rather than forwards meaning start with one recruiting cycle and wait until everyone finishes their careers, then evaluate how many from that class were eventually drafted. 
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Ya I agree with that.

 
When you talk about star ratings and the NFL draft you have to consider that there are very, very few (if any) high school seniors who are ready to play in the NFL.  Star ratings do a fine job of rating the *current* athletic ability of players.  But star ratings don't predict future potential very well.  Some guys grow, get faster, and get stronger in college. Some guys hit the weight room, the film room, and have good coaching in college.  And they get better.  Other guys don't.  And they fall by the wayside. 

That's just considering athletic ability.  Lots of guys don't make it to the NFL, or very far in college, because of injury, drugs, girlfriends, grades, etc.   

 
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Glad to see Lee getting drafted. Good for him and it keeps our 56 year streak going of having at least one person in the draft.  Is that a record?

 
I'm happy to see him drafted, I was very critical of him during his one season here as starter but am happy for him and hope he makes the most of his opportunity.

 
Nine NFL veterans who have been put on notice after NFL draft
USA Today•April 28, 2018

<snip>

Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit Lions

The last time the Lions enjoyed a 100-yard rusher was Nov. 28, 2013. That’s an indictment on Abdullah and his cohorts and predecessors. But with Detroit selecting Auburn's Kerryon Johnson with the 43rd selection, Detroit is banking on finding its workhorse of the future.  LINK
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The Lions traded up to get Kerryon Johnson.  Sounds like the heat is on for Abdullah. 

 
A lot of people making a lot of noise about this year's draft outcome, sniping Pelini's recruiting in process. I see where that's coming from. However, and this isn't an apology for Bo's recruiting, it wasn't up to snuff. But, I really think this falls more on Riley's player development and failed experiments more than Pelini's recruiting.

Kalu was a star in the making under Pelini, his development leveled off under Riley, and Diaco moved our best corner to safety last year-  hurt his stock? You bet. 

Gates played as a true freshman, and got worse under Riley, what's more he was totally failed by the strength & conditioning program

Chris Jones goes from an all-conference team to barely playing, for reasons? - Hurt his stock? You bet. 

Knevel- see Gates. 

Had these guys continued to develop under Pelini, I'd wager they'd have all heard their names called. Heck, if Riley hadn't brought in Diaco, I'd wager that Kalu and Jones would have still had their names called. 

Makes you really feel bad for these athletes that had their talent and potential wasted under Riley/ by Eichorst. 

 
TGHusker said:
Glad to see Lee getting drafted. Good for him and it keeps our 56 year streak going of having at least one person in the draft.  Is that a record?
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Nebraska has the 5th longest streak going behind Florida, Michigan State (wouldn't have guessed that), USC and Michigan.  Link included if you want to play around with different schools this is from last year.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?abbr=N&collegeName=Nebraska&abbrFlag=0&type=school

 
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Born N Bled Red said:
A lot of people making a lot of noise about this year's draft outcome, sniping Pelini's recruiting in process. I see where that's coming from. However, and this isn't an apology for Bo's recruiting, it wasn't up to snuff. But, I really think this falls more on Riley's player development and failed experiments more than Pelini's recruiting.

Kalu was a star in the making under Pelini, his development leveled off under Riley, and Diaco moved our best corner to safety last year-  hurt his stock? You bet. 

Gates played as a true freshman, and got worse under Riley, what's more he was totally failed by the strength & conditioning program

Chris Jones goes from an all-conference team to barely playing, for reasons? - Hurt his stock? You bet. 

Knevel- see Gates. 

Had these guys continued to develop under Pelini, I'd wager they'd have all heard their names called. Heck, if Riley hadn't brought in Diaco, I'd wager that Kalu and Jones would have still had their names called. 

Makes you really feel bad for these athletes that had their talent and potential wasted under Riley/ by Eichorst. 
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http://www.omaha.com/huskers/blogs/sam-s-extra-points-breaking-down-nebraska-s-recent-nfl/article_ffa57de9-3d05-579c-9cf7-b7e4474fbed1.html

Sam wrote a pretty good article ripping both Pelini and Riley.  It's a good read.

Guy Chamberlin said:
Wait. Nebraska had ONE player chosen in the entire draft, in the sixth round?
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I remember some jerk from Oregon who said only Lee would get drafted.  Can you believe that guy? ;)

 
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