** 2018 Opponent Previews: Iowa (Game 12) **

[BigRedBuster]

The key to me is rush defense. Iowa is still stout, but MSU was very elite against the run. Iowa isn't quite there and I think that gives us what we need to move the ball. If we can be effective on the ground I like our chances. You know we are going to bust the defense on at least 1 vertical passing play, the key will be completing that pass, something we didn't do against MSU.

I think the key is that we should have much better weather and so Frost and company will have much more of their offense available to them.  Against MSU, everyone and their dog knew they didn't have to defend much past the line of scrimmage.  That won't be the case on Friday.

 

[Hilltop]

Looks like the rain is going to hold off until well after the game is over.  The forecast is now saying cloudy, 46F, and 12-15MPH south winds.  Pretty nice weather for a late November game.  

 

[Ulty]

Hopefully Spielman is back and close to 100%, that will make a huge difference. Having to account for 2 star wideouts instead of one would open up both the passing game and the run game. MSU had fewer things to worry about.

 

[BigRedBuster]

Hopefully Spielman is back and close to 100%, that will make a huge difference. Having to account for 2 star wideouts instead of one would open up both the passing game and the run game. MSU had fewer things to worry about.

I'm very concerned about him not being available for this game....and, disappointed we don't have someone who seems to be a serviceable replacement.

 

[Mierin]

One stat/factor not indicated: Heart.

We are 9th in TO margin over the last 3 games. Iowa’s 12th. 

 

[Nebfanatic]

I think the key is that we should have much better weather and so Frost and company will have much more of their offense available to them.  Against MSU, everyone and their dog knew they didn't have to defend much past the line of scrimmage.  That won't be the case on Friday.

Agreed, the weather will play a part. But even with the weather we beat spartys run D on what they have been giving up on the year. Iowa has been fairly more generous on the ground so that combined with the improved weather will only help us that much more. We should be able to run for 175-200 which will be big if we can also connect on our vertical shot that we will take at some point. Its almost a given this offense will get a guy wide open on a deep pass at least once a game.

All this said I really think the game hinges on the defense.

 

[LumberJackSker]

Can we get a barf emoji for this?

 

[suh_fan93]

We are 9th in TO margin over the last 3 games. Iowa’s 12th. 

I'll take it.   :throwdabones1:

 

[runningblind]

I was looking at Saturday on accident

Already downgraded to 25% chance of rain and now high of 46 Friday.  Good news.

 

[Undone]

Let's not pretend that Iowa's offense has turned a corner or anything against Illinois.  Yes, they scored 63, but with only 400 yards of total offense (203 rush, 197 pass).  Iowa had 6.7 yards/play on the day, and on the season Illinois gives up 7.1 yards/play.  (We averaged 10.5 yards/play against Illinois).

But Iowa's D is stout and very similar to MSU.  They only allow 4.3 yards/play (MSU is at 4.5 yards/play).

I was thinking basically the same thing. Lovie Smith's team had completely given up going into that game, too. 

If Spielman were 100% healthy and the weather weren't terrible on game day, I'd take us to win it. Iowa doesn't have athletes or speed on defense. What they do have, however, is a really good defensive line. So running against them in bad weather will probably go exactly like it did against Michigan State. Their defensive stats have been a bit padded in my opinion by not having to play either of the two best teams in the East.

On a day with good weather though, those little swing passes that Frost hung his hat on against Michigan State would tear Iowa up because they just don't have the speed to keep up. All told, I don't feel that confident that we'll win if the weather is bad at this point. 

 

[melscott62]

We are 9th in TO margin over the last 3 games. Iowa’s 12th. 

Yeah looking at the whole year is not logical.  Totally different team from NW on.

 

[cheekygeek]

As of noon on Monday:
Overall precip chances.

GFS currently sees this area of precip at Noon:

GFS Currently sees this area of precip at 6 PM:

Total Precip for the period ranges from .1" to .4" in the area with Iowa City currently forecast for a total of .3" by 6 PM.

This will likely change by Friday.

Winds: 15 kts out of the south at noon (17.25 mph approx)

 

[Undone]

If really did turn out to be 40 degrees and raining, Iowa is probably the favored team.

Iowa's total defense ranks 6th. Our total offense ranks 20th. Our strength of schedule has been tougher, so those two things probably inch a bit closer towards being roughly even.

But in bad weather and without Spielman, like we saw Saturday, we're greatly limited.

 

[4skers89]

Need a little less wind.

 

[MichiganDad3]

If really did turn out to be 40 degrees and raining, Iowa is probably the favored team.

Iowa's total defense ranks 6th. Our total offense ranks 20th. Our strength of schedule has been tougher, so those two things probably inch a bit closer towards being roughly even.

But in bad weather and without Spielman, like we saw Saturday, we're greatly limited.

No JD is a major setback. Didn't Frost recruit some speedy receivers that should know the offense by now? Our offense is better than 20th because of the difference between the beginning of the season and now. The team is getting better every week.