***2019 Pre-Season Previews Megathread***

Big Ten Burning Questions for Nebraska (and other top teams)

Nebraska: Can Scott Frost repeat his second-year magic?

  • History repeats itself: At UCF, Frost had a disappointing first season with a losing record, but quickly turned it around to lead the Golden Knights to an undefeated record. Nebraska completed the first part of the equation, with a 4-8 record in 2018. While a 13-0 season won’t happen, there’s reason to believe Frost can work a similar turnaround.
  • Martinez and momentum: Just like with McKenzie Milton, Frost has a Heisman-caliber quarterback in Adrian Martinez. As a true freshman, he compiled 3,200 total yards and 25 touchdowns, and is set to build on those figures. Nebraska won four of its last six games last year, and has the opportunity to carry that momentum in 2019.
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Mich St is the head scratcher here. I know where he’s coming from..amazing defense, returning experience, and an offense that should be improved simply because it shouldn’t have to deal with so many injuries.

To me, that’s not nearly enough to warrant 13th. They’re experimenting on offense (hopefully to one actually intended to score points), and even when healthy, they have a striking tendency to perform poorly relative to their record. They don’t have those hidden stats a team like Nebraska had last year. 

What do I mean by hidden stats? If we look at pythagorean win expectation, which is based on purely points scored and allowed, Nebraska won 2 fewer games than they should. But even that’s quite conservative because Nebraska did such a poor job converting yards to points. Ignoring anything other than converting yards to points (and bad luck), there’s about 4 games or so in just hidden stats.

For Michigan St? Not really, except lost production due to that massive amount of injuries. In a rare year for them, they won as many games as expected.

The real problem here for Michigan St, again comparing them to another potential surprise team in Nebraska, is their limited ability to improve. Their defense can’t really get much better relative to their talent level. Their offense, being so anemic for so long, can, but they need systemic adjustments to get there.

Finally, there is the schedule. Northwestern, Wisconsin, Ohio St, and Michigan all on the road. Normally, I wouldn’t include Northwestern here, but they’re kissing cousins. Both teams tend to underperform relative to wins, play a lot of close games, and hope to get lucky. Maybe NW is just better at it, or maybe it’s sample size....but they’ve won 4 of the last 5 meetings. 

 
On 7/3/2019 at 7:05 PM, Scarlet Overkill said:

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Says we were 3-9  and we beat Colorado last year.  Hmmm.  Interesting.

Every game is another shootout and seems to be an "interesting" game coming down to last possession.  Predicts 9-3.  Said a lot without saying anything.  

 
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BigRedN said:
Says we were 3-9  and we beat Colorado last year.  Hmmm.  Interesting.

Every game is another shootout and seems to be an "interesting" game coming down to last possession.  Predicts 9-3.  Said a lot without saying anything.  
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Pretty much like every other “publication” with a prediction

 
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