I don’t know who will be playing on defense. A lot of the would be participants were injured last year. We would hope Darrion Daniels is a major contributor immediately from this class, but several others might be as well. By fall, we could see a significant number of players that didn’t see much, if any, time last year.
2019 Season Prediction Thread
- Thread starter Mavric
- Start date
I don’t know who will be playing on defense. A lot of the would be participants were injured last year. We would hope Darrion Daniels is a major contributor immediately from this class, but several others might be as well. By fall, we could see a significant number of players that didn’t see much, if any, time last year.
Caveman
Five-Star Recruit
You're right, I was spicing things up with hyperbole. All the games are definitely winnable, although I feel we will need a number of lucky breaks in order to win 10 or more, especially with our penchant for penalties and turnovers.
Edit: In summary, 10+ wins is doable, but the fact that the majority of those polled believe we will achieve that is a bit shocking.
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B.B. Hemingway
All-American
Kool aid is typical this time of year :lol:
I wouldn't be shocked with anything between 8-4 or 10-2... Anything better or worse would surprise me a little.
Caveman
Five-Star Recruit
Mierin
Assistant Coach
You said:
“I love the optimism, but a 10+ win season is outrageous.”
Do you know what 10+ wins means?
It means 10 wins or 11 wins or 12 wins or 13 wins or 14 wins or 15 wins.
By default, if 10+ is outrageous, 10 wins is outrageous. Picking 10+ wins instead of 10 increases the chance that someone is correct in their prediction. It’s less outrageous to pick 10 wins than it is to pick 10+ wins. There’s a higher probability to win 10+.
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Caveman
Five-Star Recruit
As you pointed out, 10 does not equate to 10+. Personally, I think 10 wins is absolute best case scenario in year 2 and I'm not surprised that SOME people chose that in the poll, but I am surprised that roughly a quarter of participants did and even moreso that roughly another quarter chose 11/12 wins. I assumed the bell curve would rest lower on the graph.
So the fact that the majority (~54% currently) of those polled believe we will match or exceed my wildest team expectations is outrageous to me.
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Redux
Assistant Coach
Decoy73
Starter
Caveman’s right folks. Time to temper your expectations. This is a marathon. Not a sprint. We aren’t going from 4-8 to 10-2 in the Big 10. The right staff is in place and the culture is changing, but it needs a couple more years until we’re among the top tier, which is essentially what 10-2 is. If I’m wrong and we go 10-2 I will gladly eat crow.
The reason so many publications have already put Nebraska in their Top 25 for next year is because this team was significantly better than 4-8 last year. Where Northwestern shouldn’t have won as many as they did, Nebraska shouldn’t have lost as many as they did. By pythagorean win expectation, which is a measure of how many wins a team should have expected based solely on points scored and points allowed, both Nebraska and Northwestern were about 2 games off (6 and 7 wins, respectively). Furthermore, Nebraska did a rather poor job converting yardage to points, so it’s a little more of a shift than even that would suggest. That’s also considering the full season’s stats, not just the last half. If we consider only the back half, Nebraska is about an 8 win team.
When you consider an average second year coach improves by about 2 games, and top coaches quite a bit more, a more favorable schedule, a returning QB, and back to back quality recruiting classes, it’s not as illogical a jump as it sounds to go from 4 to 10. I’m not saying it will happen, I need to get a better idea of what the defense will be before I did that, but this is a rationale for why both local and national people have big expectations for Nebraska next year.
When you consider an average second year coach improves by about 2 games, and top coaches quite a bit more, a more favorable schedule, a returning QB, and back to back quality recruiting classes, it’s not as illogical a jump as it sounds to go from 4 to 10. I’m not saying it will happen, I need to get a better idea of what the defense will be before I did that, but this is a rationale for why both local and national people have big expectations for Nebraska next year.
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TonyStalloni
All-Conference
I think we can safely say Nebraska should have won 3 more games last year. Colorado, Troy and NW were winnable. In 2019 I'll predict we start 3-0. The next 6 games will tell us what the season will be. Illinois should be improved, OSU is always a big hurdle, NW, Minnesota, Indiana and Purdue I hate to say it can all pose problems. We close with Wisconsin Maryland and Iowa. If I am optimistic and both the OL and DL improve and the D can get some turnovers we could be 9-3. On the flip side, if we have injuries at key positions given our lack of depth, we could go 6-6 as much as it grieves me to say it. I will predict we go 8-4.
funhusker
All-American
This is exactly my thoughts. I chose to vote for 10-2 because, well, that's what I'm hoping for (if not better :thumbs )
I also think every game is winnable with how they finished, but there are also 4 games that are definitely loseable (sp?) I chose losses to OSU and Wisconsin just because those are the teams that Nebraska hasn't beat in a long time...
are we still addicted to kool aid?.........huge improvement in this conference is not likely, everyone is going to be better........just like us.
7-5 or 6-6 are very likely...........8-4 would be blessing. as usual, a bit of luck could swing the results by a game
7-5 or 6-6 are very likely...........8-4 would be blessing. as usual, a bit of luck could swing the results by a game
Caveman
Five-Star Recruit
Good points. A couple games slipped through our grasp (CU, NW) and the Troy game would have been a win with Adrian, but I would argue that some of our wins could have ended differently as well- they were not convincing. The Illinois game was a shootout and may have had a different outcome if they had not gifted us 5 turnovers (we gave 2 back) and multiple dropped passes. The Minnesota game was essentially over at halftime, but we were evenly matched after they switched quarterbacks. Its hard to take much away from the MSU game due to the severe conditions. Our guys fought hard, but that game felt like a coin flip.
The yardage vs points discrepancy was frustrating, but improved throughout the season as we reduced our turnovers/penalties and our O-line developed chemistry. It took several games and personnel changes for the O-line to come together. 2019 is a new season with new faces at the skill positions and on the O-line. It's impossible to know how many turnovers or penalties the newcomers will commit. It's impossible to know the amount of time required, if any, before the O-line is able to maintain consistent execution- especially in the red zone.
There are plenty of reasons for optimism and I think we will continue to improve as team, but there are many unknowns, unproven players, and lack of depth on both sides of the ball. I would love a double digit win season, but I have my doubts.
