I think a lot of it has to do with our schedule. Has to be one of the easiest on paper for a top 25 team.
I get how some say our schedule is somewhat easier than last year but the actual difference is not that much really.
NON-CON: We drop off Akron but add S Alabama. We drop off Troy but add N. Illinois. Both those are basically a wash as they are home games. We move CU to Colorado so that suggests more difficulty. Bethune Cookman barely has a football team - that was a gimme for even 3-8 NU last year and maybe ought not even be counted.
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CONFERENCE: Swap Michigan for Indiana and Maryland for Michigan State so I concede those are certainly less daunting but there are no 'gimmes' in the Big Ten. At Purdue, at Maryland, at Minne and at Illinois. That is 4 road games versus 5 home in conference so that is a net plus of a the home field advantage of perhaps a touchdown in one game.
So, the net result is basically no significant difference in the home vs away balance.
Last year we managed to win 3 games and lost 8 (again I don't count Bethune Cookman as more than a practice). Even allowing 2 more wins due to the marginally less difficult schedule, that is only 5 wins. Colorado on the road will be a toss up in all likelyhood and should not be viewed otherwise at this point with a returning QB and WR that tore us up last year.
Finally, our opponents are not just sitting around idly while we are practiciing, lifting, and doing military special forces drills. They are recruiting, practicing, etc. as well.
It really is quite amazing to see a large majority of pundits, media and far too many fans around the country suggesting the Huskers are going to be magically transformed from a below average - at best - team into some top ten monster that may win the Big Ten championship or even remotely have a shot at the playoffs. Adrian Martinez did not perform anywhere near a Heisman like level, although he played well for a freshman on a mediocre team. How much upside room does he have to improve ? Maybe a few less fumbles and a handful of better throws and a few less sacks. The dramatic improvement simply MUST come from the rest of the team making huge strides. Realistically, how likely?
I think I've been thinking 8 wins but as I try to be realistic, our youth and inexperience will be a big handicap in some of these road games especially, 6 or 7 is a big jump from 3.