** 2022 Opponent Previews : Wisconsin (Game 11) **

BigRedBuster said:
Probably true.
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Eh ... Sam hates Bo so he tries to avoid giving Pelini any credit anywhere.

I assume he's going for more of the winning big games.  And there's some truth to that.  Although Chryst has never won a conference championship.  And has seemed to settle into more of a 9-4 pattern recently.  So I'm not sure the Bo comparison is all that far off.

 
Mavric said:
Eh ... Sam hates Bo so he tries to avoid giving Pelini any credit anywhere.

I assume he's going for more of the winning big games.  And there's some truth to that.  Although Chryst has never won a conference championship.  And has seemed to settle into more of a 9-4 pattern recently.  So I'm not sure the Bo comparison is all that far off.
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Totally agree on all points.

Another part of Wisconsin's troubles is Graham Mertz. As a high school recruit a lot of their fans thought he was going to be the QB that took them back to that 'Russell Wilson senior year' level and maybe would get them into the playoff.

The kid just hasn't handled the expectations, he panics, and makes bad decisions with his passes. He's been the biggest factor that has gotten them away from being this methodical, mistake-free machine.

 
Undone said:
Totally agree on all points.

Another part of Wisconsin's troubles is Graham Mertz. As a high school recruit a lot of their fans thought he was going to be the QB that took them back to that 'Russell Wilson senior year' level and maybe would get them into the playoff.

The kid just hasn't handled the expectations, he panics, and makes bad decisions with his passes. He's been the biggest factor that has gotten them away from being this methodical, mistake-free machine.
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I think this is a big piece, but there's more to it. Chryst's first couple years were largely successful and that was with Stave, Houston, and Hornibrook turning the ball over a lot. Outside of 2019 where Jack Coan went 18/5 TD/INT, their QBs have been pretty turnover prone but they've overcome it.

Chryst was considered pretty cutting edge with the run game, and in their losses this year the run game has been shut down outside of a late, meaningless 75 yard TD against OSU. Mertz certainly hasn't elevated them as expected, but having a good 1-2 punch in Allen/Mellusi and still not being able to run the ball effectively is pretty alarming. They wouldn't need Mertz to be the high 4-star they expected if the rest of the offense could do anything.

 
Husker in WI said:
I think this is a big piece, but there's more to it. Chryst's first couple years were largely successful and that was with Stave, Houston, and Hornibrook turning the ball over a lot. Outside of 2019 where Jack Coan went 18/5 TD/INT, their QBs have been pretty turnover prone but they've overcome it.

Chryst was considered pretty cutting edge with the run game, and in their losses this year the run game has been shut down outside of a late, meaningless 75 yard TD against OSU. Mertz certainly hasn't elevated them as expected, but having a good 1-2 punch in Allen/Mellusi and still not being able to run the ball effectively is pretty alarming. They wouldn't need Mertz to be the high 4-star they expected if the rest of the offense could do anything.
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Your analyses of their team is always good stuff, thank you.

Mertz has had some train wreck games, though. It would be interesting to look up comparisons of INT's to Hornibrook & Stave to Mertz. Coan was a great QB, IMO.

Because they're built for the grinding power run game they just can't do anything when that isn't working, as you mention. But then on top that Mertz just isn't the guy you want trying to throw the ball downfield to come from behind.

As I've said before I realize it's bad form for a Husker fan to talk s*** at this point...but Wisconsin looks bad right now. And the tweet by Allen about "you're not a part of this team" is amazing.

 
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Undone said:
Your analyses of their team is always good stuff, thank you.

Mertz has had some train wreck games, though. It would be interesting to look up comparisons of INT's to Hornibrook & Stave to Mertz. Coan was a great QB, IMO.

Because they're built for the grinding power run game they just can't do anything when that isn't working, as you mention. But then on top that Mertz just isn't the guy you want trying to throw the ball downfield to come from behind.

As I've said before I realize it's bad form for a Husker fan to talk s*** at this point...but Wisconsin looks bad right now. And the tweet by Allen about "you're not a part of this team" is amazing.
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Thanks! Hornibook was 47/33 in 35 games, Stave was 11/11 in 13 games under Chryst  - 9/10 the year before Chryst and 48/36 in his career. Mertz is 27/21 in 25 games as a starter. So they're all close to an INT a game, and a couple more TDs than INTs.

Mertz does look lost for sure, and clearly the team was not expecting the firing. It helps that Leonhard is loved by the locker room, but offense is their bigger problem and the OC is a new guy. They could very well rally and put together a good year, but that offense could implode too. Can't implode much worse than Saturday though - I know the Illini defense has become really good, but rushing for 2 total yards is just shocking. Even taking out sacks/scrambles it was just 24 yards.

 
Red Five said:
Counterpoint:
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Definitely the actions of a guy that wants to jump right back into the fray and figures he has enough market value that taking less money but in a lump-sum is worth it. With the amount of turnover seen now can see him landing a decent HC job in the next couple months. 

As far as Chryst's old job goes rumor is it's Leonhard's to keep if he does a solid job for the rest of the season. 

 
Mavric said:
Eh ... Sam hates Bo so he tries to avoid giving Pelini any credit anywhere.

I assume he's going for more of the winning big games.  And there's some truth to that.  Although Chryst has never won a conference championship.  And has seemed to settle into more of a 9-4 pattern recently.  So I'm not sure the Bo comparison is all that far off.
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Meh....I really don't care about who likes whom.  

The fact is, Wisconsin had a good AD that supported the program and insured the continuity of what they were successful doing. That AD is replaced and the HC, who had some pretty good success as HC, has a drop back in success and the new AD pulled the plug.  Now, it will be interesting to see if that AD goes a different direction than keeping the continuity going or not.

That sounds like a Solich situation more than a Bo situation.

 
BigRedBuster said:
Meh....I really don't care about who likes whom.  

The fact is, Wisconsin had a good AD that supported the program and insured the continuity of what they were successful doing. That AD is replaced and the HC, who had some pretty good success as HC, has a drop back in success and the new AD pulled the plug.  Now, it will be interesting to see if that AD goes a different direction than keeping the continuity going or not.

That sounds like a Solich situation more than a Bo situation.
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My point was Sam didn't give any reasoning (that I saw).  But he definitely avoids giving Bo any credit whatsoever.  So it's not surprising (to me) that he would try to point anything away from Bo.

You point out good parallels.  I think that is a good reason to compare him to Solich.  That is looking at it from a situational perspective, which isn't wrong.

Looking at it from an on-field performance perspective, it looks to me like it's probably closer to Bo.

Either are fine.  Just depends on which angle you take.

 
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