2023 CFB Locks of the Weak

JJ Husker said:
I’m sure we’ve all had our share of bad beats, half point losses and game end situations go against us. But I have to share one that, finally, went my way today.

I don’t wager much on pro ball. Usually just a little something on the games I plan to watch or matchups of interest. Today I ended up with 3 different parlay bets needing KC -2.5. That finally occurred to me when the Chiefs-Jets game was tied at 20-20 in the 4th. So being averse to losing money in my betting account, I placed a backup bet on the Jets at +3.5 to assure that worst case I would break even on the day. Well, if you watched the game, you witnessed how Mahomes smartly went down inside the 5 instead of scoring with just over a minute to go in the game. I’ve been screwed over in similar situations numerous times but not tonight. Chiefs 23 Jets 20. All 3 of my original bets KC-2.5 were good and also my backup safety bet NYJ+3.5 was made good. Anyway it made my night and my Sunday. Hit everything today.  :P
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Those are the types of days that make it seem like you have it all figured out.  I swear there are some days where I feel like I can see the final score of the game before it starts.

Of course, those days are few and far between.

 
teachercd said:
Those are the types of days that make it seem like you have it all figured out.  I swear there are some days where I feel like I can see the final score of the game before it starts.

Of course, those days are few and far between.
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Oh I never feel like I have it figured out. It was just one of those too rare luckier than s#!t days.

 
admo said:
2-1 last week

8-4 on the year

Duke +5.5 (vs Notre Dame)

IOwa -10 (vs Michigan State)

Maryland -14 (vs Indiana)

Bonus pick: 

Kansas +16.5 (at Texas)
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1-2-1 yuck

9-6-1 season total

ND late TD against Duke - bad break cost me the cover

Iowa scored 13 in 4th to win by 10 - push - what was I thinking

Maryland was the best pick - won big

Kansas without QB Daniels sucked - big lost

Liked Oregon State over Utah - didn't do it - dang it

Liked Penn State -27 over NW - didn't do it - they won by 28

Liked Oregon over Stanford - didn't do it - dang it

 
JJ Husker said:
13-6

Week 6 Picks

Purdue +2.5 at Iowa

Colorado -4 at ASU

Michigan -18.5 at Minn

Bonus

Miami -20.5 vs GaTech
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Do you put in your bets this early or do you just post them now?  I almost always wait until the day of to put them in.

Also, I like CU -4 as well.

 
JJ Husker said:
Don’t wait for too much buzz on that CU bet. :lol:  Guessing that line will move up.
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You and I are thinking alike with this one.  Hasn't move though. 

I will do my picks later in the week.  However, I do have CU -4 at Arizona State.

I don't understand Senior Vegas on this one.  ASU is 1-4 with a 3 game losing streak.  They avg 17.6 ppg (126th out of 133).  They are allowing 28.6 ppg.

CU on the other hand - with the exception of the Oregon game (that was fun!!!) has scored 45, 36, 43, and 41.  

Arizona State is not going to score 30.  CU will score 17-24 per half.  It just screams "Lay the points and Give me teh Buffaloes"  

Which I will do  chuckleshuffle

 
This game is so juicy...  Alabama - 1 at Texas A&M in college station at 230pm.  :hellloooo  

As much as I would love to see the Aggies win this game, the line feels like a red flag, and that Bama will Roll Tide in this one by 7-10-14-21 etc.  

I am not betting this one.  But if I had to put 100 on it, I would leave all emotions out and take the Tide.  And I like A&M as a fan, and will root for them instead of dropping coins on it.  

A few other games that pop out - one I do like, one I do not like:

Michigan -19.5 at Minnesota.  Once upon a time a good rival, and occasionally still is.  Wolverines will win big.  I don't think Minny has enough offense to score 17 in this game.  And Michigan can score 40 for sure.  I like Michigan right now.

Maryland (5-0!) at OSU - the Buckeyes are also 19.5 favorites (just like above).  Can OSU lead by 10 in the first half, and outscore Maryland 10 in the 2nd half?  Yeah, it's that simple.  Rooting for Maryland but staying away from this.  Maryland is pretty good offensively and has a strong passing game.  Would not be shocked if this was super close or possible upset win by the Terps.  But instead of money on it, will just watch as a fan.  I don't like this game.

 
admo said:
You and I are thinking alike with this one.  Hasn't move though. 

I will do my picks later in the week.  However, I do have CU -4 at Arizona State.

I don't understand Senior Vegas on this one.  ASU is 1-4 with a 3 game losing streak.  They avg 17.6 ppg (126th out of 133).  They are allowing 28.6 ppg.

CU on the other hand - with the exception of the Oregon game (that was fun!!!) has scored 45, 36, 43, and 41.  

Arizona State is not going to score 30.  CU will score 17-24 per half.  It just screams "Lay the points and Give me teh Buffaloes"  

Which I will do  chuckleshuffle
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Yeah of all the lines this week that one seems really strange. But that’s usually when I get screwed  :lol:

 
JJ Husker said:
Yeah of all the lines this week that one seems really strange. But that’s usually when I get screwed  :lol:
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Same here!  

I had a neighbor that got involved with a big time bookie (Winning PIcks), to pay for his services who to bet on.  The bookie wanted him to pay $3k to $5k per game, because he was going to get LOCKS.  After one week my neighbor was down $10k lol (it's funny now, I think).  He then got him to accept $1k per game, with 3 games to bet on ($3k total).  The funniest thing he told me was that when the bookie was right about the bet, the bookie would call him and say "See!  I told you!".  But those other 8 times he lost the bookie never called and said "my bad... Sorry... Next time we'll win".  Not one word.  It was a total joke that my neighbor got suckered into.  I just wished he didn't wait until he was out $25K before he noticed that and finally walking away.  

I understand you have to bet big to win big (with vegas & with scratch off lottos), but sheesh.  I got nervous when he was freaking out over a Pacers/Hawks NBA game on a Tuesday night.  That's when he told me how much was on the line.  The spread was -4 and the Pacers were up 7-8 all game but won by 3, so he lost.  Crazy times, glad I never got that involved

 
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That bama line has been moving because there is some chatter that the Tide QB might be hurt.

Either way, you are either betting on AM to get their second loss or Bama to get their second loss...in the first 6 weeks.  I know who I like.

CU -4 still seems odd.  But I also can't see a bad team like CU being favored by more on the road.  Dudes that do betting podcasts say to not overreact from one week to the next, which makes sense but...this line still seems weird.

I suppose it is safe to say that CU seems more like a 1 win team than a 5 win team.  That comeback vs USC was really more smoke and mirrors than anything else.  If USC would have just decided to run in the second half that game probably ends up 42-21 or 49-21, something like that.  But would that really change this -4?

Who knows.  I know if I bet the game I am taking CU and not ASU

 
9-6-1 on the year

CU -4 (at ASU)

Oregon State -7 (at California)

Michigan -18.5 (at Minnesota)

*Colorado line dipped down to -3  :hellloooo   

And even though I am taking CU as a Lock of the Weak, I will still be pulling for Arizona State to win.  I definitely do not want CU to win by 1 or 2 or 3 or 4.  

I like this Oregon State team, big emotional win last week (clobbering Utah) usually means a lame performance the following week, and Cal is pretty good so far.  But I am bucking the emotional big win trend and staying with the Beavers.

I know Minnesota is a night game, and they can have some mysterious magic to keep this a ball game.  Don't care if they do.  Give me JJ McCarthy playing a full game and the Wolverines will cover.  But also, this Michigan team is probably the best team in the nation all-around (Off & Def + Coaching).  Definitely top 3 for sure.   

 
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