Not necessarily. Could just be a repeat of 2012. If you'd looked at their schedule that year ahead of the season, you would've said it's pretty tough. But almost everyone on their schedule ended up being down that year, giving them a much easier path to the championship game than it initially looked like. And then of course they played Alabama and got their asses kicked.
If Notre Dame had been in a conference, they would've had to play a championship game against whoever rose to the top of the conference that year, regardless of the other teams on the schedule being down. And that's the thing: a conference championship is pretty much always gonna be against a decently tough opponent, no getting lucky if other teams on your schedule happen to suck that year.
I understand your thinking on this. However, let's look into it.
College schools / University Teams self-impose their punishment from violations because the NCAA no longer gets involved with it. The NCAA is not forcing forfeits or laying down heavy sanctions that will impact a school with severity. Not like before.
I agree an Independent Conference Championship Game would help ideally, because it did help Boise State get a bye week into the playoffs. And that was crazy thinking by smart people. But not many Universities can afford to become independent. Is that Notre Dame's fault? I don't think so.
When the schedule was put together in advance, it is not ND's fault or problem when a team on paper sucks the year they play them. Or if a team goes from average to great by the time they play. However, you typically know who is pretty good when scheduling.
I don't understand the heavy push-back about ND being Independent and not tied to a conference.
In fact, since you brought up "If".... If Nebraska was Independent, could create their own 12 game schedule, including negotiating the kickoff time, and play every game on local TV for 3 decades - ABC (instead of NBC for ND) - I think every Nebraskan would be in love with that and see no problem with it. And every Nebraskan fan would not think about a need to change and join a conference with the Big Ten, SEC, ACC or Big 12. While every conference would be dying to add the Huskers.
I sometimes wonder if people wish ND could be placed into a conference to identify there place in college sports/football. If they are part of the B1G, some would say Go Irish! They make the conference stronger. Or perhaps an extra reason to hate them (they suck, they play for the SEC or Big 12 or ACC). It's compartmentalizing.
But, since they are not in a conference you witness a jealousy and hate coming from so many college football fans across the landscape, and even punishment from the NCAA playoff committee (No bye weeks ever or Top 4 seeding without being in a conference). Some hate them because they are a private school (just like BYU, Boston College, USC, TCU, Baylor, SMU, Georgetown, etc, etc). Some older fans hated ND because of Lou Holtz coaching them. I can understand that. Because I had a very difficult time when Brian Kelly was their coach, and I always thought he was a fraud and slightly above average coach. Nothing great though. It was a hard time for me.
And as for conference championship games, look no further then the Big Ten with title games from the "Seriously, are you kidding me?" department. It has not exactly been an evenly matched championship game year after year.
Michigan vs Iowa
Michigan vs Purdue
Michigan vs Iowa
Ohio State vs Northwestern
Ohio State vs Wisconsin
Ohio State vs Northwestern
Ohio State vs Wisconsin
Penn State vs Wisconsin
Michigan State vs Iowa
Ohio State vs Wisconsin
Ohio State vs Michigan State
Nebraska vs Wisconsin
Michigan State vs Wisconsin
Notre Dame may have won the same amount of big ten titles if they had been a replacement for OSU or Michigan. You could make a case for about 15 teams across the country that finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th place that would have done as well as OSU and Michigan in the B1G CG.
