2024 Election Prediction Thread

[Dr. Strangelove]

With the 2024 Presidential election right on the doorstep, I thought it would be interesting to see what the predictions are from board members.

The state of the race by election experts and modeling practitioners essentially have the race as a tossup, a true coin flip where each candidate has a path to victory. Harris has showed strength in quality polls, while Trump has done well in early voting, at least where party ID is tracked.

My prediction is... bullish for Trump. It's not going to be a surprise that I've long predicted a Trump victory. I'm going to play it safe and assume Trump wins all the swing states and wins the electoral college 312-226, which I think is the most likely outcome for whoever the winning candidate is. I think Harris wins the popular vote by ~1.8%.

What is your prediction? What say you? 

I had a very strong hunch that this might take place, I feel pretty confident my electoral college prediction will hold, but I will be off on the popular vote totals, as the margin will certainly not be Harris winning it by 1.8%. Trump, actually, may wind up with a small popular vote victory but it's too early to tell.

So, what lessons will each party take from the election?

One thing that I knew deep down but thought might end up mattering was fundraising. Harris out fundraised Trump significantly, hired a massive phone bank/canvassing team which traditional political wonks think is the best way to turnout voters. It turns out that none of that matters. Trump barely even hired consultants in key states like Wisconsin, and they had practically zero "ground game" to knock on doors. I think that Democrats are still going to spend money on this in the future, because they are always going to raise a lot of money and they don't have much else to spend it on, but even I'm surprised that these efforts resulted in almost no benefit.

Ultimately, politics in America is simply overly intertwined with identity. Political affiliation is extremely strong, and self identified Republicans/Democrats rarely change their vote. The political environment is largely determined by forces outside the control of campaigns, and is decided by voters with low information and vote based on the political environment. Much like how Obama was destined to win in 2008 because of the state of the country, a Republican candidate was destined to win in 2024 for similar reasons. 

What lessons do you think politicians will take from tonight's results?

 

[commando]

What lessons do you think politicians will take from tonight's results?

lie and insult as much as possible if you want to win

edit to add....get russian propaganda on your side.  

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

lie and insult as much as possible if you want to win

Negativity works really well. Ultimately though, I don't know if there's much we can draw from tonight other than:

The mixing of identity and politics is stronger than ever, and that political outcomes at the Presidential level hinges largely on factors that sway low information voters.

 

[Mierin]

I don’t even know. 

I just hope I’m lucky enough to survive the trials and tribulations to come, and I think the best case scenario to wake people up is for the bandaid to be ripped off by Trump getting his way very quickly, especially where his economy and tax plans are concerned. 

At this point I believe the bad ideas have to actually occur for any major shift to happen. 

 

[RedDenver]

The Dems continue to fail to learn the lesson that they need to run primaries even against incumbents. And that uncharismatic candidates almost always lose. Harris did better than I thought she would, but ultimately she's a bad presidential candidate because she has little to no personality.

 

[Mierin]

The Dems continue to fail to learn the lesson that they need to run primaries even against incumbents. And that uncharismatic candidates almost always lose. Harris did better than I thought she would, but ultimately she's a bad presidential candidate because she has little to no personality.

I haven’t even heard the CA guy talk… does he have one? I wonder if they tried to get him to run. I felt Harris would be a mistake if they picked her but she did grow on me throughout August and I think Biden would have done far worse. 

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

I don’t even know. 

I just hope I’m lucky enough to survive the trials and tribulations to come, and I think the best case scenario to wake people up is for the bandaid to be ripped off by Trump getting his way very quickly, especially where his economy and tax plans are concerned. 

At this point I believe the bad ideas have to actually occur for any major shift to happen. 

You're right in that the voters who decided this election really didn't know about Trump's policy proposals. All they know is that he was President, times were pretty okay, and that things are more expensive now.

Trump will have very low approval rates this time next year, and what will really matter is if they actually try some of the insane things he proposes. If he does, he'll be extremely unpopular. But without worrying about a re-election, he may well do it. I personally hope he does.

I haven’t even heard the CA guy talk… does he have one? I wonder if they tried to get him to run. I felt Harris would be a mistake if they picked her but she did grow on me throughout August and I think Biden would have done far worse. 

You may be right, ultimately I think that the results for Trump were so decisive that no other candidate would've really mattered. She raised a lot of money and spent it to no effect, she consolidated the party almost immediately, and she did what she could.

I do think keeping the Biden campaign team may have been a mistake, as they were leading their candidate down a path of a massive loss. But ultimately I think the results are as simple as: Incumbent governments in charge during inflation are deeply unpopular. They've lost nearly every election across all the Western democracies. Republicans won today in spite of Trump, not because of him. Had they nominated a different candidate, their landslide would've been even larger simply because the environment favored that outcome.

 

[Born N Bled Red]

Certain states still won't vote for women.

 

[PasstheDamnBallGuy]

I don’t even know. 

I just hope I’m lucky enough to survive the trials and tribulations to come, and I think the best case scenario to wake people up is for the bandaid to be ripped off by Trump getting his way very quickly, especially where his economy and tax plans are concerned. 

At this point I believe the bad ideas have to actually occur for any major shift to happen. 

The problem is I really doubt this will change people. The overall concepts of trickle down economics are still what large parts of America think work no matter how long it's been making things worse. The income gap will grow larger and so will the power dynamic that comes with it and the access to information. A billionaire bought one of the largest sources of online information and used it as a propaganda arm and is now going to have unlimited access to even more government subsidies.

 

[commando]

welcome to the russian style oligarch system.   

 

[Mierin]

The problem is I really doubt this will change people. The overall concepts of trickle down economics are still what large parts of America think work no matter how long it's been making things worse. The income gap will grow larger and so will the power dynamic that comes with it and the access information. A billionaire bought one of the largest sources of online information and used it as a propaganda arm and is not going to have unlimited access to even more government subsidies.

If Trump actually implemented his tax/economic plans (I think it's unlikely he will be able to), it would change people. Things would get far more awful than they have been in a long, long time, possibly ever since the country's founding. I'm not talking about whatever he's said about lowering taxes, or that he would lower taxes on the rich. I'm talking about him stating he wants to get rid of income tax and do only tariffs.

And Musk having access to more subsidies isn't at all what I'm worried about with him.

 

[PasstheDamnBallGuy]

If Trump actually implemented his tax/economic plans (I think it's unlikely he will be able to), it would change people. Things would get far more awful than they have been in a long, long time, possibly ever since the country's founding.

The thing is he could make everything worse and give people a $500 unique tax credit and people wouldn't do the actual math and see they have less money. You are correct that things would get far more awful but they would just focus on the smallest thing that is better and then get upset that a trans person exists and thats enough. 

 

[Mierin]

The thing is he could make everything worse and give people a $500 unique tax credit and people wouldn't do the actual math and see they have less money. You are correct that things would get far more awful but they would just focus on the smallest thing that is better and then get upset that a trans person exists and thats enough. 

I really don't think that would obfuscate how bad things would get. But I also don't think we'll find out. His plan won't happen and we'll be stuck with similar Republican candidates for the rest of our lives and 51/49 flip flopping vote margins. If we're lucky.

I can't see anything changing that other than a disaster like him getting his way with his plan or there being a coup.

 

[PasstheDamnBallGuy]

I really don't think that would obfuscate how bad things would get. But I also don't think we'll find out. His plan won't happen and we'll be stuck with similar Republican candidates for the rest of our lives and 51/49 flip flopping vote margins. If we're lucky.

I really do hope you are right and I really don't know. Just hard to trust people after they elected someone who literally quoted neo Nazi lies during a debate. 

 

[Mierin]

I really do hope you are right and I really don't know. Just hard to trust people after they elected someone who literally quoted neo Nazi lies during a debate. 

Ya, it's crazy. But we lucked into be born here in this situation in the first place. It was inevitable that things went dumb eventually.