** 2024 Previews: Bill Connelly/SP+ Big Ten & Nebraska Preview **

SP+ gives NU a:

0.6% chance of winning the B1G

0.4% chance of winning 11+ regular season games

85.2% chance of winning 6+ regular season games

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Red Five said:
SP+ gives NU a:

0.6% chance of winning the B1G

0.4% chance of winning 11+ regular season games

85.2% change of winning 6+ regular season games
Click to expand...
200.webp


 
Red Five said:
SP+ gives NU a:

0.6% chance of winning the B1G

0.4% chance of winning 11+ regular season games

85.2% change of winning 6+ regular season games
Click to expand...


A very, very important disclaimer here.

A team with a half dozen or so consecutive losing seasons that you're hoping has a breakout year 2 season under a new coach is just about the hardest thing for this type of model to accurately project. There are a lot of reasons to project Nebraska to have that breakout season, which is why we're seeing that all over the place, but a data driven system that relies on prior seasons data for the bulk of it's information is, not surprisingly, going to align more closely with those prior seasons.

Midseason, when most of this prior season data gets filtered out, will give us a much better indicator.

 
Red Five said:
I didn't realize Hill was this good last year.
Click to expand...
Didn't Hartzog take his spot basically last year? Then he came back to play a little later? This is one that feels like cherry picked stats versus actually watching film.  Remember the pick against Illinois he had where he didn't have to move and the QB missed the throw by 15 yards?

 
runningblind said:
Didn't Hartzog take his spot basically last year? Then he came back to play a little later? This is one that feels like cherry picked stats versus actually watching film.  Remember the pick against Illinois he had where he didn't have to move and the QB missed the throw by 15 yards?
Click to expand...


I don't recall that.  Wasn't Hartzog primarily a safety last year?  I know Hill had issues in 2022 (switching to offense halfway through the year), but I think he was pretty solid all year last season.

According to PFF (which has its flaws), Hill was our highest rated overall DB (85.9, next highest was Brown at 82.9, Hartzog was 67.3).  Hill was also our highest rated DB in coverage (87.1, next highest was Brown at 84.5, Hartzog was 64.3).

 
runningblind said:
Didn't Hartzog take his spot basically last year? Then he came back to play a little later? This is one that feels like cherry picked stats versus actually watching film.  Remember the pick against Illinois he had where he didn't have to move and the QB missed the throw by 15 yards?
Click to expand...


No.  Hartzog kept getting burned at CB so he was moved to S.

 
Red Five said:
I don't recall that.  Wasn't Hartzog primarily a safety last year?  I know Hill had issues in 2022 (switching to offense halfway through the year), but I think he was pretty solid all year last season.

According to PFF (which has its flaws), Hill was our highest rated overall DB (85.9, next highest was Brown at 82.9, Hartzog was 67.3).  Hill was also our highest rated DB in coverage (87.1, next highest was Brown at 84.5, Hartzog was 64.3).
Click to expand...


Mavric said:
No.  Hartzog kept getting burned at CB so he was moved to S.
Click to expand...
That's right. Wrong guy in my head.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top