I think the fact that TCU just accepted a bid to join the Big Least shows the Big 12-2 is doomed. Why would they accept that nod if they had a snowball's chance of joining the Texas 12? They clearly would not, if for no other reason than the cost in travel for their Olympic sports. Clearly TCU has information that leads them to believe they will not get into the Big 12, OR they have info leading them to believe the Big 12 will dissolve soon.
This deal between Texas and ESPN is huge, people. Do not discount this situation in the grand scheme of things. If Texas is guaranteed a Notre Dame deal (an automatic berth into the BCS if they're in the BCS top eight), all they have to do is schedule nine patsies and two decent teams, win their two games and demolish the patsies, they're golden with a guaranteed $15 million from ESPN and another $9 million from a BCS game - which they would not split. That's a cool $24 million without hassles per year, which they would have made four of the past six years.
Texas is in the driver's seat, big time. The rest of the Texettes can rattle their sabers all they want - the Whorns will laugh all the way to the bank regardless of what the others do. That's the kind of leverage Texas brings to the table in every negotiation with the dregs of this conference, and
not one of the others brings the same. Without Texas the Big 12 has marquee Oklahoma, Big Money A&M (but rarely a contender, lately), Oklahoma State which is locally known but not a national draw, and a Tech squad that screwed themselves by firing Leach. Missouri is on-again/off-again, but rarely a contender to be much of anything, and KSU, KU, Baylor and ISU are afterthoughts.
It is beyond stupid the way Missouri, Baylor, A&M, KU, KSU and ISU have let themselves get screwed here. But the most criminally stupid school in this whole fiasco is Oklahoma, a non-AAU school whose national appeal is minimal due to academic shortcomings (they're ranked 52nd amongst Public Universities by
US News & World Report). That ranking, combined with their failure to gain AAU membership, makes Oklahoma's position extremely difficult in a conference without Texas. They will not gain admission into the Big Ten (AAU membership required) and they will not be asked to join the SEC (can't remember why, but this came out with expansion talks last year). They MAY go to the Pac-12, but if they do that'll trigger Armageddon and half the remainder of the Big 12 will get left outside looking in anyway. Oklahoma
needs a strong conference, while Texas doesn't. Knowing this, they still threw their lot in with the Whorns rather than their traditional brethren to the North, and frankly, the Whorns don't care.
Now more than ever I see the Big 12 crumbling, and I see several schools suffering for it. And they have only themselves to blame.