A closer look at Chinander's defenses...by the numbers

[Mierin]

I guess my overall point was/is: I think it is slightly unfair to just look at defensive rankings without any context.  Also, I think that average yards and points per game has been increasing over the years.  I (or someone) would have to do a stat analysis to see if that is true, but that's my hypothesis. 

For example, the #1 ranked defense in PPG in 2008 would be lower than what it is in 2018.

And the #1 defense in PPG would be lower in 1998 than it was in 2008.

Again, without doing any research, that is my hypothesis...

It still isn’t relevant... each year his defenses were compared to other defenses that year... think of it as a percentile. In the post you quoted he isn’t comparing PPG now to PPG 20 years ago. He’s comparing PPG within the same season vs other teams in the same season. Chinander’s defenses have been worse than > 50% of all teams within the same season.

I haven’t read every post, but has anyone mentioned yards given up by Chinander compared to previous years? When people compare rankings, it’s irrelevant how prolific offenses have gotten because all defenses are facing prolific offenses.

The only context that I can see mattering is that the offenses on the teams he coaches for were uptempo.

 

[Hayseed]

I am a big believer in looking at data when looking at bringing in new members of the coaching staff. When Diaco was hired in early 2017 I was pretty critical of the hire as the data did not paint a good picture of his track record outside of one standout season at Notre Dame in 2012. I was also skeptical of Frost's selection of Chinander given what the data showed, but I was willing to give Chinander the benefit of the doubt. In my mind having a dominant defense is more important to becoming a championship team than having a stellar offense. Here is a quick look at where the last 5 national champions finished in Team Defense.

2017-Alabama finished 1st

2016-Clemson finished 15th

2015-Alabama finished 3rd

2014-Ohio State finished 29th

2013-Florida State finished 7th

Now here are the finishes as an assistant in D1 football.

2010-Oregon finished 36th

2011-Oregon finished 96th

2012-Oregon finished 50th

2013-Went to NFL for one season

2014-Oregon finished 102nd

2015-Oregon finished 115th

2016-UCF finished 46th

2017-UCF finished 91st

2018-Nebraska is 70th

So the defensive philosophy Chin learned under at Oregon had one top 40 finish but spent most seasons in the bottom half of D1 defenses. His 3 seasons as a DC at UCF and Nebraska put him around 70th in D1.

I understand Frost has a long history with Chinander, but I think he needs to take a step back and assess whether his defensive background is what is needed to get Nebraska back to competing for championships.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense/sort/totalYards

Those numbers look horrible. How did we go from McBride to this?

 

[Making Chimichangas]

It still isn’t relevant... each year his defenses were compared to other defenses that year... think of it as a percentile. In the post you quoted he isn’t comparing PPG now to PPG 20 years ago. He’s comparing PPG within the same season vs other teams in the same season. Chinander’s defenses have been worse than > 50% of all teams within the same season.

I haven’t read every post, but has anyone mentioned yards given up by Chinander compared to previous years? When people compare rankings, it’s irrelevant how prolific offenses have gotten because all defenses are facing prolific offenses.

The only context that I can see mattering is that the offenses on the teams he coaches for were uptempo.

OP is talking about Chinander's defenses compared to other defenses that year...true.  And that was my misunderstanding because I didn't get what OP was saying.  Apologies.

However, OP still doesn't account for the fact that not every team plays the same schedule.  Not every team plays every opponent under the exact same circumstances in a given year.  Injuries, suspensions, player motivation/focus all fluctuate week to week within a any given season.  

Also, OP's post doesn't really take into account how Chinander's defenses arrived at their rankings.  

For example, a team is up 45-10 on an opponent with 7 minutes remaining in the 4th Q.  That team can either leave the starters in and probably preserve the score of 45-10 or they can sub in #2 and #3 players to get experience.  In which case, the opponent with 10 might score 14-17 additional points making the final 45-24 which skews the defensive numbers and makes it seem not as good.

I dunno, perhaps I am grasping at straws because I want so desperately for Nebraska to finally have the right coaches in place and get that continuity with our coaching staff we so desperately need.  :dunno

 

[Mavric]

Here’s a tip for his defense: maybe play your best players with the game on the line. Mo Barry said in his postgame interview he was not in on the last NW drive and that he doesnt know why but he trusts his coaches decision. WTH! You have your best leader and best defensive player riding the pine with the game on the line? Inexcusable and indefensible. Not sure what personnel was on the field that drive but if MB was sitting im sure some of our other better defenders were sitting also. 

I love me some Mo Barry.  But I don't really remember him making many plays in pass defense.  Not sure what his responsibilities are supposed to be but he hasn't done much.  He has one sack and one pass break up all year.  And he wasn't getting to the QB yesterday.  So perhaps he's a great run defender but there are other guys who are better in pass coverage.

 

[Making Chimichangas]

I love me some Mo Barry.  But I don't really remember him making many plays in pass defense.  Not sure what his responsibilities are supposed to be but he hasn't done much.  He has one sack and one pass break up all year.  And he wasn't getting to the QB yesterday.  So perhaps he's a great run defender but there are other guys who are better in pass coverage.

I dunno...I don't think we have anyone good in pass coverage.  

:lol:

:facepalm:

 

[Huskers93-97]

I think sacrificing defense to support the offense is stupid. I think you have the best defensive scheme to stop the other team from scoring and getting first downs. Seriously. It’s not rocket science. Saying oh our scheme just tries to get turnovers is dumb. If your defense is good and forces a 3 and out- how is that not as good as a turnover. The faster you get the opposing offense off the field gives our offense another possession. The turnover defense just sounds like a cop out for coaching s#!tty defense. 

Good check for those of you good at research. Look at some of the best defensive units the last 5 years. Those teams are good at not letting the other team score or gain first downs/yards.  How do those teams compare to Oregon and UCF In getting turnovers? I bet they get just as many and if not I bet their offenses get the same or more possessions due to more punts by the opposing offense.

 

[HuskerNation1]

I think sacrificing defense to support the offense is stupid. I think you have the best defensive scheme to stop the other team from scoring and getting first downs. Seriously. It’s not rocket science. Saying oh our scheme just tries to get turnovers is dumb. If your defense is good and forces a 3 and out- how is that not as good as a turnover. The faster you get the opposing offense off the field gives our offense another possession. The turnover defense just sounds like a cop out for coaching s#!tty defense. 

Good check for those of you good at research. Look at some of the best defensive units the last 5 years. Those teams are good at not letting the other team score or gain first downs/yards.  How do those teams compare to Oregon and UCF In getting turnovers? I bet they get just as many and if not I bet their offenses get the same or more possessions due to more punts by the opposing offense.

Well said. It feels like some want to use the up tempo style as an excuse for playing poor defense. Some of the best championship teams over the past couple decades were dominant on both sides of the ball, and that should really be Frosts long-term goal. I think he has a good long-term offensive approach but I think changes are needed on the defensive approach. If he and Chin are open-minded they can work together to change things up.

 

[DrunkOffPunch]

2017-UCF finished 91st

That was not a bad defense.

 

[BIG ERN]

I am a big believer in looking at data when looking at bringing in new members of the coaching staff. When Diaco was hired in early 2017 I was pretty critical of the hire as the data did not paint a good picture of his track record outside of one standout season at Notre Dame in 2012. I was also skeptical of Frost's selection of Chinander given what the data showed, but I was willing to give Chinander the benefit of the doubt. In my mind having a dominant defense is more important to becoming a championship team than having a stellar offense. Here is a quick look at where the last 5 national champions finished in Team Defense.

2017-Alabama finished 1st

2016-Clemson finished 15th

2015-Alabama finished 3rd

2014-Ohio State finished 29th

2013-Florida State finished 7th

Now here are the finishes as an assistant in D1 football.

2010-Oregon finished 36th

2011-Oregon finished 96th

2012-Oregon finished 50th

2013-Went to NFL for one season

2014-Oregon finished 102nd

2015-Oregon finished 115th

2016-UCF finished 46th

2017-UCF finished 91st

2018-Nebraska is 70th

So the defensive philosophy Chin learned under at Oregon had one top 40 finish but spent most seasons in the bottom half of D1 defenses. His 3 seasons as a DC at UCF and Nebraska put him around 70th in D1.

I understand Frost has a long history with Chinander, but I think he needs to take a step back and assess whether his defensive background is what is needed to get Nebraska back to competing for championships.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense/sort/totalYards

Total defense can be a pretty misleading stat. UCF in 2017 only gave up 25.3 ppg - their offense was the best in the nation in scoring and teams had a lot of extra possessions because of it. If you really think they were 91st you never watched them play. 

 

[HuskerNation1]

Total defense can be a pretty misleading stat. UCF in 2017 only gave up 25.3 ppg - their offense was the best in the nation in scoring and teams had a lot of extra possessions because of it. If you really think they were 91st you never watched them play. 

I did watch them play and believe they had some really good players on defense. With that said against the 4 ranked teams they played in 2017 they gave up over 34 points a game.  Some have said that is not a bad defense....my point in this thread is that Frost should be seeking to establish a Dominant defense....not one deemed "not bad" or "good enough" as long as the offense scores a ton of points. 

 

[dvdcrr]

Total defense can be a pretty misleading stat. UCF in 2017 only gave up 25.3 ppg - their offense was the best in the nation in scoring and teams had a lot of extra possessions because of it. If you really think they were 91st you never watched them play. 

Traditionally an elite defense ( in American football) yields about 12 ppg.  Would you say then that opponents of UCF got about twice the traditional amount of posessions to work with?Just asking, not trying to make a point.

 

[BIG ERN]

Traditionally an elite defense ( in American football) yields about 12 ppg.  Would you say then that opponents of UCF got about twice the traditional amount of posessions to work with?Just asking, not trying to make a point.

We will never have a defense that holds teams to 12 ppg under Frost, and if we somehow did we would have a NC to show for it. We need to get around 20 to be elite since I feel at that point our offense will be light years ahead what it is now. 

 

[SouthLincoln Husker]

We will never have a defense that holds teams to 12 ppg under Frost, and if we somehow did we would have a NC to show for it. We need to get around 20 to be elite since I feel at that point our offense will be light years ahead what it is now. 

Agree!   Here is where the numbers are skewed.  Frost wants to run a fast pace offense that strikes fast.  This puts the defense on the field a lot with very little rest, which requires depth.  Currently, we do not have enough talent on defense to field the first string.

 

[soup]

As someone requested earlier in the thread to switch schemes up.  Chin did this on the last drive.  He switched to a Dime or Nickel defense.  And in doing so Mo Barry comes out on that defense.  That is why.

Can't complain about him not switching up schemes, and then complain about him not playing the best defenders.  Some schemes require different personal.  And that is Nebraska's biggest problem right now.  The Jimmies and Joes are not even close to the level they need to be to make the X's and O's even remotely work.

 

[LaunchCode]

As someone requested earlier in the thread to switch schemes up.  Chin did this on the last drive.  He switched to a Dime or Nickel defense.  And in doing so Mo Barry comes out on that defense.  That is why.

Can't complain about him not switching up schemes, and then complain about him not playing the best defenders.  Some schemes require different personal.  And that is Nebraska's biggest problem right now.  The Jimmies and Joes are not even close to the level they need to be to make the X's and O's even remotely work.

We have players all over the field who had multiple D-1 offers.  Learning a new defense and how everyone fits and works together inside of it takes time.  That we should all understand. 

N'western rushed for 175 yards per game last year.  This year it's only 70 yards a game.  They could cry about not having the Jims and Joes to rush the ball.  I've not heard a single word from Fitz after a loss claiming his team "doesn't look like the other team".  They've gone ahead and recognized they can't effectively run like usual and found another way to get it done instead.  They've buckled down and completely changed their offensive identity to win games.  Isn't that good coaching, doing what's necessary even when it's not what you feel comfortable with.

What I don't understand, and was very disappointed in, was the Wisconsin post game comments.  If we have to look like Wisconsin, or UM, or tOSU to beat them then we might as well wait until we've recruited a few top 15 classes before we expect anything of these coaches.  If that's SF's mindset, and it's hard to see how it's not based on his post game comments, the players hear that too and will keep living up to the expectation their HC has set for them.  You can't tell the players during the week or pregame they can go out and win and compete with anyone and then turn around and tell the media post game the players don't stack up with the other team. 

Whether that has some truth to it or not, you always build your players up and convince them they are better than whoever they're facing.  Until that happens it looks like we'll need a team full of blue chip players for our coaches to believe the players are good enough for them to coach to wins.