A lot of fans always forget the 1/3 rule

[uberism]

1/3 will become starters

1/3 will become contributors

1/3 will never see the field, medical redshirt, transfer, etc

2018 class (not a real class due to the time and job limits):  23 commits 

7 are starters or in some games back up someone else, but mostly 7 start. So this fits into the 1/3 rule. 

There are 2 that are bench riders. It's time to tell them to seek playing time at another school. 

1 that contributes and 1 other that is behind older players and likely will never become a starter

14 not on the team anymore. This is higher than the 1/3 rule. 

2019 class:

5 are starters. Next year that will likely become double digits

I think it is 3 no longer in the program with one that is now in the NFL

Several are going to be two deep players next year

2020 class:

2 are starters, some could argue 3 with Mills injury. Should be 4 starters next year. 

7 will be contributors

Fans will list a bunch of names no longer in the program, but outside of the 2018 class, the 2019 class and the 2020 class are already trending correctly for the 1/3 ratio. It will take another two classes for things to "smooth out" and the normal roster rules for the 1/3 will be in place. 

I know fans want the roster fixed TODAY, but it will be two more classes before it gets to that point. 

For the 2021 class, I can see immediate contributors at TE and DB. 

 

[Decoy73]

I'd be OK with 2/3 contributing in some meaningful way.  That seems about right.  I recall Barry Alvarez saying that he essentially went .500 in recruiting over his career at Wisconsin with just half the recruits panning out (paraphrasing).  I'm sure some of his "bad" half contributed in some way though.

 

[admo]

After a game, why do some threads feel like it's 1/3 cough syrup, 1/3 alcohol, 1/3 shotguns. 

Let's fire everyone and start Smothers.

 

[Mavric]

I'd be OK with 2/3 contributing in some meaningful way.  That seems about right.  I recall Barry Alvarez saying that he essentially went .500 in recruiting over his career at Wisconsin with just half the recruits panning out (paraphrasing).  I'm sure some of his "bad" half contributed in some way though.

Yeah, I think 50% is closer to the number.  Probably depending on how much contribution is needed to be above the line.

 

[uberism]

I'd be OK with 2/3 contributing in some meaningful way.  That seems about right.  I recall Barry Alvarez saying that he essentially went .500 in recruiting over his career at Wisconsin with just half the recruits panning out (paraphrasing).  I'm sure some of his "bad" half contributed in some way though.

Yeah, it tends to be pretty close to that. There are only 11 starting spots on each side of the ball for an 85 man roster. 

To me, I think the slight adjustments in recruiting need to be less emphasis on Florida and more emphasis on getting into Missouri and Texas. 

When you study the rosters of Wisconsin and Iowa, their base is more Big Ten footprint than it is guys from the coasts. What I am not saying is to not recruit those places, but rather get better at landing the best talent that is closer to home that will have a better return rate. 

Benhart - MN

Piper - NE

Jurgens - NE

Fidone - IA

Reimer - NE

Allen - NE

Betts - NE

Stoll - CO

You guys will get the point. If we try to bring in 4 guys from Alabama, 4 guys from Georgia, and 5 guys from Florida, it's going to lead to a lot of busts. I think the smarter move will be to take only 1 or 2 guys from Florida and really make sure they want to be at Lincoln. Scott is from the Orlando area and not Miami and watch him become a very good player while the ones from Miami are all gone by the time the 2021 class signs. 

2 a year from Alabama, 1 from Florida, 2 from Georgia.....I think those are the numbers to hit at and then get the best talent we can in Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, New Jersey, Missouri, Texas, hawaii, IL, and those types of states and not spend much time in Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, and those type of states. 

 

[Huskers93-97]

I would agree our top talent needs to come from somewhere else so they stay on the team. If 1/3 will be starters. We need that 1/3 to be the 4 stars we recruited. 

 

[skersfan]

I don't think geographic area is the answer.  It is the kid you recruit.  

I was a Marine recruiter for 8 years, in the field.  The Marine Corps success meter is not the number you put in the Marine Corps, it is the overall attrition rate.  Meaning the number you put in that successfully completes basic training, MOS training and promotion record.  Each Marine is tracked to their recruiter for four years.  (This was a long time ago, so may be different now).  Initially you are graded by enlistments, but promotions above E-6 your attrition rate played a much more important part.  Meaning what you put in the Corps, made it and the Marine Corps was more successful for that enlistment.  IE, you did your job the way it was supposed to be done.

Stars are not the only part, is what I am saying.  The kid has to have the heart of a lion.  He has to want to compete from day one.  Not expect to be given what ever he thinks he deserves for past success.  Each day has to be his best, on and on.

I have said for ever, we do not have the talent that the major programs do.  You used to see it on the field, lack of effort, lack of concern for the game.  Lack of concern for the offense if you played defense and the opposite.  We needed to instill team instead of Me.  I truly feel we are seeing that change.  I do see kids that want to win for their team mates.  But when one of these diva's leave we as a fan base give them a pass, it is okay because we should not hold up his development.  That in my mind is total bulls#!t.  You finish what you start, work harder, adapt and overcome.  Not tuck tail and run.  I know I am old school on this.  But standards have to be set and maintained.  

But you have to start with the right pieces.  I think Coach Frost is working towards that base.  It just takes time.  I have been waiting 20 years to see what I was used to seeing for many years before.  I can wait a few more, not happily but feel we need Coach Frost to succeed more than anything else.