Adrian Martinez

Guy Chamberlin said:
I think Adrian will be unleashed for his last season here, and he's going to have some great running games. For the team to be successful, he needs to complete 60 - 65% of his passes and cut the interceptions at least in half. I think that's totally doable, especially in Frost's ball control offense which uses a lot of high completion short passes. 

But it's the classic college system skillset, and I don't think it translates to the NFL at all.  Whether a straight up pocket passer or one of the new mobile QBs, you can't be missing the throws Adrian still misses. Even if it's windy. 
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He completed 71 percent of his passes last year and threw three interceptions in 151 attempts, which is an above average rate (two of which were in the last game; he had 1 INT in 123 attempts before that, which is really good). Say whatever you will about him, but completing a high number of passes and throwing a bunch of picks haven't really been his problems at NU.

Adrian absolutely checks every physical box to be drafted. The things that will keep him from being drafted are accuracy, quick decision making (especially diagnosing stuff pre-snap), fumbles, and his injury history. If he can show improvement on those I think he can have a big season and get picked in the draft. Wilson from BYU had a similar arc: showed talent as a freshman before injury/inconsistency/surrounding cast set him back and then he put it all together for a big last year (I am not saying he goes as high as Wilson lol don't start that)

 
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TheBugeater said:
1. 0% chance he ever plays in the NFL.
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Not sure what NFL you are watching but the one that has been on display for the past 20+ years doesn't give much of a rats about college stats and gives all the clout to measurables. AM has those. He has them in spades. He has arm strength, he has height, speed character, etc. The NFL knows they can teach him the rest. The only thing a phenomenal season does for him is put him drafted in the first two rounds vs 5th if he has a poor season. He can show in one pro day how much he brings to the table physically, and again, the NFL believe they can coach the rest into hall of fame level. 

 
Guy Chamberlin said:
I think Adrian will be unleashed for his last season here, and he's going to have some great running games. For the team to be successful, he needs to complete 60 - 65% of his passes and cut the interceptions at least in half. I think that's totally doable, especially in Frost's ball control offense which uses a lot of high completion short passes. 

But it's the classic college system skillset, and I don't think it translates to the NFL at all.  Whether a straight up pocket passer or one of the new mobile QBs, you can't be missing the throws Adrian still misses. Even if it's windy. 
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So he needs to drop his percentage down from the 71% he completed last year?

And I'm all for fewer INTs but he only threw three last year so it's not like that's a huge issue.  Johnny Manziel won a Heisman Trophy, was a first-round draft pick and was an NFL starter.  For his career at Texas A&M he threw one INT every 39 passes.  Martinez is currently at one INT every 37.

 
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Mavric said:
So he needs to drop his percentage down from the 71% he completed last year?

And I'm all for fewer INTs but he only threw three last year so it's not like that's a huge issue.  Johnny Manziel won a Heisman Trophy, was a first-round draft pick and is currently an NFL starter.  For his career at Texas A&M he threw one INT every 39 passes.  Martinez is currently at one INT every 37.
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He is not, Mavric.

 
Mavric said:
So he needs to drop his percentage down from the 71% he completed last year?

And I'm all for fewer INTs but he only threw three last year so it's not like that's a huge issue.  Johnny Manziel won a Heisman Trophy, was a first-round draft pick and was an NFL starter.  For his career at Texas A&M he threw one INT every 39 passes.  Martinez is currently at one INT every 37.
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Thanks for feeding me more Husker Juice when I think about better talent around him.

 
Remember, it's not just the NFL that has its doubts. A healthy third year Adrian Martinez was replaced with a Freshman by his own coach just a few months ago. Frost was looking for someone to execute more quickly and decisively, bring a little more energy.  So will the NFL.

I think Martinez responded really well to the demotion, and I'm feeling good about him getting super-focused to have the best season of his career. The NFL is obviously possible, but if I had to put real money on it, I'd say no. Tanner Lee is just an example of what the NFL is willing to overlook if you're a pocket passer of a certain height.

Adrian still checks a lot of the wrong buttons. I think pro teams are willing to build an offense around super talented QBs who bring high mobility to their game, but they have to be outstanding passers with great field vision like Mahomes, Josh Allen, Kylar Murray, and Russell Wilson. They're much less interested these days in the traditional dual threat QB, and won't go out of their way for a QB who runs better than he passes. 

It's not really a knock to say Martinez faces the same NFL likelihood as Tommy Armstrong, Taylor Martinez, Eric Crouch, Scott Frost, Tommie Frazier, or Turner Gill. Nebraska really doesn't recruit or develop pro-style quarterbacks. 

 
Guy Chamberlin said:
Remember, it's not just the NFL that has its doubts. A healthy third year Adrian Martinez was replaced with a Freshman by his own coach just a few months ago. Frost was looking for someone to execute more quickly and decisively, bring a little more energy.  So will the NFL.

I think Martinez responded really well to the demotion, and I'm feeling good about him getting super-focused to have the best season of his career. The NFL is obviously possible, but if I had to put real money on it, I'd say no. Tanner Lee is just an example of what the NFL is willing to overlook if you're a pocket passer of a certain height.

Adrian still checks a lot of the wrong buttons. I think pro teams are willing to build an offense around super talented QBs who bring high mobility to their game, but they have to be outstanding passers with great field vision like Mahomes, Josh Allen, Kylar Murray, and Russell Wilson. They're much less interested these days in the traditional dual threat QB, and won't go out of their way for a QB who runs better than he passes. 

It's not really a knock to say Martinez faces the same NFL likelihood as Tommy Armstrong, Taylor Martinez, Eric Crouch, Scott Frost, Tommie Frazier, or Turner Gill. Nebraska really doesn't recruit or develop pro-style quarterbacks. 
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I think he has a better arm than any of those guys, and Mariota didn't get dinged too bad for a similar scheme. But yeah, I'd pump the breaks on the NFL talk for now - there has not been a lot of consistency, and he's not Mariota. IMO he's been a lot better than his given credit for and does have a shot, but there's a lot of ground to make up for it to be realistic. I could see it happening, it's just going to take a very, very good year.

 
J-MAGIC said:
He completed 71 percent of his passes last year and threw three interceptions in 151 attempts, which is an above average rate (two of which were in the last game; he had 1 INT in 123 attempts before that, which is really good). Say whatever you will about him, but completing a high number of passes and throwing a bunch of picks haven't really been his problems at NU.

Adrian absolutely checks every physical box to be drafted. The things that will keep him from being drafted are accuracy, quick decision making (especially diagnosing stuff pre-snap), fumbles, and his injury history. If he can show improvement on those I think he can have a big season and get picked in the draft. Wilson from BYU had a similar arc: showed talent as a freshman before injury/inconsistency/surrounding cast set him back and then he put it all together for a big last year (I am not saying he goes as high as Wilson lol don't start that)
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I don't want to speak for Guy, but when he says 65% completion. I think what he is saying is 65% with a full passing playbook would be very good. Sure he was 71% last year but most of those were 5 yard passes. His completion percentage will go down and int's will go up if he is actually passing downfield. There is more risk and less completions doing that but we need that element added this year if we want to win more than 5 games. I would imagine if we passed more downfield his completion percentage would drop but his yards per game will go way up and so will TD's. The questions is can he limit the INT's

 
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Huskers93-97 said:
I don't want to speak for Guy, but when he says 65% completion. I think what he is saying is 65% with a full passing playbook would be very good. Sure he was 71% last year but most of those were 5 yard passes. His completion percentage will go down and int's will go up if he is actually passing downfield. There is more risk and less completions doing that but we need that element added this year if we want to win more than 5 games. I would imagine if we passed more downfield his completion percentage would drop but his yards per game will go way up and so will TD's. The questions is can he limit the INT's
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Trevor Lawrence basically led the nation in screen passes.  He completed 69% of his passes.  

That's how football works now-a-days.  

 
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