Analytical Season Projection
- Thread starter Mavric
- Start date
HuskermanMike
Starter
I will say we go 9-3 this year. I am gonna say we win against Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin and we drop Oregon early in the year or else the rest of that stays the same. It is pretty telling that we have basically two guaranteed losses, OSU and Penn State. Anything could happen but I am going to stick by my 9-3 prediction with a win against Wiscy, that game takes a lot out of us and we play super hard next week against Ohio State, but they wear us out in the fourth. Oregon on the road at night is never a fun situation, I am gonna say they make a play down the stretch and take that game. Happy Valley is not gonna be fun this year if you are a Nebraska fan, if we can contain Barkley for that game we may have a legit chance. We always play well against PSU, so that game will be within 6 points imo. We beat the teams we are supposed to and take down Iowa by two touchdowns.
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Caliborn72
Starter
Looks about right for everyone, no matter how positive or negative you feel. 4 gimmes, 2 games that don't look so good, and then a bunch of toss-ups where our team is going to have to dig deep and make some plays to decide what kind of season we have.
Anywhere from 6 (probably more like 7)wins to hopefully 9 or 10. That's what happens with so many variables changing.
Anywhere from 6 (probably more like 7)wins to hopefully 9 or 10. That's what happens with so many variables changing.
admo
Heisman Trophy Winner
The #'s for the projected W/L seems similar to ESPN power football index. Maybe a tough year is what the numbers think.
ESPN Football Power Index
Matchup predictor
HUSKERS:
81% vs Arkansas State 19% - Win
14.4% at Oregon 85.6% - L
84.4% vs Northern Illinois 15.6% - Win
82.3% Rutgers 17.7% - Win
63.6% at Illinois 36.4% - Win
17.3% vs Wisconsin 82.7% - L
05.0% vs OSU 95.0% - L
75.8% at Purdue 24.2% - Win
37.5% vs Northwestern 62.5% - L
50.6% at Minnesota 49.4% - TossUP
08.2% at Penn State 91.8% - L
46.7% vs Iowa 53.3% - TossUP
So 5 wins 5 losses and 2 coin flips
ESPN Football Power Index
Matchup predictor
HUSKERS:
81% vs Arkansas State 19% - Win
14.4% at Oregon 85.6% - L
84.4% vs Northern Illinois 15.6% - Win
82.3% Rutgers 17.7% - Win
63.6% at Illinois 36.4% - Win
17.3% vs Wisconsin 82.7% - L
05.0% vs OSU 95.0% - L
75.8% at Purdue 24.2% - Win
37.5% vs Northwestern 62.5% - L
50.6% at Minnesota 49.4% - TossUP
08.2% at Penn State 91.8% - L
46.7% vs Iowa 53.3% - TossUP
So 5 wins 5 losses and 2 coin flips
It'sNotAFakeID
All-American
You know what they say: there's lies, damned lies, and statistics. However, I only say that about stats I don't like
boach_clack
Four-Star Recruit
I think it will all come down to the Defense and the QB play. If Tanner Lee is able to control possession and defense doesnt give up big plays, we should be in position to win a few games. With that said, 9-3 is pretty lofty. Im thinking 8-4.
SuperBigFan69
Head Coach
How come when Riley was at OSU he was the amazing A or B type of coach...now he is D+?
zoogs
Assistant Coach
This is my first time seeing the schedule. Yeah, it seems quite possible to drop Wisc, Ohio St, Penn St, and Iowa -- and then flip one or two more games on top of that. Of course, a flip can also happen the other way, but 4-5 losses in the regular season isn't unreasonable. The story will be in the how. This is a tough slate and it'll be good to see how Nebraska stacks up against these teams.
But meh. "Analytics", take it for what it's worth.
But meh. "Analytics", take it for what it's worth.
Mary Pats BOB
Five-Star Recruit
We beat Iowa
Scratchtown
All-Conference
I don't understand the numbers even after the explanation. The categories they are trying to measure aren't even close to something that is comparable. How do you measure overall talent on the roster?
Riley isn't a D+ coach, and Taggart at Oregon is not an F- OC/HC
I don't understand how a coach who took bottom feeder Western Kentucky from 2-10 to 7-5 and a terrible tanking USF from 2-10 to 10-2 can be F-
The guy has never regressed in a year from the year prior. How is that an F-?
Riley isn't a D+ coach, and Taggart at Oregon is not an F- OC/HC
I don't understand how a coach who took bottom feeder Western Kentucky from 2-10 to 7-5 and a terrible tanking USF from 2-10 to 10-2 can be F-
The guy has never regressed in a year from the year prior. How is that an F-?
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I've been curious for awhile on where they get their talent numbers but I've never been able to find anything for sure. My guess is they're using something similar - or perhaps exactly - 247's roster talent numbers where they take the final recruiting rating for each player currently on the roster and add them up. Then they can compare the talent actually on the roster in a given year. Imperfect because it doesn't measure development but better than just using average class rating for the last few years because it accounts for attrition.