Another Appreciation of Tommy's Progress

[beorach]

Stat by stat, here's how the passing offense breaks down for Nebraska this season...relative to the bell curves set by performances in games between FBS teams only (no FBS vs. FCS) to date this season:

completions - well above average

percentage - well below average

yards per attempt - in the average range

touchdowns - statistically significant in the positive sense (17 when the national average is 10.57 and a standard deviation 5.3)

interceptions - well below average

rating - in the average range

yards per game - in the average range

Since another poster brought it to my attention, I feel the need to remind folks Nebraska has played more games than all but about 8 teams of the 128 in FBS (who have played the same number). Nebraska has a statistically significant amount of passing attempts relative to the bell curve, as you probably guessed.

Relative to the passing TD's, here's how the scoring offense looks for us:

total touchdowns - well above average

field goals - statistically significant in a positive sense (outlier on the bell curve)

points per game - average (another scheduling casualty)

 

[Mavric]

completions - well above average

percentage - well below average

yards per attempt - in the average range

So we're an average to slightly below average passing team who is racking up stats by sheer volume.

 

[BIG ERN]

Tommy's completion % by year:

2013 - 51.9%

2014 - 53.3%

2015 - 53.5%

Cannot rely on that percentage for the offense we are trying to run (103rd in FBS)

 

[beorach]

completions - well above average

percentage - well below average

yards per attempt - in the average range

So we're an average to slightly below average passing team who is racking up stats by sheer volume.

I guess I'd go with average to slightly above average because of the TD's but I can't argue with the overall statement. An important item to note is our red zone chances, red zone conversions (scoring), and red zone touchdowns are all positive outliers on the bell curve. The scoring percentage from the red zone, touchdown percentage from the red zone, and number of field goals from the red zone are all well above average. The only average stat Nebraska has for the red zone conversions category is field goal percentage. We're at 66.67% for converting a red zone appearance to a TD, 24.24% for a FG, and 9.09% to come up empty. I guess I wondered, when looking at an inordinate amount of passing TD's, whether we were unable to run it in because of our perceived lack of a strong running game and maybe penalties.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2015/leader/national/team/offense/split20/category27/sort01.html

It's also worth pointing out, perhaps, that Nebraska is tied for fifth in the conference (with Rutgers and Penn State) for passing stats evaluated in the fashion I've elaborated upon. Michigan State, Ohio State, and Indiana are the respective leaders. The breakdown for MSU is as follows:

completions - well above average (and they've also played 8 games against FBS teams this season)

percentage - average

yards per attempt - well above average

touchdowns - positive outlier (higher than the average plus one full standard deviation)

interceptions - positive outlier (lower than the average minus one full standard deviation)

rating - well above average

yards per game - average

p.s. - Sorry for going crazy with edits on this one but I wanted to add, in the spirit of the original post ITT, that Nebraska is now ranked 32nd nationally in passing yards per game.

 

[Mavric]

[No message]

 

[junior4949]

I also have to ask if Gill, Frazier, Crouch and Frost had played with historically bad Nebraska defenses -- as Armstrong and Martinez did -- would they have won enough games to still be great?

Not sure how this is even a question to be honest. Gill, Frazier, Crouch and Frost didn't directly contribute to their teams losing nearly as much as Armstrong and Martinez have regardless of which group had the better defense helping them. It's not even close. The former group made plays like no other group of qb's in Nebraska history. They were consistent besides just being light years better quarterbacks, better leaders and far more consistent playmakers.

Yeah, but this misses the whole team concept. Gill, Frazier, Crouch and Frost made plays like no other quarterback while standing behind an offensive line of All-Americans and Outland Award Winners.

Armstrong and Martinez had nothing close to that kind of pass protection, nor the security of knowing we could make a 3rd and 2 on sheer push. The drop off in offensive line talent has been steep and deep.

Gill, Frazier, Crouch and Frost benefitted from outstanding defenses, or at least Top 20 defenses --- far above what we have today. They were very inaccurate passers by today's standards, but when they threw a bad pass they weren't contributing to the team losing, because the defense would generally get them the ball back and keep the game close. The offense could afford a slow start and some missed opportunities because we could wear a team down in the second half. Armstrong and Martinez felt like they had to do something dramatic and risky because they generally did. They made at least as many spectacular plays as Gill, Frazier, Crouch and Frost, and I would never question their competitive fire, but what they didn't do with consistency was win.

Surely you understand the difference of having a defense that gives up 27 points a game, versus a defense that gives up 8 points a game, and how that might affect an offense.

As great as Tommie Frazier was, does his leadership plug the holes in an offensive line or defensive secondary?

I mean, it is an honest question. Did Gill, Frazier, Crouch and Frost benefit from having better and more complete teams behind them, and might that be the difference between legend and statistic?

To some degree, this has already been answered. The 1994 season is the answer. Frazier goes down with an injury early in the season. Berringer comes in with little to no drop off. We go down to Manhattan, KS to take on a top 20 team with Turman. There's your answer.

Both Martinez and Armstrong would be viewed differently had they played two decades earlier. Had Martinez had the players around him that other QBs earlier did, he more than likely goes down as #1 or #2 as a fan favorite.

 

[beorach]

W/r/t KK, here's the % of total yards gained rushing per B1G team in descending order:

Ohio State 53.16% Northwestern 53.06% Iowa 51.29% Michigan 49.36% Maryland 47.47% Minnesota 44.65% Penn State 43.26% Rutgers 41.19% Nebraska 40.97% Indiana 38.11% Michigan State 37.46% Wisconsin 37.45% Purdue 36.24% Illinois 33.36%

p.s. - Nebraska has rushed exactly one more time than they've passed this season, per CFBSTATS.com. I'm not sure where Kugler is getting his figures but this has nothing to do with my pruning the games against teams from lower divisions (because good old Nebraska U didn't do that this season).

p.p.s. - Kugler has it wrong for Wisconsin, too, if I can believe CFBSTATS.com. I even checked to see if they had played a lower division team but that wasn't the case. He indicated he's using Stats, Inc., and that the site "[d]oesn't account for pass plays that turn into runs, sacks, etc."

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

Tommy's completion % by year:

2013 - 51.9%

2014 - 53.3%

2015 - 53.5%

Cannot rely on that percentage for the offense we are trying to run (103rd in FBS)

Nope.

And it's not like we need Tommy Armstrong to be Aaron Rodgers, either.

This year, a mere 58% passer could be winning these same games.

Connor Cook has actually seen his numbers drop from 58.7% his Sophomore year, to 57.5% this year, and he's considered the most NFL ready QB in college football.

 

[BIG ERN]

Tommy's completion % by year:

2013 - 51.9%

2014 - 53.3%

2015 - 53.5%

Cannot rely on that percentage for the offense we are trying to run (103rd in FBS)

Nope.

And it's not like we need Tommy Armstrong to be Aaron Rodgers, either.

This year, a mere 58% passer could be winning these same games.

Connor Cook has actually seen his numbers drop from 58.7% his Sophomore year, to 57.5% this year, and he's considered the most NFL ready QB in college football.

Agreed. The thing Cook does well is he doesn't turn the ball over. 17 TDs 2 INTs this season. Doesn't hurt to have somewhat of a run game and defense as well.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

The QBs who handed the ball off the most are the "best"

Does that mean that you would prefer an Armstrong over a Humm, Ferragamo, Frazier, Gill, Frost, Gdowski, Ganz, Crouch, or Beringer? If so, which ones are would it be all of them?

Humm was a career 55% passer and threw 40 interceptions in three seasons. Osborne benched Humm in his final game, the 1974 Sugar Bowl, after Humm threw 4 interceptions in the first half. Unremarkable second stringer Terry Luck led the team to victory. I take Tommy over Humm.

Ferragamo? Pure passer and great play action quarterback. Ferragamo over Armstrong.

Armstrong does everything better than Scott Frost, except hand the ball off to Ahman Green. Please recall that in Scott Frost's Junior year, he wasn't exactly trusted or beloved, either. And that was a talent-laden team. I'd take Armstrong. Seriously.

Frazier and Gill had great teams around them, too, but they had an impeccable cool that rubbed off on everybody. The stats don't tell the story there. They were great QBs, decision makers and leaders in an offensive system designed for their skills. I'll take Frazier and Gill over Armstrong any day of the week, but few college teams would ever have allowed them to be quarterback. I cannot promise you how great Tommie Frazier would be with the pulling guards on our current offensive line, or Terrell Newby in the role of Lawrence Phillips.

Crouch? I suppose. Again, that was an offense built for running backs and running quarterbacks who weren't required to complete more than 50% of their passes. Armstrong might have thrived in it, a comparable runner and a better passer, if not quite the decision maker.

Berringer and Ganz could complete passes, minimize mistakes and let the running backs handle most of the running. If we had to drop a quarterback into today's Nebraska team, I'd take their game management and consistency over Armstrong.

Gerry Gdowski? Now that might be the most underrated QB of the bunch. I'd start him on this team in a heartbeat. Although he's probably near 50 by now.

But since we'll never get to see Tommy Armstrong with a vintage Nebraska offensive line, and a defense that doesn't inspire panic, it's hard to say where he fits in. But I'd wager there were many seasons where Tom Osborne would have loved to have him.

Tommy also has one more season. His story isn't written yet, but I sure wanted his Junior year to look better than this.

 

[MichiganDad3]

completions - well above average

percentage - well below average

yards per attempt - in the average range

So we're an average to slightly below average passing team who is racking up stats by sheer volume.

With a high number of interceptions

 

[Bowfin]

Gerry Gdowski? Now that might be the most underrated QB of the bunch. I'd start him on this team in a heartbeat.

Agreed!

Gdowski averaged 7.92 yards per carry and a quarterback rating of 177.3...even though he didn't have the minimum number of pass attempts to qualify for the season, that would have been (and still would be) an NCAA record.

I remember the KFAB announcers in 1988 wondering aloud and on air if Nebraska could have gone undefeated that year after seeing Gdowski been the starter.

For you youngsters, this was Gerry Gdowski: http://www.huskers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATCLID=1088775

 

[BigRedBuster]

The QBs who handed the ball off the most are the "best"

Does that mean that you would prefer an Armstrong over a Humm, Ferragamo, Frazier, Gill, Frost, Gdowski, Ganz, Crouch, or Beringer? If so, which ones are would it be all of them?

Humm was a career 55% passer and threw 40 interceptions in three seasons. Osborne benched Humm in his final game, the 1974 Sugar Bowl, after Humm threw 4 interceptions in the first half. Unremarkable second stringer Terry Luck led the team to victory. I take Tommy over Humm.

Ferragamo? Pure passer and great play action quarterback. Ferragamo over Armstrong.

Armstrong does everything better than Scott Frost, except hand the ball off to Ahman Green. Please recall that in Scott Frost's Junior year, he wasn't exactly trusted or beloved, either. And that was a talent-laden team. I'd take Armstrong. Seriously.

Frazier and Gill had great teams around them, too, but they had an impeccable cool that rubbed off on everybody. The stats don't tell the story there. They were great QBs, decision makers and leaders in an offensive system designed for their skills. I'll take Frazier and Gill over Armstrong any day of the week, but few college teams would ever have allowed them to be quarterback. I cannot promise you how great Tommie Frazier would be with the pulling guards on our current offensive line, or Terrell Newby in the role of Lawrence Phillips.

Crouch? I suppose. Again, that was an offense built for running backs and running quarterbacks who weren't required to complete more than 50% of their passes. Armstrong might have thrived in it, a comparable runner and a better passer, if not quite the decision maker.

Berringer and Ganz could complete passes, minimize mistakes and let the running backs handle most of the running. If we had to drop a quarterback into today's Nebraska team, I'd take their game management and consistency over Armstrong.

Gerry Gdowski? Now that might be the most underrated QB of the bunch. I'd start him on this team in a heartbeat. Although he's probably near 50 by now.

But since we'll never get to see Tommy Armstrong with a vintage Nebraska offensive line, and a defense that doesn't inspire panic, it's hard to say where he fits in. But I'd wager there were many seasons where Tom Osborne would have loved to have him.

Tommy also has one more season. His story isn't written yet, but I sure wanted his Junior year to look better than this.

Good post and I can't disagree with much. One comment though. Crouch was a better runner than Armstrong. He was absolutely amazing in that he had the side to side quickness of a really good running back and he was also the fastest guy on the field.

I guess you could say he was Martinez with a lot of shiftiness too.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

completions - well above average

percentage - well below average

yards per attempt - in the average range

So we're an average to slightly below average passing team who is racking up stats by sheer volume.

With a high number of interceptions

More than I'd like, but still in the realm of the Texas Tech, TCU, BYU, UCLA, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Mississippi, USC, Arkansas, Toledo, Wisconsin and Cal quarterbacks.

 

[suh_fan93]

I also have to ask if Gill, Frazier, Crouch and Frost had played with historically bad Nebraska defenses -- as Armstrong and Martinez did -- would they have won enough games to still be great?

Not sure how this is even a question to be honest. Gill, Frazier, Crouch and Frost didn't directly contribute to their teams losing nearly as much as Armstrong and Martinez have regardless of which group had the better defense helping them. It's not even close. The former group made plays like no other group of qb's in Nebraska history. They were consistent besides just being light years better quarterbacks, better leaders and far more consistent playmakers.

Surely you understand the difference of having a defense that gives up 27 points a game, versus a defense that gives up 8 points a game, and how that might affect an offense.

It isn't the current defenses fault (or last years) every time Armstrong throws an interception or kills a drive by not even coming close to hitting his receiver. How many pick 6's does Armstrong have in his short career? 2 if I'm correct. Was it the defenses fault he threw those? If anything Armstrong has been a hindrance to the defense by putting them back on the field more with his turnovers and overall lack of execution at the QB position. The exact same thing can be said for Martinez. Was it his defenses fault that he led the NCAA in turnovers 2 years in a row???? Here's a hint: it wasn't.

Surely you understand that it isn't the defenses fault for the way they played when they had the ball in their hands right?????

I can't believe I'm in a conversation with someone trying to compare Tommy Armstrong and Taylor Martinez abilities with Turner Gill and Eric Crouch by using their respective teams defenses as an excuse for how they themselves actually played quarterback...