Athlon Sports: Big Ten Predictions 2016

[Saunders]

While most of the preseason attention is focused on Ohio State and Michigan, Iowa and Michigan State – the two division winners from 2016 – shouldn’t be overlooked. The Spartans suffered some key personnel losses, but coach Mark Dantonio should have this team back in the mix for 10 wins. The Hawkeyes return one of the nation’s top defenders in cornerback Desmond King and enter the season as the clear favorite in the West Division. Wisconsin has the talent to push Iowa for the top spot, but the Badgers face a brutal schedule in coach Paul Chryst’s second year in Madison. Nebraska could be the biggest threat to the Hawkeyes if Mike Riley’s team quickly retools on the defensive line and cuts down on the turnovers after a minus-19 margin in 2015...

Big Ten East

Ohio State: (9-0) 12-1

Michigan: (8-1) 11-1

Michigan State: (7-2) 9-3

Penn State: (5-4) 7-5

Indiana: (3-6) 7-5

Maryland: (2-7) 5-7

Rutgers: (1-8) 3-9

Big Ten West

Iowa: (7-2) 10-3

Nebraska: (6-3) 8-4

Wisconsin: (5-4) 7-5

Northwestern: (4-5) 7-5

Minnesota: (3-6) 6-6

Illinois: (2-7) 4-8

Purdue: (1-8) 3-9

Big Ten Championship

OSU over Iowa

http://athlonsports.com/college-football/big-ten-football-2016-predictions

 

[huKSer]

Nebraska could be the biggest threat to the Hawkeyes if Mike Riley’s team quickly retools on the defensive line and cuts down on the turnovers after a minus-19 margin in 2015..

The author gets all of his info from Huskerboard

 

[HuskerExpat]

Iowa will not win the division. Iowa was incredibly lucky last year and then their luck ran out and they were exposed in post-season play. Iowa is going to lose four conference games (some combination of Michigan, Penn St., Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota or Northwestern).

 

[Scratchtown]

Iowa was lucky? They had MSU on the freaking ropes in a huge game where both teams had something to play for.

They laid an egg against stanford, so what?

I hate Iowa but damn let's be honest here. They weren't overly impressive but neither was 2002 ohio state all year that year.

Don't let emotion cloud reality and judgement

 

[Landlord]

Iowa was lucky? They had MSU on the freaking ropes in a huge game where both teams had something to play for.

They laid an egg against stanford, so what?

I hate Iowa but damn let's be honest here. They weren't overly impressive but neither was 2002 ohio state all year that year.

Don't let emotion cloud reality and judgement

People sometimes call me an Iowa apologist on here because I call out the baseless and pointless sh#t talking about them. They were a really good team that played their style of football, played the schedule they were given, and didn't go 12-0 by accident. That championship game against MSU was an incredible slugfest.

 

[Savage Husker]

Iowa was lucky? They had MSU on the freaking ropes in a huge game where both teams had something to play for.

They laid an egg against stanford, so what?

I hate Iowa but damn let's be honest here. They weren't overly impressive but neither was 2002 ohio state all year that year.

Don't let emotion cloud reality and judgement

People sometimes call me an Iowa apologist on here because I call out the baseless and pointless sh#t talking about them. They were a really good team that played their style of football, played the schedule they were given, and didn't go 12-0 by accident. That championship game against MSU was an incredible slugfest.

They deserved what they received and earned their place by playing clean football and creating opportunities. I would like to have a season like theirs. However, I just believe they were the worst of the "best" and I don't think they can replicate, nor build off last season.

 

[funhusker]

Iowa was lucky? They had MSU on the freaking ropes in a huge game where both teams had something to play for.

They laid an egg against stanford, so what?

I hate Iowa but damn let's be honest here. They weren't overly impressive but neither was 2002 ohio state all year that year.

Don't let emotion cloud reality and judgement

People sometimes call me an Iowa apologist on here because I call out the baseless and pointless sh#t talking about them. They were a really good team that played their style of football, played the schedule they were given, and didn't go 12-0 by accident. That championship game against MSU was an incredible slugfest.

They deserved what they received and earned their place by playing clean football and creating opportunities. I would like to have a season like theirs. However, I just believe they were the worst of the "best" and I don't think they can replicate, nor build off last season.

I don't think they will replicate 12-0, but I think they get to 10 wins which will most likely get them to the CC Game. I would much rather the Huskers be the "worst of the best" than the "best of the worst" like last season....

 

[Saunders]

Iowa was lucky? They had MSU on the freaking ropes in a huge game where both teams had something to play for.

They laid an egg against stanford, so what?

I hate Iowa but damn let's be honest here. They weren't overly impressive but neither was 2002 ohio state all year that year.

Don't let emotion cloud reality and judgement

We aren't. All the advanced stats and power rankings show that Iowa was closer to a top 40 ranked team than a top 10 ranked team.

FEI: http://www.bcftoys.com/2015-fei

F+: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

S&P+: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

FPI: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2016/team/

Nebraska and Iowa weren't that much different teams last year, other than turnover margin.

 

[HuskerExpat]

Iowa was lucky? They had MSU on the freaking ropes in a huge game where both teams had something to play for.

They laid an egg against stanford, so what?

I hate Iowa but damn let's be honest here. They weren't overly impressive but neither was 2002 ohio state all year that year.

Don't let emotion cloud reality and judgement

Having MSU on the ropes last year was not all that impressive. MSU got exposed against Alabama. They beat Michigan only because of a miracle on the final play. They beat OSU only because the game was played in a monsoon and Tim Beck decided not to give the ball to his Heisman candidate running back. They lost to our 6-7 team.

Iowa should have lost to Wisconsin also but for some incredible luck in getting turnovers deep inside the red zone. Iowa's most impressive win was probably against Northwestern. If you're most impressive win is against Northwestern (which didn't really look that great last year despite beating our 6-7 Nebraska team by 2 points).

So yes, by a combination of schedule and fortunate bounces, Iowa definitely got lucky last year to finish the regular season undefeated.

 

[HuskerExpat]

Iowa was lucky? They had MSU on the freaking ropes in a huge game where both teams had something to play for.

They laid an egg against stanford, so what?

I hate Iowa but damn let's be honest here. They weren't overly impressive but neither was 2002 ohio state all year that year.

Don't let emotion cloud reality and judgement

We aren't. All the advanced stats and power rankings show that Iowa was closer to a top 40 ranked team than a top 10 ranked team.

FEI: http://www.bcftoys.com/2015-fei

F+: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

S&P+: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

FPI: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2016/team/

Nebraska and Iowa weren't that much different teams last year, other than turnover margin.

Exactly.

 

[Scratchtown]

Iowa was lucky? They had MSU on the freaking ropes in a huge game where both teams had something to play for.

They laid an egg against stanford, so what?

I hate Iowa but damn let's be honest here. They weren't overly impressive but neither was 2002 ohio state all year that year.

Don't let emotion cloud reality and judgement

We aren't. All the advanced stats and power rankings show that Iowa was closer to a top 40 ranked team than a top 10 ranked team.

FEI: http://www.bcftoys.com/2015-fei

F+: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

S&P+: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

FPI: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2016/team/

Nebraska and Iowa weren't that much different teams last year, other than turnover margin.

Except that Iowa was 12-1 and NU was 6-7 and got to a bowl game on a technicality.

Good thing all of that matters in the grand scheme of things though.

20 years from now, hell, 10 years from now no one is going to give a freaking S#%t about that crap (NU fan will I guess). They will see that Iowa was 12-1 on the year and lost in a major bowl game.

 

[Scratchtown]

Iowa was lucky? They had MSU on the freaking ropes in a huge game where both teams had something to play for.

They laid an egg against stanford, so what?

I hate Iowa but damn let's be honest here. They weren't overly impressive but neither was 2002 ohio state all year that year.

Don't let emotion cloud reality and judgement

Having MSU on the ropes last year was not all that impressive. MSU got exposed against Alabama. They beat Michigan only because of a miracle on the final play. They beat OSU only because the game was played in a monsoon and Tim Beck decided not to give the ball to his Heisman candidate running back. They lost to our 6-7 team.

Iowa should have lost to Wisconsin also but for some incredible luck in getting turnovers deep inside the red zone. Iowa's most impressive win was probably against Northwestern. If you're most impressive win is against Northwestern (which didn't really look that great last year despite beating our 6-7 Nebraska team by 2 points).

So yes, by a combination of schedule and fortunate bounces, Iowa definitely got lucky last year to finish the regular season undefeated.

Bolded 1 - This is funny. Not because its untrue, but because that's the completely wrong word to use in what you are trying to say. Michigan State was good, but not Bama good and if anyone thought that going into their bowl game they might need their brain examined. Exposed. Ha! Steph Curry is getting exposed. Being exposed is when you get shown that you really aren't that great but you give the illusion that you are. MSU was not great, and they didn't give an illusion that they were either.

Bolded 2 - While I agree this situation is probably the most rare/bizarre of any final play I've ever seen. You are supposed to execute for 60 minutes. Michigan didn't. They lost and it's the game of football. You never know. The returner could have taken it to the house as well.

Bolded 3 - It's funny how this is the default "go to " for a spectator. Instead of talking about what MSU did well to contain OSU's offense. Lets say that *Insert Coach X here* or in this case Tim Beck sabotaged the game when we have no idea what their game plan was. Elliot was mad, and even Urban made some comments about play calling...I get that. However you ARE saying that OSU should beat MSU 10/10 times? Upsets happen, they aren't always luck. Actually they are never luck. Luck would be to go in with ZERO PREPARATION and pull out a victory by picking random plays out of a hat.

Bolded 4 - It's luck because human beings made an error by not holding on to the football? Or that the center stepped on the QB's foot? Was it luck that TxTech recovered LeKevin Smith's fumble after an INT back in 2005? Or was TxTech given the opportunity to capitalize on an NU players idiotic mistake? I will give you a hint. It wasn't luck.

MSU vs NU comment - I suppose it can't be called luck that NU got away with an illegal play (unflagged) to essentially win the game right? After all, the rest of the things you've described as luck were the exact same kind of thing that happened for NU to win that MSU game. Because you know football is a game of luck. It can be any one random play in the game.

 

[HuskerExpat]

Iowa was lucky? They had MSU on the freaking ropes in a huge game where both teams had something to play for.

They laid an egg against stanford, so what?

I hate Iowa but damn let's be honest here. They weren't overly impressive but neither was 2002 ohio state all year that year.

Don't let emotion cloud reality and judgement

Having MSU on the ropes last year was not all that impressive. MSU got exposed against Alabama. They beat Michigan only because of a miracle on the final play. They beat OSU only because the game was played in a monsoon and Tim Beck decided not to give the ball to his Heisman candidate running back. They lost to our 6-7 team.

Iowa should have lost to Wisconsin also but for some incredible luck in getting turnovers deep inside the red zone. Iowa's most impressive win was probably against Northwestern. If you're most impressive win is against Northwestern (which didn't really look that great last year despite beating our 6-7 Nebraska team by 2 points).

So yes, by a combination of schedule and fortunate bounces, Iowa definitely got lucky last year to finish the regular season undefeated.

Bolded 1 - This is funny. Not because its untrue, but because that's the completely wrong word to use in what you are trying to say. Michigan State was good, but not Bama good and if anyone thought that going into their bowl game they might need their brain examined. Exposed. Ha! Steph Curry is getting exposed. Being exposed is when you get shown that you really aren't that great but you give the illusion that you are. MSU was not great, and they didn't give an illusion that they were either.

Bolded 2 - While I agree this situation is probably the most rare/bizarre of any final play I've ever seen. You are supposed to execute for 60 minutes. Michigan didn't. They lost and it's the game of football. You never know. The returner could have taken it to the house as well.

Bolded 3 - It's funny how this is the default "go to " for a spectator. Instead of talking about what MSU did well to contain OSU's offense. Lets say that *Insert Coach X here* or in this case Tim Beck sabotaged the game when we have no idea what their game plan was. Elliot was mad, and even Urban made some comments about play calling...I get that. However you ARE saying that OSU should beat MSU 10/10 times? Upsets happen, they aren't always luck. Actually they are never luck. Luck would be to go in with ZERO PREPARATION and pull out a victory by picking random plays out of a hat.

Bolded 4 - It's luck because human beings made an error by not holding on to the football? Or that the center stepped on the QB's foot? Was it luck that TxTech recovered LeKevin Smith's fumble after an INT back in 2005? Or was TxTech given the opportunity to capitalize on an NU players idiotic mistake? I will give you a hint. It wasn't luck.

MSU vs NU comment - I suppose it can't be called luck that NU got away with an illegal play (unflagged) to essentially win the game right? After all, the rest of the things you've described as luck were the exact same kind of thing that happened for NU to win that MSU game. Because you know football is a game of luck. It can be any one random play in the game.

My interpretation of your comments is that it is not luck when fortunate things happened to allow MSU and Iowa to win, but it was luck when MSU lost to Nebraska. Strange that you only refer to luck when it refutes results that don't support your position but luck is irrelevant if your position is supported by the results. But going with that thought for a moment, a "good team" would never have allowed themselves to be in a position to lose on a "bad call" in the closing minute of the game against a substandard team that finished 6-7. MSU was the textbook definition of a "pretender" last year.

The fact is that "luck" is a huge element in the results of football games. There is a huge element of luck to turnovers. Even if you "force" a fumble, the element of luck almost always is the primary factor in determining which team recovers. With a significantly large sample size, almost any coach, team or whatever doesn't do a whole lot better or worse than 50% in games decided by one score or less. Why is that? Because the element of luck ends up being the prevailing factor in a majority of one score games and you can't escape that.

Anecdotally, there are teams every year that are labeled pretenders vs. contenders. Both Iowa and MSU were pretenders last year. They were both better than average, but nowhere near as good as their results dictated. MSU got extraordinarily lucky in a number of games and was 5-1 in games decided by one score or less (against a bunch of substandard teams). Iowa got lucky in a number of different ways (fortunate turnovers, easy conference schedule, etc).

 

[Landlord]

Having MSU on the ropes last year was not all that impressive. MSU got exposed against Alabama. They beat Michigan only because of a miracle on the final play. They beat OSU only because the game was played in a monsoon and Tim Beck decided not to give the ball to his Heisman candidate running back. They lost to our 6-7 team.

Iowa should have lost to Wisconsin also but for some incredible luck in getting turnovers deep inside the red zone. Iowa's most impressive win was probably against Northwestern. If you're most impressive win is against Northwestern (which didn't really look that great last year despite beating our 6-7 Nebraska team by 2 points).

So yes, by a combination of schedule and fortunate bounces, Iowa definitely got lucky last year to finish the regular season undefeated.

So when other teams in our division win, they got lucky, but when they lose, that's what should have happened, and when we win we deserve it, and when we lose, our opponents just got lucky because they shouldn't have beaten us.

They deserved what they received and earned their place by playing clean football and creating opportunities. I would like to have a season like theirs. However, I just believe they were the worst of the "best" and I don't think they can replicate, nor build off last season.

That's fine, but did you think they could go 12-0 last season? Yeah, me neither.

 

[GBRFAN]

Iowa was lucky? They had MSU on the freaking ropes in a huge game where both teams had something to play for.

They laid an egg against stanford, so what?

I hate Iowa but damn let's be honest here. They weren't overly impressive but neither was 2002 ohio state all year that year.

Don't let emotion cloud reality and judgement

Having MSU on the ropes last year was not all that impressive. MSU got exposed against Alabama. They beat Michigan only because of a miracle on the final play. They beat OSU only because the game was played in a monsoon and Tim Beck decided not to give the ball to his Heisman candidate running back. They lost to our 6-7 team.

Iowa should have lost to Wisconsin also but for some incredible luck in getting turnovers deep inside the red zone. Iowa's most impressive win was probably against Northwestern. If you're most impressive win is against Northwestern (which didn't really look that great last year despite beating our 6-7 Nebraska team by 2 points).

So yes, by a combination of schedule and fortunate bounces, Iowa definitely got lucky last year to finish the regular season undefeated.

Bolded 1 - This is funny. Not because its untrue, but because that's the completely wrong word to use in what you are trying to say. Michigan State was good, but not Bama good and if anyone thought that going into their bowl game they might need their brain examined. Exposed. Ha! Steph Curry is getting exposed. Being exposed is when you get shown that you really aren't that great but you give the illusion that you are. MSU was not great, and they didn't give an illusion that they were either.

Bolded 2 - While I agree this situation is probably the most rare/bizarre of any final play I've ever seen. You are supposed to execute for 60 minutes. Michigan didn't. They lost and it's the game of football. You never know. The returner could have taken it to the house as well.

Bolded 3 - It's funny how this is the default "go to " for a spectator. Instead of talking about what MSU did well to contain OSU's offense. Lets say that *Insert Coach X here* or in this case Tim Beck sabotaged the game when we have no idea what their game plan was. Elliot was mad, and even Urban made some comments about play calling...I get that. However you ARE saying that OSU should beat MSU 10/10 times? Upsets happen, they aren't always luck. Actually they are never luck. Luck would be to go in with ZERO PREPARATION and pull out a victory by picking random plays out of a hat.

Bolded 4 - It's luck because human beings made an error by not holding on to the football? Or that the center stepped on the QB's foot? Was it luck that TxTech recovered LeKevin Smith's fumble after an INT back in 2005? Or was TxTech given the opportunity to capitalize on an NU players idiotic mistake? I will give you a hint. It wasn't luck.

MSU vs NU comment - I suppose it can't be called luck that NU got away with an illegal play (unflagged) to essentially win the game right? After all, the rest of the things you've described as luck were the exact same kind of thing that happened for NU to win that MSU game. Because you know football is a game of luck. It can be any one random play in the game.

Can you explain what play you are talking about?